Country profile - Future developments (Poland)

Projections for the next decade are highly uncertain. Both the birth and death rates are expected to remain low and close to each other, thus making a future population growth unlikely. Despite the 2008-2009 financial crisis, economic performance is expected to improve with a 5 % annual GDP growth rate adopted in some scenarios. Over a ten-year period, this implies an increase of 63 %. Decoupling economic growth from environmental pollution makes it possible to keep emission levels down. With most of the stationary industrial sources under control, the future of environmental quality depends on consumer behaviour. Two areas seem to be crucial in this respect. The first is car ownership. This has been growing very fast, but is still much below the EU level. If Poles wish to replicate western European patterns, then the emissions of nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide are likely to grow despite the fact that new cars will comply with stricter standards. The second is thermal insulation of buildings. Some government policies have been deployed to reduce energy consumption in the housing sector. If they are successful, then the pressure from municipal sources can be expected to decline, despite rising living standards.

Agriculture remains an important factor in the country's environmental performance. For historical reasons, small holdings with low chemical inputs prevail in Poland. Their economic efficiency is poor, but their overall impact on water quality and biodiversity preservation is positive. Nevertheless, there is a strong pressure to improve the commercial viability of this sector. Unfortunately, this tendency will be difficult to reconcile with environmental protection.

By all standards, the biological diversity preserved in Poland ranks among the highest in Europe. To some extent, this is caused by geophysical factors, such as location at the border of two climatic zones or along bird migration routes. At the same time, however, it reflects the country's history, and especially its diverse development patterns in the 19th century. On top of that, since 1918, there have been continued attempts to strengthen protection measures with respect to the most valuable ecosystems. There are now more than twenty national parks, several biosphere reserves, and over 300 Natura 2000 sites. The main challenge faced by the government is to meet the expectations of Poland becoming an economically important member of the EU and a strong trading partner in the global economy without losing the country's natural heritage.

References and links:

Lloyd Timberlake, ’Poland--The Most Polluted Country in the World?’ New Scientist, October 22, 1981, p. 219
Link to ’Ochrona Środowiska GUS 2008‘, http://www.stat.gov.pl/cps/rde/xbcr/gus/PUBL_RLS_ochrona_srodowiska_2008r.pdf

Link to data compiled by the Ministry of Economy, http://www.mg.gov.pl/NR/rdonlyres/C14A5DE8-7236-4770-A72D-44D7A0454F93/49232/Polska_podstatowe_wielkosci_i_wskazniki.pdf

Link to the government report ’Polska 2030‘: http://www.polska2030.pl/