GHG emission trends and projections under the scope of the Effort Sharing Decision

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The ‘with existing measures’ scenario reflects existing policies and measures, while the ‘with additional measures’ scenario takes into account the additional effects of planned measures reported by Member States. For the most part, these projections were reported in 2015 and therefore do not reflect the expected effects of recent policy proposals such as the reform of the EU ETS and other measures in non-ETS sectors for the period after 2020.

Methodology:

Based on data reported by Member States under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (Regulation (EU) No 525/2013):
• 1990-2014 historic trends from national greenhouse gas inventories submitted by 10/08/2016;
• 2015 approximated inventories submitted by 31/07/2016;
• projections submitted by Member States in 2015. 8 Member States submitted updates in 2016.
Trends for ESD emissions are based on an allocation of 1990-2015 GHG inventory data to either the ETS or non-ETS sectors, at source category level, based on a fixed percentage for each of the source categories defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the reporting of national GHG inventories:
• Transport (without aviation) (IPCC sector 1A3): 100 % ESD;
• Buildings (residential and commercial sector, IPCC sectors 1.A.4 and 1.A.5): 99 % ESD;
• Agriculture (IPCC sector 3): 100 % ESD;
• Industry:
- Energy industries (IPCC sectors 1.A.1, 1.B and 1.C): 10 % ESD;
- Manufacturing and construction sector (IPCC sector 1.A.2): 29 % ESD;
- Industrial processes sector (IPCC sector 2): 40 % ESD;
• Waste (IPCC sector 5): 100 % ESD;
• Aviation (IPCC sector 1A3a and memo item international bunkers): 0 % ESD.
Projections are reported by source categories. Only for Poland, the separation of ETS GHG emissions into source categories was partly carried out by applying average sectoral percentages to total ETS GHG emissions.