World Population Prospects, the 2015 revision

External Data Spec Published 01 Jun 2016
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UN world population prospects: The 2015 revision  

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Population trends 1950 – 2100: globally and within Europe Population is defined as the “de facto population in a country, area or region as of 1 July of the year indicated” ( UN, 2015b ). Population changes from one year to another are due to natural population change (the difference between the number of live births and deaths during a given time period) ( Eurostat, 2015 ) and net migration (the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants) ( UN, 2015b ) in a given country or region. The figures presented in this indicator include population estimates for 1950-2015 and eight projection variants for 2015-2100. These projection variants have been developed by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) on the basis of varying assumptions related to fertility rates, mortality rates and international migration (for details see the Methodology section). The table below summarises the eight projection variants as defined in the World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision ( UN, 2015a ). Assumptions Projection variant Fertility Mortality International migration Low fertility Low Normal Normal Medium fertility Medium Normal Normal High fertility High Normal Normal Constant fertility Constant as of 2010–2015 Normal Normal Instant replacement fertility Instant replacement as of 2015-2020 Normal Normal Constant mortality Medium Constant as of 2010–2015 Normal No change Constant as of 2010–2015 Constant as of 2010–2015 Normal Zero-migration Medium Normal Zero as of 2015–2020 Time horizon: 1950-2100 Geographical coverage: global, with specific attention to world regions and Europe. World regions are specified as defined by the United Nations Population Division - Department of Economic and Social Affairs: Asia, Africa, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern America and Oceania. References Eurostat, 2015, ' Glossary: Natural population change ' UN, 2015a, 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 revision'   UN, 2015b, 'World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision — Glossary of demographic terms'  
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