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Trends and projections: limited rebound in EU emissions amid post-pandemic recovery and energy crisis

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News Published 26 Oct 2022 Last modified 16 Mar 2023
4 min read
Photo: © Karsten Würth on Unsplash
Greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption rose in 2021 due mostly to Europe’s post-pandemic recovery, according to the latest ‘Trends and Projections’ report published today by the European Environment Agency (EEA). Most EU Member States successfully achieved the EU’s 2020 climate and energy targets and are now turning their sights toward climate neutrality while also addressing the current energy supply crisis. Achieving the more ambitious 2030 climate and energy targets will demand more than a doubling of annual progress in the roll-out of renewables, the reduction of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

Saving energy and strengthening renewable energy sources are critical not only to tackle the immediate energy crisis but also to achieve climate neutrality.

Hans Bruyninckx, EEA Executive Director

Following a long period of falling greenhouse gas emissions in Europe, economic recovery from the Covid-19 lockdowns has led to an increase in emissions, particularly in the transport, industry and energy supply sectors, according to data reported for the EEA report Trends and Projections in Europe 2022. With a looming energy crisis and in particular a high gas price, the energy supply sector saw a partial switch to more carbon-intensive energy fuels, while the strong growth in renewable energy observed in recent years lost pace in 2021. To counter this development, it is crucial that energy infrastructure decisions today take into account the climate neutrality target of the future to avoid carbon lock-in effects.

“Critical action will be needed in the coming months and years to ensure EU Member States can put in place ambitious emission reduction plans to meet EU climate targets. While short-term measures to boost energy supplies are needed this winter, these investments should not lock Europe into many more years of fossil fuel dependency. Saving energy and strengthening renewable energy sources are critical not only to tackle the immediate energy crisis but also to achieve climate neutrality,” said Hans Bruyninckx, EEA Executive Director.

Emissions rebound; energy consumption goes up

According to preliminary data reported by EU Member States, greenhouse gas emissions rose by 5% in 2021 from 2020, including international aviation. The emissions, however, remain well below the pre-COVID level of 2019.

Estimates suggest energy consumption increased in 2021 in both primary and final energy consumption, of 6% and 5% respectively, compared to 2020. Primary energy consumption measures energy demand, while final energy consumption refers to what end users actually use. This increase in energy use can be largely attributed to the economic recovery. In 2021 the effect of rising energy prices on the annual consumption figures was not yet visible, it can be expected that this will be more apparent in 2022.

Preliminary data suggest that Europe’s total share of renewable energy sources remained at 22% of energy consumption in 2021, pausing the otherwise strong growth in recent years. This can be explained by lesser contributions from wind power and hydro power in 2021, alongside rebounds in energy consumption.

Critical year ahead for progress on 2030 targets

In coming years, substantial emissions reductions will need to be sustained year-on-year to achieve climate neutrality in the long term. With the European Climate law, the 2030 reduction target was increased to at least 55% net greenhouse gas emission reductions by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. At this moment the European Parliament and the member states are negotiating the comprehensive Fit for 55 package, while also taking into account the proposed RePower EU plan of 2022.

To reach the 2030 target of 55% net GHG emissions, emissions would need to decline by 134 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2 eq) per year on average from the 2021 estimated levels. This is more than twice the average yearly reduction that was achieved between 1990 and 2020. All sectors need to significantly step up their efforts in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the CO2 removal through land use, land use change and forestry must be increased, reversing the current trend of a shrinking carbon sink in the EU.

At the same time, energy use should substantially decrease over the next years — the newly proposed 2030 target in the context of REPower EU requires more than a doubling of annual energy savings in the period 2022-2030. The same applies to renewable energies: since 2005, the share of renewable energy in Europe’s gross final energy consumption has grown by an average 0.8 percentage points every year. This number should increase to 2.5 percentage points per year towards 2030 in order to meet the increased 45% renewable energy target proposed in REPowerEU.

At Member State level, while substantial progress has been made already, the current policies and measures are not sufficient to meet the new ambitious climate and energy targets. By mid-2023, Member States will submit draft updates of their national energy and climate plans. This will give them the opportunity to step up their measures and develop plans for the period up to 2030 that reflect the new EU ambitions and the goal of climate neutrality.

 

EEA’s climate and energy package:

Updated climate and energy indicators:

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Based on data

Data Greenhouse gas emissions under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) The Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) No 406/2009/EC establishes annual greenhouse gas emission targets for Member States for the period 2013–2020. These targets concern emissions from most sectors not included in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), such as transport, buildings, agriculture and waste. Emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and international shipping are not included. Every year, the EEA coordinates the ESD review of Member States’ greenhouse gas inventories, so that the European Commission can determine compliance with the annual ESD targets on the basis of accurate, reliable and verified emission data. Review reports and final ESD emissions are published by the European Commission. ESD emissions for the period 2005–2012 and for the latest year ("Y-1") are estimated by EEA on the basis of national GHG inventory data and ETS emissions.
Data Approximated estimates for greenhouse gas emissions The Governance Regulation ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to annually report approximated greenhouse gas inventories by 31 July. A Union approximated greenhouse gas inventory is annually compiled on the basis of the Member States’ approximated greenhouse gas inventories or, if a Member State has not communicated its approximated inventories by that date, on the basis of own estimates.
Data Approximated estimates for the primary and final consumption of energy in 2021 (EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption) The Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU (EED) and amending directive 2018/2002/EU establish a common framework for the promotion of energy efficiency within the Union in order to ensure the achievement of the Union’s target of 20 % reduction in energy consumption by 2020 and 32 % by 2030, and to pave the way for further energy efficiency improvements beyond that date. It also calls on Member States to set their own indicative national energy efficiency targets. Since early access to the most recent information on energy consumption is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the consumption of primary and final energy in the previous year, across the EU as a whole and in each Member State. These estimates are compatible with the scope of the energy efficiency targets for 2020 and 2030, and they correspond to the indicator codes PEC2020-2030 and FEC2020-2030 from Eurostat. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 proxies on primary and final energy consumption (PEC2020-2030; FEC2020-2030).
Data Approximated estimates for the share of gross final consumption of renewable energy sources in 2021 (EEA 2021 RES share proxies) The Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC and its recast 2018/2001/EU commit the EU to achieving a 20 % share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its gross final energy consumption by 2020, and 32 % by 2030. They also set a target of 10 % share of renewable energy in transport by 2020, and 14% by 2030. Since early access to the most recent information on the growth of RES is relevant for all stakeholders, the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME) produce each year a set of early estimates concerning the RES shares achieved by the countries and the EU as a whole in the previous year. The current data set concerns the EEA 2021 RES share proxies. The cut-off date for most data sources incorporated in the calculation of the approximated RES shares is 31 July of the publication year.
Data Member States' greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections The Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to report national projections of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Every two years, each EU Member State shall report GHG projections in a ‘with existing measures’ scenario for the years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040, by gas (or group of gases) and by sector. National projections shall take into consideration any policies and measures adopted at Union level. The reported data are quality checked by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME).

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