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Trends and projections in Europe

The EEA’s annual report on Trends and Projections in Europe updates the progress assessments of the EU and European countries towards their climate mitigation and energy targets. It also sets sights forward towards the EU’s 2020 and new 2030 targets on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing renewable energy generation and improving energy efficiency. The assessments in the Trends and Projections in Europe report draw on the most recent data on EU and Member States’ progress to their climate and energy targets. These include: EU’s and Member States’ GHG inventory, Member States’ Effort Sharing datasets, Member States’s GHG projections, Proxy estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in the most recent year.
Folder Trends and projections in Europe 2019 — 31 Oct 2019
Folder Trends and projections in Europe 2018 — 24 Sep 2019
Folder Trends and projections in Europe 2017 — 07 Nov 2017
Folder Trends and projections in Europe 2016 — 08 Nov 2016
Trends and projections in Europe reports — 29 Oct 2018
The EEA’s annual report on Trends and Projections in Europe updates the progress assessments of the EU and European countries towards their climate mitigation and energy targets. It also sets sights forward towards the EU’s 2020 and new 2030 targets on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing renewable energy generation and improving energy efficiency.
Folder Climate and energy country profiles — 26 Nov 2018
Folder National action across all sectors needed to reach greenhouse gas Effort Sharing targets’ — 09 Mar 2020

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News and articles

News Sharpest decrease of the decade in EU’s greenhouse gas emissions in 2019, before impacts of COVID-19 The European Environment Agency’s (EEA) preliminary data on the European Union’s (EU) greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 show close to a 4 % decrease, compared with 2018. The only time EU emissions decreased more since 1990 was during to the economic crisis in 2009. In addition, new EEA data for 2019 show that EU stays on track to end the use of chemicals harming the ozone layer.
Article Understanding and acting on the complexity of climate change Climate change is one of the most important challenges of our time. Its impacts are felt across the globe, affecting people, nature and the economy. To mitigate climate change, we need to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases significantly. Translating this overall objective into concrete measures requires understanding a complex system linking emissions from different sources to national and regional impacts, global governance and potential co-benefits. The European Environment Agency strives to continuously improve the knowledge needed for designing effective measures on the ground.
News Renewables continue to grow in the EU, but Member States need to step up ambition on energy savings The EU Member States have lowered their energy consumption in recent years, despite a slight increase in 2015. At the same time, they use more and more renewable energy. Overall, the 28 Member States are collectively well on their way to meeting their 2020 targets on renewables, energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions. However, continuing current trends will fall short of longer term objectives, according to a new European Environment Agency (EEA) assessment published today.
News EU firmly on course to reach 2020 target, despite a slight increase in greenhouse gas emissions in 2015 Preliminary estimates show that emissions across the European Union in 2015 were 22 % lower than 1990 levels, despite a slight increase compared to 2014, according to new reports from the European Environment Agency (EEA) published today. The reports confirm that the EU is well on course to meet its greenhouse gas emission target set for 2020.
News Surplus emission permits start decreasing in the EU’s emissions trading system The surplus of CO2 emission allowances in the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) started declining in 2015. This is the first significant decrease since unused allowances started accumulating in 2008. However, the surplus remains substantial, according to the European Environment Agency’s annual report on the EU’s emissions cap and trade system published today.
News Decommissioning fossil fuel power plants between now and 2030 essential for Europe’s low carbon future Significant changes will be needed in the Member States’ energy-generating mix if the European Union is to meet its 2050 goal to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95 % compared to 1990 levels, according to a new European Environment Agency (EEA) report published today. While the European Union has made considerable progress in improving energy efficiency and using renewable energy sources, a well-planned transition out of carbon-intensive power generation is needed to meet the long-term aim of creating a low-carbon society.
Article Beyond Paris: making low-carbon economy happen Last December in Paris, the world set itself an ambitious target: limiting the global average temperature rise well below 2 degrees, while aiming to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. At the G20 summit earlier this month, China and the United States announced their formal commitment to join the Paris agreement. This is a major step forward for the international effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming. Nevertheless, the current reduction commitments made so far by signatory countries are not sufficient to meet this ambitious target.
News EU greenhouse gas emissions at lowest level since 1990 European Union (EU) greenhouse gas emissions continued to decrease in 2014, with a 4.1% reduction in emissions to 24.4% below 1990 levels, according to the EU’s annual inventory published today by the European Environment Agency (EEA).
Article Renewable energy: key to Europe’s low-carbon future The future looks bright for renewable energy sources which are playing an increasingly important role as Europe tries to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. We talked about the opportunities and challenges ahead for clean energy with Mihai Tomescu, energy expert at the European Environment Agency.
News Reported CO2 emissions from new cars continue to fall Emissions from official testing reported by national authorities show that new cars sold in the European Union (EU) are increasingly more fuel-efficient. Last year, new passenger cars emitted on average 119.6 grammes (g) of carbon dioxide (CO2) per kilometre, 8% below the official EU target set for 2015, according to provisional data published today by the European Environment Agency (EEA).
News Renewables increasingly curbing reliance on fossil fuels The use of fossil fuels across the European Union continues to decline due in part to increased consumption of renewable energy sources like wind, solar and biomass, according to a report published today by the European Environment Agency (EEA). The report, which assesses progress on the use of renewable energy, found that clean energy technologies are an important driving force in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and in creating employment in Europe.
Article Climate agreement: towards a low-carbon, climate resilient world The climate deal agreed in Paris by 195 countries is the first-ever universal and legally binding agreement of its kind. The Paris agreement is the result of many years of preparation, dialogue and growing awareness of the need to tackle current and potential impacts of climate change. It constitutes a major and promising step towards building a low-carbon and climate-resilient world. It also sends a clear signal to policy makers and businesses to move away from fossil fuels and invest in clean energy and adaptation actions.
News Phase-down of fluorinated gases essential to reduce effect on climate Fluorinated gases (F-gases) have been introduced as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances in many sectors, but they contribute significantly to climate change. The European Environment Agency (EEA) has today published a new report on their production, import and export, which contributes to tracking progress towards their phase-down.
News CO2 emissions from new vehicles in Europe continued to decrease in 2014 Vehicles sold in the European Union in 2014 were, on average, 2.5% more efficient than those sold the previous year, according to a new report from the European Environment Agency (EEA). The report, which updates the preliminary data published earlier this year, tracks progress towards CO2 emission targets for new passenger cars and vans.
Press Release Climate change: EU shows leadership ahead of Paris with 23% emissions cut The European Union is on track towards meeting and overachieving its 2020 target for reducing greenhouse emissions by 20%, according to a report published today by the European Environment Agency (EEA). The "Trends and projections in Europe 2015" report reveals that greenhouse gas emissions in Europe decreased by 23% between 1990 and 2014 and reached the lowest levels on record. Latest projections by Member States show that the EU is heading for a 24% reduction by 2020 with current measures in place, and a 25% reduction with additional measures already being planned in Member States. The EU is already working towards its 2030 goal of an emissions reduction target of at least 40% — the EU's contribution towards the new global climate change agreement in Paris in December.

Related infographics

Infographic Fuel types and GHG emissions Transport demand is closely linked to economic activity: in periods of growth, economic output goes up, more goods are transported and more people travel. The impacts of transport on human health, the environment and climate change are closely linked to the choice of fuel. Clean alternative fuels, including electricity, are already available and can constitute viable options to petrol and diesel. Trip length plays a role in determining the suitability of the fuel type.
Infographic EU targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Several EU targets have been set to reduce the environmental impacts of transport in Europe, including its greenhouse gas. The transport sector’s targets are part of the EU’s overall goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 – 95 % by 2050.
Infographic Mitigating climate change The European Union's effort to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions are working. In fact, the EU is expected to meet its unilateral 20 % reduction target (compared to 1990) ahead of the agreed 2020 deadline. Moreover, the EU intends to reduce domestic emissions by at least 40 % by 2030 and further decarbonise its economy by 2050. The EU currently emits around 10 % of global greenhouse-gas emissions.
Infographic Are we ready for climate change? Climate change is causing a variety of impacts to our health, ecosystems and economy. These impacts are likely to become more serious in the coming decades. If not addressed, these impacts could prove very costly, in terms of ill health, adverse effects on ecosystems, and damaged property and infrastructure.

Related publications

Publication Approximated EU GHG inventory: proxy GHG estimates for 2015 This report provides estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the European Union (EU) and its Member States for 2015, covering the full GHG inventory (all sectors, except land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and all gases). These estimates are also referred to as approximated ('proxy') estimates or inventories in this report as they cover the year for which no official GHG inventories have been prepared yet. The proxy inventories in this report are based on GHG emission estimates reported by Member States to the European Commission under existing EU legislation (1 ) and on calculations made by the European Environment Agency's (EEA) European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation (ETC/ACM) using activity and/or emission data at country level. The official submission of 2015 inventories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place in 2017. The proxy estimates greatly improve the timeliness of information on GHG emissions and are used for analysis of emission trends and progress towards EU climate targets.
Publication Trends and projections in the EU ETS in 2016 — The EU Emissions Trading System in numbers The report provides an analysis of past, present and future emissions trends under the EU ETS, based on the latest data and information available from the European Commission and Member States. It also analyses the balance between supply and demand of allowances in the market. The report's annexes provide extensive material describing the functioning, scope and cap of the EU ETS.
Publication Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2014 and inventory report 2016 This report is the annual submission of the greenhouse gas inventory of the European Union to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It presents the greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2014 for the EU-28 individual Member States by IPCC sector.
Publication Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2013 and inventory report 2015 This report is the annual submission of the greenhouse gas inventory of the European Union to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It presents the greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2013 for the EU-28 individual Member States by IPCC sector.
Publication Trends and projections in Europe 2015 — Tracking progress towards Europe's climate and energy targets The 2015 edition of the annual European Environment Agency (EEA) 'Trends and projections' report provides an updated assessment of the progress of the European Union (EU) and European countries towards their climate mitigation and energy targets. The assessment of Member States’ progress towards their climate and energy targets is based on: national data on GHG emissions, renewable energy and energy consumption for 2013; and projections reported by Member States concerning expected trends in greenhouse gas emissions until 2035. The report also presents preliminary ('approximated' or 'proxy') data for the year 2014. The report supports and complements the annual assessment, by the European Commission, of the progress of the EU and its Member States towards meeting the Kyoto and EU 2020 objectives, as required by EU regulation (the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation).
Publication Approximated EU GHG inventory: proxy GHG estimates for 2014 This report provides proxy estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the European Union (EU) and its Member States for the year 2014, covering the full GHG inventory (all sectors, except Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and all gases). The proxy estimates in this report are based on data reported by Member States to the European Commission under existing EU legislation and on calculations made by the European Environment Agency (EEA). The proxy estimates are not based on complete activity data and should be considered as preliminary until the official inventory submissions for years 1990-2014 are reported to UNFCCC in 2016. The proxy estimates greatly improve the timeliness of information on GHG emissions and are used for analysis of emission trends and progress to EU climate targets.
Publication Trends and projections in the EU ETS in 2015 This report provides an analysis of past, present and future emissions trends under the EU ETS, based on the latest data and information available from the European Commission and Member States. It also analyses the balance between supply and demand of allowances in the market. The report's annexes provide extensive material describing the functioning, scope and cap of the EU ETS, as well as a specific analysis of emissions of non-CO2 gases covered by the EU ETS.
Publication Projections in hindsight An assessment of past emission projections reported by Member States under EU air pollution and GHG legislation
Publication Approximated EU GHG inventory: proxy GHG estimates for 2013 This report provides proxy estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the European Union (EU) and its Member States for the year 2013, covering the full GHG inventory (all sectors, except Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and all gases). The proxy estimates in this report are based on data reported by Member States to the European Commission under existing EU legislation and on calculations made by the European Environment Agency (EEA). The proxy estimates are not based on complete activity data and should be considered as preliminary until the official inventory submissions are reported to UNFCCC in 2015. The proxy estimates greatly improve the timeliness of information on GHG emissions and are used for analysis of emission trends and progress to EU climate targets.
Publication Progress towards 2008 – 2012 Kyoto targets in Europe This report provides an assessment of the latest progress, as of June 2014, made by EU and European countries in achieving their GHG targets during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, from 2008 until 2012.
Publication Trends and projections in Europe 2014 Tracking progress towards Europe's climate and energy targets for 2020
Publication Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2012 and inventory report 2014 This report is the annual submission of the greenhouse gas inventory of the European Union to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. It presents greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2012 for EU-28, EU-15, individual Member States and economic sector.
Publication Trends and projections in Europe 2013 – Tracking progress towards Europe's climate and energy targets until 2020 This report provide an assessment of the progress of the EU and European countries towards achieving their climate mitigation and energy policy objectives. These targets include international commitments pursuant the KP and the EU 2020 commitment to reduce by 20 % greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to 1990, to create 20 % of energy consumption from renewables and to increase energy efficiency by 20 %. The assessment is based on GHG data for the period 2008–2012, including recent estimates of proxy 2012 GHG emissions, GHG projections until 2020 submitted by Member States in 2013, as well as energy statistics until 2011.
Publication Approximated EU GHG inventory: early estimates for 2012 The objective of this report is to provide approximated estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU-15 and EU-28 for the year 2012. The official submission of 2012 data to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will occur in 2014.
Publication Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990-…2011 and inventory report 2013 This report is the annual submission of the greenhouse gas inventory of the European Union to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. It presents greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2011 for EU-27, EU-15, individual Member States and economic sector.
Publication Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2012 - Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets This report presents an overview of the progress achieved so far by the EU, its Member States and other EEA member countries towards their respective targets under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU burden-sharing agreement, as well as 2020 targets set at EU level. The assessment is based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission data in Europe for the period 2008-2011, including recent EEA estimates of proxy 2011 GHG emissions.
Publication Approximated EU GHG inventory: early estimates for 2011 The objective of this report is to provide an early estimate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU-15 and EU-27 for the year 2011. The official submission of 2011 data to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will occur in 2013.
Publication Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2010 and inventory report 2012 This report is the annual submission of the greenhouse gas inventory of the European Union to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. It presents greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2010 for EU-27, EU-15, individual Member States and economic sector.
Publication Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2011 - Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets This report presents an overview of the progress achieved so far by the EU, its Member States and other EEA member countries towards their respective targets under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU burden-sharing agreement, as well as 2020 targets set at EU level. The assessment is based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission data in Europe for the period 2008–2010, including recent EEA estimates of proxy 2010 GHG emissions.
Publication Approximated EU GHG inventory: early estimates for 2010 This report provides an early estimate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU‑15 and EU‑27 for the year 2010. The official submission of 2010 data to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will occur in 2012.
Publication Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe: a retrospective trend analysis for the period 1990 - 2008 This report presents a retrospective overview of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends in Europe from 1990 to 2008, with a particular focus on the underpinning drivers and the influence of EU policies. The analysis is based on the combination of decomposition analyses to identify the respective influence of each identified driver and an overview of the main EU policies and their likely effects on these drivers. The period covered by the analysis stops in 2008. As a result, the analysis does not address the effects of the recent economic crisis on GHG emissions. This reinforces the conclusion on long-term emission drivers. The report covers the EU-27 and presents results for the other European Environment Agency (EEA) member countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey) and Croatia (EU candidate country, together with Turkey) as far as data are available.
Publication Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2009 and inventory report 2011 This report is the annual submission of the greenhouse gas inventory of the European Union to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. It presents greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2009 for EU-27, EU-15, individual Member States and economic sector.
Publication Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets in Europe This report presents an overview of the progress achieved so far by the EU, its Member States and other EEA member countries towards their respective targets under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU burden-sharing agreement. The assessment is based on greenhouse gas emission data in Europe for 2008, the first year of the Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period which runs from 2008 to 2012. The recent availability of 2009 emissions estimates for the EU and a limited number of countries broadens, in these cases, the basis of the assessment to two years of the five-year commitment period.
Publication Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 – 2008 and inventory report 2010 This report is the annual submission of the greenhouse gas inventory of the European Union to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. It presents greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2008 for EU-27, EU-15, individual Member States and economic sector.
Publication Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2009 Tracking progress towards Kyoto targets
Publication Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2007 and inventory report 2009 The present inventory also constitutes the EU‑15 voluntary submission under the Kyoto Protocol.
Publication Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990 - 2006 and inventory report 2008
Publication Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2005 and inventory report 2007
Publication The European Community's initial report under the Kyoto Protocol
Publication Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2004 and inventory report 2006
Publication Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2003 and inventory report 2005
Publication Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2002 and inventory report 2004
Publication Exploring the ancillary benefits of the Kyoto Protocol for air pollution in Europe
Publication Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990-2001 and inventory report 2003
Publication Analysis and comparison of national and EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions
Publication Annual European Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-2000 and Inventory Report 2002
Publication Annual European Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-1999 - Submission to the Secretariat of the UNFCCC
Publication Annual European Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-1998 - Submission to the secretariat of the UNFCCC
Publication Annual European Community Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-1996 - Submission to the Secretariat of the UNFCCC

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For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate/trends-and-projections-in-europe or scan the QR code.

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