Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2012 - Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets

Publication Created 11 Oct 2012 Published 24 Oct 2012
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EEA Report No 6/2012
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This report presents an overview of the progress achieved so far by the EU, its Member States and other EEA member countries towards their respective targets under the Kyoto Protocol and the EU burden-sharing agreement, as well as 2020 targets set at EU level. The assessment is based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission data in Europe for the period 2008-2011, including recent EEA estimates of proxy 2011 GHG emissions.

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GHG emission targets in Europe under the KP (2008–2012) relative to base‑year emissions (absolute and relative) GHG emission targets in Europe under the KP (2008–2012) relative to base‑year emissions (absolute and relative) The final emission levels allocated to the EU and each Member State were established after completion of the reviews of the initial reports pursuant to Article 8 of the KP in 2008. To account for Denmark's exceptionally low base-year emissions compared to other years, Denmark received 5 million AAUs from the Union registry for the first commitment period under the KP
Absolute and relative gaps between average 2008–2011 non‑ETS emissions and Kyoto target for non‑ETS sectors Absolute and relative gaps between average 2008–2011 non‑ETS emissions and Kyoto target for non‑ETS sectors * 'EU‑15 (no over achievement)' corresponds to the situation of the EU‑15 where all surplus Kyoto units from target over achievement in the EU‑15 are not taken into account, to reflect the possibility that Member States with a surplus could use any remaining allowances for their own purposes and not necessarily make them available to compensate for Member States with a shortfall. Subsequent to the effect of allocation of allowances to the EU ETS, the target and annual emissions are those of the sectors not covered by the EU ETS. The target for non-ETS sectors corresponds to the difference between the initial permissible emissions and the amount of allowances allocated under the EU ETS. A positive value indicates a country for which average 2008–2011 non‑ETS emissions were lower than the annual target. The assessment is based on average 2008–2011 emissions and the planned use of flexible mechanisms, as well as the expected effect of LULUCF activities. EU‑15 values are the sum of the gaps/surplus for the 15 EU Member States party to Burden-Sharing Agreement. For Croatia, Iceland and Switzerland, total emissions are used as they have currently no installations under the EU ETS.
National 2020 GHG emission limits under the ESD relative to 2005 emissions levels National 2020 GHG emission limits under the ESD relative to 2005 emissions levels -
Projected gaps between 2020 GHG emissions and national targets in sectors not covered by the EU ETS Projected gaps between 2020 GHG emissions and national targets in sectors not covered by the EU ETS Progress calculated based on domestic emissions only, without accounting for possible use of flexibility options. The 2020 targets and 2005 non‑ETS emissions are all consistent with 2013–2020 ETS scope, i.e. they take into account the extension of the ETS scope in 2013 and the unilateral inclusion of installation in 2008–2012. Relative gaps are calculated as a ratio between the difference (projected non‑ETS 2020 emissions – estimates of 2020 targets under the ESD) and EEA estimates of 2005 non‑ETS emissions consistent with 2013–2020 ETS scope
Development of sectoral emissions 2008–2011 compared to 2008 levels Development of sectoral emissions 2008–2011 compared to 2008 levels The ETS sector category '99. Other activities opted-in' is not included, as it is heterogeneous and includes installations with unclear sector definition. Figures for the sector are reported in Table 4.4 in the report
EUA future prices 2008–2012 EUA future prices 2008–2012 The EUA prices reflect daily over-the-counter (OTC) closing prices for EUAs to be delivered at the end of 2012
Total, ETS and non‑ETS emission trends in the EU‑15 compared to their respective targets, 2008–2011 Total, ETS and non‑ETS emission trends in the EU‑15 compared to their respective targets, 2008–2011 -
Sectoral trends and projections of EU GHG emissions Sectoral trends and projections of EU GHG emissions Solid lines represent historic emissions up to 2011 and WEM projections from 2011 onwards. Dashed lines represent WAM projections. The gaps observed between the end of historic trends and the start of projected trends are due to the fact that absolute projection data were not calibrated on the latest 2011 GHG proxy inventory data.
Gap between average non‑ETS 2008–2011 emissions and Kyoto targets without the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms Gap between average non‑ETS 2008–2011 emissions and Kyoto targets without the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms A positive value indicates that average 2008-to-2011 emissions in the non‑ETS sectors were lower than the average annual target, taking into account the effect of allowances attributed to the EU ETS and without use of carbon sinks and Kyoto mechanisms.
Intended (2008–2012) and actual (2008–2011) average annual use of the Kyoto mechanisms Intended (2008–2012) and actual (2008–2011) average annual use of the Kyoto mechanisms Positive values indicate net acquisition of Kyoto units, while negative values indicate net sales. The actual use of Kyoto mechanisms is based on the delivery of units according to the SEF table. Countries might have acquired more units than are recorded in the SEF tables, e.g. due to delivery dates later in the commitment period. For the United Kingdom, SEF tables include the overseas territories and the crown dependencies of the United Kingdom. For the purposes of the implementation of Article 4 of the KP and as they are not part of the EC, the overseas territories and the crown dependencies of the United Kingdom were excluded from the initial assigned amount of the United Kingdom under the EC. In consequence, the trade of AAUs is slightly overestimated for the United Kingdom, as SEF tables for the geographical coverage of the United Kingdom under the EC only are not available. For Denmark, Greenland is included in the SEF tables. For the purposes of the implementation of Article 4 of the KP and as Greenland is not part of the EC, Greenland was excluded from the initial assigned amount of Denmark under the EC. In consequence, the trade of AAUs is slightly overestimated for Denmark, as SEF tables for the geographical coverage of Denmark under the EC only are not available. For Germany and France, corrections for allocated allowances have been included. Germany distributed an additional 8.1 Mt in 2008 to finance its auctioning mechanism, and in 2009 and 2010, Germany received 4 Mt from operators due to back requirements that are not included in the CITL. Allocations by France to new entrants in 2008 and 2009 were not recorded as allocation in the CITL; these 9.4 Mt are included in the calculations of the report with exception of the Chapter 4 on the EU ETS.
Credits from CDM and JI surrendered in 2008–2011 Credits from CDM and JI surrendered in 2008–2011 -
Absolute and relative gaps between average 2008–2011 non‑ETS emissions and Kyoto target for non‑ETS sectors (AAU initial - ETS issued) (with and without the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms) Absolute and relative gaps between average 2008–2011 non‑ETS emissions and Kyoto target for non‑ETS sectors (AAU initial - ETS issued) (with and without the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms) 'EU‑15 (no overachievement)' corresponds to the situation of the EU‑15 where all surplus AAUs from target overachievement in the EU‑15 are not taken into account, to reflect the possibility that Member States with a surplus could use any remaining allowances for their own purposes and not necessarily make them available to compensate for Member States with a shortfall. Subsequent to the effect of allocation of allowances to the EU ETS, the target and annual emissions are those of the sectors not covered by the EU ETS. For each country, the top bar represents the gap between domestic emissions and the Kyoto target, while the bar below includes the planned effect of Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks. A positive value indicates a country for which average 2008–2011 non‑ETS emissions were lower than the annual target. The assessment is based on average 2008–2011 emissions and the planned use of flexible mechanisms, as well as the expected effect of LULUCF activities. EU‑15 values are the sum of the gaps/surplus for the 15 EU Member States party to Burden-Sharing Agreement. For Croatia, Iceland and Switzerland, total emissions are used as they have currently no installations under the EU ETS.
Comparison of average verified emissions and free allocation for all 30 countries participating in the EU ETS, 2008–2011 Comparison of average verified emissions and free allocation for all 30 countries participating in the EU ETS, 2008–2011 -
Gaps between average total 2008–2011 emissions and Kyoto targets without the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms Gaps between average total 2008–2011 emissions and Kyoto targets without the use of carbon sinks and flexible mechanisms Each bar represents the percentage change of domestic emissions compared to base‑year emissions; the yellow line represents the Kyoto or burden-sharing target in relation to base‑year emissions. The numbers represent the gap between emissions and targets, expressed in percentage of base‑year emissions. A positive value (and black arrow pointing up) indicates that total emissions were lower than the Kyoto or burden-sharing target. A negative value (and orange arrow pointing down) indicates that total emissions were higher than the Kyoto or burden-sharing target. For Liechtenstein, Croatia and Iceland, the comparison is based on average total 2008–2010 emissions, due to the unavailability of approximated 2011 GHG emission estimates.
Breakdown of current progress achieved by European countries towards their Kyoto targets by the end of 2011 Breakdown of current progress achieved by European countries towards their Kyoto targets by the end of 2011 The assessment is based on emissions and the targets of the sectors not covered under the EU ETS, the planned use of flexible mechanisms as well as the expected effect of LULUCF activities. A positive sign signifies a favourable contribution towards target achievement. EU‑15* includes all overachievements but those of the United Kingdom, which will be cancelled following the Carbon Accounting Regulations (Statutory instruments, 2009. No 1257). 'EU‑15 (no overachievement)' corresponds to the situation of the EU‑15 where all surplus AAUs from target overachievement in the EU‑15 are not taken into account, to reflect the possibility that Member States with a surplus could use any remaining allowances for their own purposes, and not necessarily make them available to compensate for Member States with a shortfall. For Switzerland: carbon sequestration from LULUCF is expected to be in the range of – 0.4 Mt CO2-equivalent to – 1.8 Mt CO2‑equivalent.
Comparison of available emission units and verified emissions in all 30 EU ETS countries, 2005–2011 Comparison of available emission units and verified emissions in all 30 EU ETS countries, 2005–2011 The 'change in scope/coverage' concerns the correction from 2005 through 2007, to 2008 through 2012. The large corrections for 2005 and 2006 are related to Bulgaria and Romania, which only entered the scheme in 2007
Perspective of the EU ETS cap up to 2050 Perspective of the EU ETS cap up to 2050 -
Trends and projections of EU total GHG emissions, 1990–2030 Trends and projections of EU total GHG emissions, 1990–2030 PRIMES/GAINS projections recalibrated by EEA, based on 2010 GHG emissions. Member State projections do not include international aviation, while the PRIMES/GAINS scenarios do. 2025 and 2030 projections are based on information provided by 12 Member States. For other Member States, 2030 projections were gap filled using the 2020–2025 and 2020–2030 relative trends available from the Commission's scenarios based on the PRIMES and GAINS models. The gaps observed between the end of historic trends and the start of projected trends are due to the fact that the absolute projection data was not calibrated on the latest 2011 GHG proxy inventory data.
Historic GHG trends and emission projections in EEA member countries that are not EU Member States, and Croatia, 1990–2020 Historic GHG trends and emission projections in EEA member countries that are not EU Member States, and Croatia, 1990–2020 2012 information on GHG projections available from Switzerland, 2011 information on GHG projections available from Norway, 2010 information available from Croatia and Liechtenstein, 2007 information available from Turkey and 2006 information available for Iceland.
Actual progress of the EU‑15 towards its burden-sharing target in absolute and relative terms Actual progress of the EU‑15 towards its burden-sharing target in absolute and relative terms The X-axis (0 % line) corresponds to the achievement of the EU-15 reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol (– 8 % compared to base-year emissions). Positive values correspond to contributions to the achievement of the EU-15 Kyoto target, while negative values represent shortfalls. The difference between target and GHG emissions concerns the sectors not covered by the EU ETS, which represent the right emissions and target to consider for the assessment of actual progress towards Kyoto targets.

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Related indicators

Progress to greenhouse gas emission targets Progress to greenhouse gas emission targets At the end of 2011, almost all European countries were on track towards their Kyoto targets for 2008–2012. The EU‑15 is on track towards this 8 % reduction target, compared to base-year levels under the Kyoto Protocol. Projections from EU Member States indicate that their emissions outside the EU ETS will be lower than their national targets set under the Climate and Energy Package. Total EU emissions are projected to fall slightly until 2020. With the current set of national domestic measures in place, Member States are expected to reach a level in 2020 which is 19 % below 1990 levels and close to the 20 % reduction target.
Greenhouse gas emission trends Greenhouse gas emission trends In 2010, EU-27 greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.4 % compared to 2009. This was due to the return to economic growth in many countries and a colder winter leading to an increased demand for heating. However, the increase in emissions was contained by a move from coal to natural gas and the sustained strong growth in renewable energy generation. This increase noted in 2010 follows a 7 % drop in 2009 (compared to 2008), largely due to the economic recession and, again, the increased production of renewable energy.  With respect to 1990 levels, EU‑27 emissions were decreased by 15.4 % (Figure 1).  At a sectoral level, emissions decreased in all main sectors except the transport one, where they increased considerably. In the EU-15, 2010 GHG emissions increased by 2.1 % compared to 2009 – an increase of 78.5 Mt CO 2 eq in absolute values. This implies that EU‑15 greenhouse gas emissions were approximately 10.6 % below the 1990 level in 2010 or 11 % below the base-year level. CO 2  emissions from public electricity and heat production also decreased by 6.1% with respect to 1990. The European Union remains well on track to achieve its Kyoto Protocol target (an 8% reduction of its greenhouse gas emissions compared to base-year level, to be achieved during the period from 2008 to 2012). A detailed assessment of progress towards Kyoto targets and 2020 targets in Europe is provided in EEA's 2012 report on Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections .

See also

Figure ES.2 Trends and projections 2016.png Figure ES.2 Trends and projections 2016.png
Country profiles Country profiles
Sweden GHG and energy country profile Sweden GHG and energy country profile
Slovenia GHG and energy country profile Slovenia GHG and energy country profile
Poland GHG and energy country profile Poland GHG and energy country profile
Portugal GHG and energy country profile Portugal GHG and energy country profile
Spain GHG and energy country profile Spain GHG and energy country profile
Romania GHG and energy country profile Romania GHG and energy country profile
Slovakia GHG and energy country profile Slovakia GHG and energy country profile
UK GHG and energy country profile UK GHG and energy country profile
Bulgaria GHG and energy country profile Bulgaria GHG and energy country profile
Cyprus GHG and energy country profile Cyprus GHG and energy country profile
Austria GHG and energy country profile Austria GHG and energy country profile
Malta GHG and energy country profile Malta GHG and energy country profile
Estonia GHG and energy country profile Estonia GHG and energy country profile
Italy GHG and energy country profile Italy GHG and energy country profile
Luxembourg GHG and energy country profile Luxembourg GHG and energy country profile
Greece GHG and energy country profile Greece GHG and energy country profile
Latvia GHG and energy country profile Latvia GHG and energy country profile
Denmark GHG and energy country profile Denmark GHG and energy country profile
Lithuania GHG and energy country profile Lithuania GHG and energy country profile
Hungary GHG and energy country profile Hungary GHG and energy country profile
Croatia GHG and energy country profile Croatia GHG and energy country profile
Germany GHG and energy country profile Germany GHG and energy country profile
France GHG and energy country profile France GHG and energy country profile
Finland GHG and energy country profile Finland GHG and energy country profile
Ireland GHG and energy country profile Ireland GHG and energy country profile
Netherlands GHG and energy country profile Netherlands GHG and energy country profile
Belgium GHG and energy country profile Belgium GHG and energy country profile
Czech Republic GHG and energy country profile Czech Republic GHG and energy country profile
Country profiles - greenhouse gases and energy Country profiles - greenhouse gases and energy This section presents country profiles containing key data on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, renewable energy and energy efficiency for each EU Member State. These country profiles support and complement the assessment of progress towards climate and energy targets in Europe.
Trends and projections in Europe 2016 - Tracking progress towards Europe's climate and energy targets Trends and projections in Europe 2016 - Tracking progress towards Europe's climate and energy targets The 2016 edition of the annual EEA report, Trends and projections in Europe, provides an updated assessment of the progress of the EU and European countries towards their climate mitigation and energy targets.
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