Energy

Final energy consumption of the transport sector in the EU-27, including international bunkers, reached 14.9 million terajoule (TJ) (equivalent to 355.1Mtoe) in 2023. This represents a 31.2% increase compared to 1990 and corresponds to a CAGR of 0.8% (still below the 1.1% CAGR for 1990-2019) (see Figure 5). Transport holds a 37.3% share of all final energy consumption in the EU-27 (a rise of one percentage point from 2022). The sector’s final energy consumption is projected to fall to 13 million TJ by 2030, a reduction of 12.7% compared to 2023.

Only a small proportion of the sector’s final energy consumption is derived from renewable sources. According to the accounting rules of the Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II, Directive 2018/2001/EU), the share of renewable energy used in transport in the EU (RES-T) rose to 10.8% in 2023, surpassing the previous peak of 10.2% in 2020. Through the revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III, Directive (EU) 2023/2413), Member States must ensure that, compared to a baseline, either the share of renewable energy in transport is at least 29% or greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity is reduced by at least 14.5% by 2030. Renewable fuels used for the aviation and maritime sectors also count towards RED III targets, with higher multipliers than for fuels used in road and rail. Renewable fuels and renewable electricity count towards the emission intensity reduction target based on their GHG emission reductions.

Road transport

Final energy consumption of the road sector has increased steadily since 1990, up to 11.3 million TJ in 2007 (see Figure 6). In the following years (and in the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crisis) final energy consumption decreased progressively, reaching a minimum of 10.4 million TJ in 2013. This represents a fall of 8.1% compared to 2007. By 2019 it had returned to 2007 levels.

In 2020, the sector saw another significant fall in energy consumption due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This was followed by a recovery the following year. In 2023, final energy consumption reached 11 million TJ, only 3% lower than 2019 levels. In the same year, road transport accounted for 73.8% of final energy consumed by all transport sectors and 27.6% of all EU-27 final energy consumption (see Figure 5).  

Figure 6 shows that only 7.2% of this energy comes from renewable sources or electricity. Although covered by the EU ETS cap, electricity is not necessarily generated from renewable sources and not all biofuels are carbon neutral. More specifically, in 2023, 63.7% of the final energy consumption of road transport was derived from diesel fuel (1.7 percentage points less than 2022). This represents an increase of 19.9 percentage points in the period 1990-2023. In the same timeframe, the share of gasoline in the energy mix used in road transport decreased by 28.5 percentage points, down to 26% in 2023 (0.9 percentage points more than 2022). These long-term trends are partially explained by different fiscal regimes for the two fuels that favour diesel over petrol. Historically lower tax rates for diesel reflect past objectives of protecting commercial transport competitiveness and promoting fuel efficiency, but nonetheless have contributed to rising diesel consumption and its associated environmental impacts.  

The use of other fossil fuels such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas expanded over 1990 to 2023, though their combined share remained small in 2023. LPG use increased by 102%, reaching a share of 2.1% with 229,000 TJ consumed in 2023. Natural gas consumption held an 0.8% share (87,200 TJ) in 2023. Despite limited use, consumption was 9.6 times higher in 2023 than in 1990.  

Biofuel consumption has also increased significantly, providing approximately 5.6 times more energy in 2023 (735,000 TJ) than in 2005. This represents a share of 6.7% in 2023. Uptake was stimulated by targets in the Fuel Quality Directive, i.e. a 6% reduction in GHG emission intensities of fuels sold in the EU-27 by 2020, compared to 2010 levels. This target does not include the effects of indirect land use change (for example, any increase in GHG emissions associated with the conversion of land such as forests and wetlands to the production of food and feed crops). The directive has now been amended by the revised Renewable Energy Directive.  

Electricity consumption in road transport is still very low, with a 2023 share of 0.5%. In absolute terms, the demand for electricity in 2023 was 56,400 TJ, 9.4 times higher than in 2018. Despite challenges associated with large-scale deployment in transport, electrification is expected to become more significant in response to the need to decarbonise and to policies put in place for the sector. These include the separate EU emissions trading system (ETS2) for road transport, the tightening of CO₂ emission performance standards for new light and heavy-duty vehicles, the revision of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and the new Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR).

The EC’s FF55-MIX scenario estimates a fall of 8.7% in final energy consumption for road transport in 2025 and of 19.5% in 2030, compared to 2023 (see Figure 5). However, the trends discussed above suggest that the 2025 estimation is unlikely to be met. Considering road transport volumes are projected to rise, this implies a significant increase in energy efficiency of the sector, expected to come through large-scale electrification. Nevertheless, road transport is expected to remain the largest consumer of energy in the sector, with a share of 68% in 2030. This would correspond to 24.4% of final energy consumption in the EU-27. On the other hand, the CETO 2024 scenario forecasts road transport’s total energy consumption will fall by 16% in 2030, compared to 2023. Road’s share of energy use (excluding waterborne passenger activity) is expected to reach 78% in 2030.

Rail transport

Final energy consumption in the rail sector decreased by 30.5% from 1990 to 2023 (and by 28.9% between 1990 and 2019), reaching approximately 217,000 TJ in 2023. This is equivalent to a CAGR of -1.1%. The decline between 1990 and 2019 is notable as passenger activity increased and freight activity varied only slightly (see Figure 1 and Figure 3). Rail’s final energy consumption corresponded to approximately 1.5% of final energy demand for all transport sectors combined and 0.5% of overall final energy consumption in the EU-27 in 2023.  

The fall between 1990 and 2023 mainly stems from a reduction in the use of fossil fuels such as diesel (with a decrease of 70.2%). Meanwhile, electricity use has remained fairly constant with an average of 174,000 TJ consumed annually (see Figure 7). Electricity accounted for 79.6% of final energy consumption for the sector in 2023. Biofuel consumption was limited at around 1.2%.  

As discussed, the EU’s sustainable and smart mobility strategy calls for a significant expansion of rail activity. This is expected to impact on the sector’s overall energy requirements. At present, no exhaustive data exist for renewable energy use in the railway sector at the EU level, though the EC has established a platform to gather such information. Estimates from 22 rail infrastructure managers in Europe — representing almost the entire rail network and including the main infrastructure managers from EU Member States, Switzerland and Norway — suggest that around 51% of traction energy (in kilowatt-hour (kWh)) used in 2023 came from renewable sources. Though incomplete, these data provide a general overview of the sector’s energy use.

The EC’s FF55-MIX scenario estimates that final energy consumption for rail will increase by 10.3% and 25.5% in 2025 and 2030, respectively, compared to 2023. Based on these estimates, rail’s final energy consumption will grow to approximately 2.1% of the EU-27 transport system’s final energy demand and to 0.75% of the overall EU-27 final energy consumption by 2030. This is in line with anticipated growth of rail activity.

The CETO 2024 scenario estimates total energy consumption for the rail sector will increase by 19% in 2030, compared to 2023, with a projected share of the transport sector of 2%.

Waterborne transport

Final energy consumption for domestic and international navigation (waterborne transport) in the EU-27 peaked at 2.43 million TJ in 2007 (see Figure 8). A decrease of around 25% followed between 2007 and 2014. This was partly due to the financial crisis in 2007-2008, which led to a decrease in the average operating speed of waterborne vessels. Energy consumption bounced back to 1.99 million TJ in 2018, before falling again in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Overall, final energy consumption in this sector increased by 12.8% from 1990 to 2023, reaching approximately 1.81 million TJ. This corresponds to a share of 11.1% of final energy demand for transport and 4.5% of overall final energy consumption in the EU-27 in 2023 (see Figure 5). International navigation bunkers accounted for 90.9% of the overall energy consumed in waterborne transport in the same year.  

Waterborne transport currently makes very little use of renewable energy. Only 0.8% of all energy used in 2023 came from renewable sources, all of which was derived from biofuels. Indeed, almost all of the sector’s final energy consumption came from marine fuel oil (70.5%) or diesel (26.3%). The use of methane has grown, representing 1% of final energy consumption in 2023, nine times more than in 2017. Non-combusted methane emissions in the sector increased as a result of this (see Figure 11 in the climate section) and a shift in the mix of machinery used across the fleet (i.e. from conventional steam turbines used in LNG carriers to Otto cycle engines).  

The FuelEU Maritime Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2023/1805) requires the average GHG emission intensity of the energy used on board a ship to decrease over time: by at least 2% by 2025 and up to at least 80% by 2050, compared to the average carbon intensity in 2020 (91.16 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule  (gCO₂e/MJ)). This regulation incentivises the use of renewable fuels of non-biological origin (synthetic fuels or e-fuels) with high decarbonisation potential. In addition, the EU ETS now covers CO₂ emissions (and CH₄ and N₂O emissions from 2026) from all large ships (of 5,000 gross tonnage and above) calling at EU ports. This aims to reduce the price difference between alternative and traditional maritime fuels and bring ship emissions under the EU ETS cap. Under the revised EU ETS Directive, Member States are required to use revenues from the auctioning of maritime allowances for climate action, advancing towards transformation of the energy system and addressing social challenges linked to carbon pricing.

According to the FF55-MIX scenario, final energy consumption for waterborne transport is forecast to increase by 11.1% in 2025 compared to 2023 and to remain largely stable thereafter until 2030 (see Figure 5). Estimates suggest international navigation will rise by 10.6%, and domestic navigation by 15.3%, from 2023 to 2030. Under this scenario, waterborne transport will account for approximately 15.5% of the transport sector’s final energy consumption and 5.5% of the overall final energy demand in the EU-27 (including international bunkers) in 2030.  

On the other hand, the CETO 2024 scenario projects total energy consumption in waterborne transport will decrease by 32% by 2030 relative to 2023, with a share of just 1% of the transport sector’s total energy use in 2030. This scenario only considers domestic and inland freight navigation and not waterborne passenger activity.

Aviation

Final energy consumption for aviation (including international bunkers) more than doubled between 1990 and 2019 (see Figure 9). Energy consumption peaked at 2.02 million TJ in 2019, with international aviation bunkers accounting for approximately 86.5% of the total. Aviation accounted for 13% of the transport system’s final energy consumption and 4.7% of the EU-27’s overall final energy demand in 2019. In 2020, the sector was significantly impacted by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Final energy demand dropped by 56.5%, in line with the reduction in activity (see passenger transport activity, Figure 1, for domestic and international intra-EU aviation). Final energy consumption increased again in 2023, reaching 1.87 million TJ (approximately 92.3% of the amount consumed in 2019).  

Despite policy incentives, the use of sustainable fuels in aviation remains low but is expected to increase over time. The Fit for 55 policy package includes a support mechanism and minimum supply mandate aiming to gradually increase the uptake of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). This should reduce GHG emissions in the aviation sector, although the pace and extent will vary depending on the fuel type, its production process and costs, certification and blending limits, infrastructure adaptation and the feedstock needed to produce it, among other factors.  

The EU ETS Directive uses two mechanisms to create economic incentives for the adoption of alternative sustainable fuels. It considers these fuels to have zero carbon emissions and sets aside allowances to cover the price premium over fossil fuels. This support has been available since 1 January 2024.  

The ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation requires a progressive increase in the supply of SAF at all EU airports. In 2025, 2% of all aviation fuel available at EU airports must be SAF, and the proportion must rise to 70% by 2050. From 2030, synthetic aviation fuel should account for 1.2% of all supplied fuel, rising to 35% by 2050. The regulation applies to aircraft operators, EU airports and their managing bodies, and aviation fuel suppliers. It covers commercial air transport flights departing from EU airports, with certain exceptions and exemptions. The regulation applies to all EU airports with more than 800,000 passengers or over 100,000 tonnes of freight traffic in the previous reporting period (i.e. the calendar year preceding the reporting year) and which are not situated in an outermost region. Member States can be more ambitious at their discretion. For example, they can include airports that do not fall within the scope outlined above. The regulation also includes a transition period, allowing aviation fuel suppliers to supply the minimum shares of SAF as a weighted average across all EU airports until 2034.  

In addition, under the revised EU ETS Directive, additional resources should be made available to support the electrification of aviation and actions to reduce overall climate impacts from the sector. Indeed, Member States must use ETS revenues for climate action, energy transformation and to address the social challenges of carbon pricing.  

The EC’s FF55-MIX scenario estimates that final energy consumption of the aviation sector will remain stable in the near future, at around 1.87 million TJ in 2030 (see Figure 5). This represents a decrease of 7.7% compared to 2019. Under this scenario, aviation will constitute approximately 14.4% of final energy consumption for EU-27 transport and 5.15% of overall energy demand (including international bunkers) in 2030. Other scenarios estimate an increase in flight activity until at least 2030.

The CETO 2024 scenario predicts total energy consumption in the aviation sector will reach 2.27 million TJ by 2030. Aviation is expected to make up about 19% of the total energy used in transport in the EU-27 by 2030.