Freight transport activity

Motorised transport travelled approximately 3,433 billion tonne-kilometres (btkm) in the EU-27 in 2023. This represents an increase of 43% compared to 1995, despite the effects of the 2009 recession or, to a lower extent, the COVID-19 pandemic (see Figure 3). Overall, freight transport activity increased at a CAGR of 1.3% for 28 years during 1995-2023.    

Demand for freight transport is expected to increase further for road, rail and waterborne transport (see Figure 4). The FF55-MIX and CETO 2024 scenarios estimate freight activity from heavy and light commercial vehicles, rail and domestic navigation will lie between 2,999btkm and 3,189btkm in 2030. These estimates correspond to increases in the range of 29.6% to 40.6% in 2030, compared to 2015.    

As with passenger transport, the ETS2 system is expected to have a positive effect for road freight transport, incentivising a shift towards cleaner logistics solutions and discouraging reliance on conventional fuels. The allocation of ETS2 revenues should focus on small and medium-sized enterprises engaged in logistics and distribution. This will ease access to cleaner technologies, bridge financing gaps for upgrading vehicle fleets and sustain competitiveness as the logistics sector transitions towards carbon pricing. Still, other policies are needed to reduce fossil fuel demand and complement the EU’s carbon price.  

Overall, cutting the environmental impacts of the freight system, including its decarbonisation, will be extremely challenging, given current, past and projected future growth in activity. Demand management could help mitigate the impacts of freight mobility effectively. This could be done by, e.g. promoting multi-modal transport combinations with lower environmental impacts (i.e. modes which are less carbon-intensive and have lower pollutant emissions) or limiting inefficiencies in goods distribution (for example, avoiding empty runs, filling to capacity, optimising routes and fuel consumption or improving packaging). Such measures would complement more technologically focused policy measures.

Road freight transport

Road freight transport activity in the EU-27 reached a new high of 1,807btkm in 2023, representing an increase of 60.4% since 1995. Road transport holds a dominant 52.6% share of the movement of goods in the EU-27, an increase of 5.7 percentage points over 1995 to 2023 (see Figure 3).

According to the FF55-MIX and CETO 2024 scenarios, this dominance is expected to continue in the near future. Estimates suggest roughly 2,027btkm to 2,310btkm will be travelled in 2030, corresponding to an increase of around 24.5% to 40% compared to 2015. In 2030, 67.6% to 72.4% of freight is forecast to be transported by road.  

Waterborne freight transport

Domestic and international intra-EU maritime freight transport activity in the EU-27 reached approximately 1,021btkm in 2023, a share of 29.7% of all freight transport. While growth has not matched that of road transport, activity in this sector has increased by 52.1% since 1995.  

Inland waterways activity is relatively minor, oscillating during 1995-2023 and gradually decreasing since 2013. Its share of overall activity fell during this period. Activity is concentrated in a limited number of Member States, with six countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, Belgium, France and Bulgaria) accounting for about 95.7%. Inland waterways carried around 116btkm in the EU-27 in 2023, a decrease of 4.5% compared to 1995 (and 4.6 percentage points lower than in 2022). This corresponds to a share in overall transport activity of 3.4%.

European Climate Risk Assessment

The EC has highlighted the importance of a shift away from road towards rail and waterways, both through the European Green Deal and the EU’s sustainable and smart mobility strategy. The strategy aims to increase inland waterways and short sea shipping activity by 25% and 50% by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Notably, this does not directly imply a change in the transport mix, since overall transport demand and other transport modes could grow over this period. In addition, inland waterways could be particularly affected by the increasing frequency of droughts and floods due to climate change. This could disrupt operations and reduce the reliability of inland waterway transport, diminishing its attractiveness compared to other modes.

According to the FF55-MIX and CETO 2024 scenarios, domestic navigation (which includes inland waterways and domestic maritime) is expected to reach between 286.7btkm and 371btkm in 2030, corresponding to an increase of 28.1% and 29% in comparison with 2015.

Rail freight transport

Freight rail activity oscillated during 1995-2023, peaking at around 432btkm in 2018 (just above the 2007 level) and reaching roughly 396btkm in 2023. This represents an increase of 5.6% since 1995. Rail is the third most important transport mode in the freight sector and it accounted for 11.5% of all tonne-kilometres in 2023 (Figure 3). Despite this, its modal share has decreased by 4.1 percentage points since 1995. Collecting information on rail freight activity is complex, especially on foreign railways (i.e. where companies are based in one country and operate in another). A fraction of these activities may not be fully captured in national statistics. The European Railway Agency’s latest assessment on the environmental impacts of the railway sector in the EU-27 points to improvements in digital reporting and tracking tools designed to capture the full spectrum of rail activity more accurately.  

Despite the decrease in modal share, rail freight transport is projected to increase significantly this decade. Estimates suggest between 591.9btkm and 600btkm will be travelled in 2030, corresponding to an increase in the range of 48.5% to 51.4% compared to 2015. An increased focus on rail freight transport, as discussed above, is also supported in the EU’s sustainable and smart mobility strategy.  

Others

The use of oil pipelines for freight transport in the EU decreased by 13% from 1995 to 2023. Standing at approximately 100btkm in 1995, it peaked at around 130btkm in 2005, before dipping to about 90btkm in 2023.

Domestic and international intra-EU aviation accounts for a very small percentage of overall freight activity (0.1%). Nevertheless, it increased significantly (by 54%) from 1995 to 2023, reaching 2btkm in 2023.