Passenger transport activity

A total of 5,932 billion passenger-kilometres (pkm) were travelled across the EU-27 in 2023, excluding extra-EU aviation, through the motorised transport modes listed in Figure 1. This represents an increase of 31.8% compared to 1995 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1% (still below the 1.2% CAGR over 1995 to 2019). There was already a steady return towards pre-COVID activity levels from 2020 to 2023.    

Importantly, overall transport activity is expected to grow further under the FF55-MIX and CETO 2024 scenarios from the EC (see Figure 2). Additional information on these scenarios can be found in the Annex. Projections indicate an increase in the range of 15.5% to 23.8% by 2030, compared to 2015.    

Reducing the environmental impacts of passenger transport (including decarbonisation) is extremely challenging due to the past, current and predicted future level of passenger transport activity. Climate action could focus on designing systems that improve well-being, while requiring less energy and materials. One potentially effective strategy to mitigate the impacts of mobility is managing demand whenever possible, e.g. by promoting a shift towards active or collective transport modes or through increased accessibility to local services (such as hospitals, schools, grocery shops or pharmacies). This should be used to complement more technologically focused policies. 

ETS2 is expected to have a positive climatic impact on road passenger activity in the EU. It will introduce carbon pricing to fossil fuel use in road transport, with an annually declining cap designed to align with the EU’s ambitions for climate neutrality. This should incentivise a shift towards cleaner mobility options and discourage reliance on conventional fuels. To alleviate the social impact of embedding the carbon cost in fuel prices, revenues from ETS2 will be used to support vulnerable households and micro-enterprises affected by energy or transport poverty and to promote investment in sustainable infrastructure, digitalisation and accessibility. Still, other policies are needed to reduce fossil fuel demand and complement the EU’s carbon price.

Passenger car transport

Passenger cars travelled 4,272 billion pkm in 2023, approaching the 4,351 billion pkm from 2019. This mode was one of the main drivers of growth in EU-27 transport activity, alongside aviation. The number of pkm travelled by passenger cars rose by 30% between 1995 and 2023. Passenger cars accounted for 72% of pkm travelled in the EU-27 in 2023, making it by far the most important mode of transport (see Figure 1). This share has remained fairly constant over time, with the exception of 2020 and 2021, when the share of passenger cars increased, by 8.6 and 7.1 percentage points, respectively, compared to 2019.  

The EU’s sustainable and smart mobility strategy identifies the need to shift ‘more activity towards more sustainable transport modes’. For passenger transport this will be achieved through different milestones: (1) all scheduled collective travel under 500km to be carbon neutral by 2030; (2) doubling and tripling activity on high-speed rail by 2030 and 2050, respectively; and (3) having 100 climate-neutral cities in Europe by 2030. However, most of these actions foresee an increase in absolute activity without any explicit consideration of the resulting transport mix.  

Under the FF55-MIX and CETO 2024 scenarios, passenger cars will remain the dominant mode of transport in the EU-27 for the near future. Estimates suggest roughly 4,533 billion to 4,750 billion pkm will be travelled by passenger cars in 2030. This represents an increase in the range of 11.7% to 15.5%, compared to the activity modelled for 2015. According to the FF55-MIX scenario, 69.9% of all pkm will still be travelled by passenger cars in 2030.  

Public transport

Public modes of transport — buses, trains (including high-speed ones), trams and metros — are the most environmentally friendly option. They generally have lower emissions or consume less energy per pkm travelled compared to, for example, passenger cars or motorbikes. Public transport activity reached around 990 billion pkm in the EU-27 in 2019, a reduction of 2.4 percentage points as a share of transport activity compared with 1995. This share reached approximately 16.4% in 2019. The number of pkm travelled by public transport plummeted in 2020, but has now started to recover, reaching 939 billion pkm in 2023. This equates to a reduction of 2.9 percentage points in modal share compared to 1995, meaning 15.8% of pkm in the EU-27 used public transport in 2023.

Overall, these figures demonstrate that public means of transportation (especially trains and, to a lesser extent, buses) have started to show signs of recovery from the changes in mobility habits associated with the pandemic. Compared with 1995, in 2023 bus travel fell by 8.6% (less than the 13.8% decline of 2022), train travel increased by 39.9% (already recovering from the 4.2% decline in 2022) and tram and metro travel rose by 15.8% (more than the 8.6% increase of 2022). For comparison, the equivalent figures for 2019 show bus travel increased by 3.4%, train travel by 34% and tram and metro travel by 36.5%.  

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from heavy-duty vehicles in Europe

High-speed rail travel reached a new peak in 2023, growing to 136.7 billion pkm and representing a 31.3% increase in all rail pkm travelled. This illustrates a strong recovery from the drastic fall in activity seen during the pandemic: it accounted for just 68 billion pkm in 2020. France, Germany, Spain and Italy were largely responsible for this increase, with 93.2% of all high-speed activity in the EU-27 taking place in these four countries in 2023.  

Additionally, there is a new wave of passenger sleeper trains, overnight trains with berths and/or couchettes for sleeping. Sleeper train numbers had been in rapid decline since about 2010, until a recent revival in the last few years coinciding with new routes and an increase in numbers. The European Commission is supporting the development of additional night train connections, alongside other long-distance cross-border services (through a total of 10 pilot projects). This represents part of the follow-up to the EC’s action plan to boost long-distance and cross-border passenger rail, now complemented with the acceleration of high-speed rail across Europe.

The European Union Agency for Railways recently published a new assessment of the environmental impacts of the railway sector in the EU-27. This highlights its minimal air pollutant output, high degree of energy independence (if powered by renewable sources) and high land-use efficiency among mass road transport options, along with ongoing challenges (mainly regarding noise pollution and biodiversity impacts from infrastructure).  

According to the FF55-MIX and CETO 2024 scenarios, public transport is expected to expand in the EU-27 in the near future to reach between 1,156 billion and 1,174 billion pkm by 2030. This represents an increase in the range of 21.5% to 22.6% compared to 2015. However, due to the concurrent expansion of other transport modes, the public transport’s share will reach a range of 14.8% to 18.1% in 2030, a slight variation in the share of -0.003 to 1.1 percentage points compared to 2015. The expectation is that increased public transport activity is likely to be driven mainly by the railway sector, anticipating that rail transport activity will account for 7.6% to 9.8% of all forecast transport activity, i.e. an increase of 0.003 to 1.4 percentage points compared to 2015. The EU’s sustainable and smart mobility strategy, referred to in the passenger cars section above, calls for a significant expansion of the railway sector, both for conventional and high-speed trains. Fulfilling such a vision will require significant effort.  

Bus and coach activity is also projected to increase, up to an overall share of passenger transport activity of 7.1% to 8.4%, which is a reduction of 0.006 to 0.3 percentage points compared to 2015. This indicates that a significant modal shift is not expected. According to an amendment of the CO₂ standards for heavy-duty vehicles, urban buses will need to have zero CO₂ tailpipe emissions by 2035, potentially increasing the relevance of this transport mode from a climate perspective.

Aviation (domestic and international intra-EU)

Domestic and international intra-EU-27 air travel accounted for 582 billion pkm in 2023 (a 9.8% modal share), already surpassing the 575 billion pkm from 2019. Excluding the pandemic effect in 2020 and some of 2021, demand for aviation has grown constantly since 1995, with a 145.3% increase from 1995 to 2023. Its share in total transport activity has also grown by 4.5 percentage points over the same period. These figures do not include extra-EU-27 aviation. A total of 973 million air passengers travelled in the EU in 2023, with 146 million passengers carried on national flights, 350 million on international intra-EU flights and 477 million on extra-EU flights.

According to the FF55-MIX and CETO 2024 scenarios, domestic and international aviation activity is expected to grow by 35.9% to 59% by 2030 compared to 2015, reaching around 612 billion to 876 billion pkm. This corresponds to a modal share of 9.4% in the total forecast passenger activity in 2030, according to the MIX-FF55 scenario.  

Waterborne navigation (domestic and international intra-EU)

Domestic and international intra-EU-27 maritime passenger transport accounted for 21 billion pkm in 2023, already returning to pre-pandemic levels (activity dropped to 11 billion pkm in 2020). This represents a modal share of 0.3%. Activity for this mode declined by approximately 9% from 1995 to 2023.

According to the FF55-MIX scenario, domestic navigation (which includes domestic maritime and inland waterways) is expected to reach 39 billion pkm by 2030. This would represent a share of 0.6% in overall transport activity and correspond to an increase of 15.8% compared to the simulated activity of 34 billion pkm in 2015. Note, however, that these figures reflect a different aggregation to those in the historical time-series as they exclude international intra-EU transport. They are therefore not directly comparable.

Others

Powered two-wheelers have represented a reasonably constant share of total transport activity over the years, at around 2% in 2023. This corresponded to about 117 billion pkm. The FF55-MIX scenario forecasts a similar level for 2030. This ‘others’ category does not include e-bikes and pedelecs, despite the relevance of such modes for both urban and rural mobility. While very few data exist for these transport modes, their overall contribution to transport activity (measured in pkm) may not be very evident compared to other modes as they tend to travel shorter distances.