Greenhouse gas emissions under the EU Emissions Trading System

Since its launch in 2005, Europe’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has aided large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from power plants and energy-intensive industries. Carbon pricing, fuel switching and climate policies, including those backing renewable energy, supported a 51% decline in emissions from stationary installations from 2005 to 2024. Aviation, also under the EU ETS, shows a different trend with 2024 emissions rebounding close to pre-pandemic levels. For the ETS scope, including international shipping, projections indicate that the 62% reduction target by 2030, compared to 2005 levels, is within reach.

Figure 1. Historical and projected emissions from stationary installations covered by the EU Emissions Trading System in the European Economic Area

The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a ‘cap and trade’ system that limits annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from stationary installations, including power plants and carbon-intensive industries, flights within the European Economic Area and international shipping since 2024. The overall cap decreases annually to align with EU climate targets. Since its launch in 2005, the EU ETS has increased in scope and ambition, now covering 37% of total GHG emissions from the European Economic Area. In 2027, the EU ETS2 system will be introduced to incentivise emission reductions in buildings, road transport and small industries.

Between 2005 and 2024, emissions from stationary installations have declined by 51%. Key drivers of these reductions include a rising carbon price set by the EU ETS, shifts in relative fuel prices that encouraged a move away from coal, and renewable energy policies aimed at decarbonising the power sector. Energy efficiency improvements, significant reductions in the industrial sector, and global events such as the 2008 economic crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic have also contributed.

Data for 2024 show a decrease of 7% in emissions from stationary installations compared to 2023. While this reduction kept emissions well below the cap, it was much smaller than the sharp 15% drop between 2022 and 2023 - the largest annual reduction since the EU ETS began.

According to projections provided by participating countries, emissions from stationary installations are expected to decline by 62% below 2005 levels by 2030 under a 'with existing measures' (WEM) scenario. The more ambitious “with additional measures” (WAM) scenario projects a 66% reduction in 2030 compared to 2005. The power sector and, to a lesser extent, manufacturing industries, are expected to account for most of the projected reduction in EU ETS emissions. With these estimates, strong, decisive and continued efforts remain crucial to keep the EU on track to climate neutrality by 2050.

Figure 2. Changes in emissions covered by the EU Emissions Trading System by sector, 2013-2023, relative to 2013

Most EU ETS emission reductions over the past decade can be attributed to fuel combustion, particularly in the power sector, reflecting the ongoing decarbonisation of the European energy system.

In 2024, emissions from fuel combustion and cement clinker production continued to fall, albeit more slowly than in 2023, while emissions from oil refining and iron and steel production remained broadly stable.

Emissions from aviation have grown rapidly, and reached a level in 2024 of more than 30% above that observed in 2013. This trend was driven by increased air travel and challenges in decarbonising this sector. Emissions dropped temporarily due to strict travel restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic, yet have rebounded to nearly pre-pandemic heights, accounting for 5% of total EU ETS emissons in 2024. Maritime transport has been included in the EU ETS since 2024, contributing 7% to total EU ETS emissions.

Supporting information

Definition

This indicator shows greenhouse gas emissions covered under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) since its inception in 2005. It also shows projections of the emissions to 2030 and the maximum number of emissions allowances (cap) foreseen.

Figure 2 shows the evolution of emissions, in percentage change since 2013, for selected industrial sectors and for aviation. The year 2013 was chosen since it is the first year offering a comparable scope in sectoral categories.

Detailed data and information on historical ETS emissions can be found in the ETS data viewer and associated documentation. Information on GHG Projections can be found in the dedicated data viewer, datahub and Climate and Energy platform.

Geographical scope:

The EU ETS applies in the European Economic Area, comprising all the EU Member States, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway. The United Kingdom does not participate in the EU ETS since 2021 and has been excluded from this indicator. The exception are power plants in Northern Ireland, which are included in the system. For intra-European flights, the ETS includes flights departing and landing within the European Economic Area, as well as flights to Switzerland and the UK. Flights to and from outermost EU regions will be added from 2024. For extra-European flights the obligations under the EU ETS Directive can be fulfilled through the Carbon offsetting and reduction scheme for international aviation (CORSIA).

Sectors:

The EU ETS applies to stationary facilities covering the electricity and heat sector and energy-intensive industries, over certain thresholds. Flights departing and landing within participating countries are also covered by the ETS, as well as flights from EEA countries to UK and Switzerland. From 2024 onward, international shipping will be included. For more information on the scope of the ETS please visit the dedicated Commission’s website.

Projections:

The projections from EU Member States, Iceland and Norway were provided by the countries to the EEA as part of their reporting under Article 18 of the Governance Regulation. Emissions from Liechtenstein are projected to be zero, as their ETS emissions in 2021 and 2022. Emissions of Northern Ireland have been estimated, applying the average reduction of EU-27 countries.

Targets:

The indicator considers the current scope of the EU ETS, while the new target applies to an extended scope including also maritime transport, among other changes. More information is available in DG CLIMA’s website. the Carbon offsetting reduciton scheme for interantional aviation.

Methodology

Data on emissions from the EU ETS originates from the European Commission's Union Registry website. These data are then processed by the European Topic Centre on Climate Change Mitigation (ETC-CM). More information available on the ETC-CM documentation (under the tab Additional Information).

The scope of the EU ETS has changed since its inception, with new sectors, gases and countries being added. To make emissions comparable across years, an estimate was made to reflect the current scope across the whole timeline (i.e. how emissions would have been in the past if the current scope was applied). More information on this scope estimate can be found here.

Projections of greenhouse gases are provided by Member States to the EEA under the Governance Regulation. This occurs every two years with some Member States providing updates yearly.

Policy/environmental relevance

The EU ETS is a cornerstone of the EU's policy to combat climate change and its key tool for reducing greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. It is the world's first major carbon market and remains the biggest one.

The EU ETS is a ‘cap and trade system’, whereby a cap (i.e. a determined quantity of emission allowances) is set on the emissions from the installations covered by the system. The cap decreases gradually in order to achieve emission reductions over time. Installations can trade emission allowances with one another, which ensures that emission reductions take place where it costs the least.

This indicator helps monitoring the reduction in emissions under this key mechanism and tracking the progress towards the agreed target. It also illustrates differences between different industrial sectors and aviation, highlighting differences in progress among them.

Accuracy and uncertaintiesData sources and providers

Metadata

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Greenhouse gas emissions under the EU Emissions Trading System

Figure 1. Historical and projected emissions from stationary installations covered by the EU Emissions Trading System in the European Economic Area

Figure 2. Changes in emissions covered by the EU Emissions Trading System by sector, 2013-2023, relative to 2013

Supporting information

Metadata

References and footnotes