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Member States' greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections

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Prod-ID: DAT-2-en
Created 26 Oct 2021 Published 26 Oct 2021 Last modified 26 Oct 2022
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The Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action ((EU) 2018/1999) requires Member States to report national projections of anthropogenic GHG emissions. Every two years, each EU Member State shall report GHG projections in a ‘with existing measures’ scenario for the years 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040, by gas (or group of gases) and by sector. National projections shall take into consideration any policies and measures adopted at Union level. The reported data are quality checked by the EEA and its European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME).

European data

2020 GHG projections, reported and quality checked in 2019 and 2020

Metadata

information.png Reporting obligations (ROD)
information.png Rights:
EEA standard re-use policy: unless otherwise indicated, re-use of content on the EEA website for commercial or non-commercial purposes is permitted free of charge, provided that the source is acknowledged (https://www.eea.europa.eu/legal/copyright). Copyright holder: European Environment Agency (EEA).
information.png Methodology:

Data reported by the EU Member States (MS) under the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (MMR) have been quality checked and adjusted if appropriate by the European Topic Centre for Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME).

Every two years MS  shall report to the Commission national projections of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by sources and removals by sinks, organised by gas or group of gases (HFCs and PFCs) and by sector. Those projections shall include quantitative estimates for a sequence of four future years ending with 0 or 5 immediately following the reporting year. National projections shall take into consideration any policies and measures adopted at Union level.

GHG projections data are presented per MS, year, scenario, category and gas. There are originally reported data and final (corrected or gap-filled when necessary) data. Two types of projections are presented: projections taking into account the (current) existing domestic policies and measures (WEM, with existing measures) and projections taking also into account additional (planned) domestic policies and measures (WAM, with additional measures).

Domestic policies and measures are those taking place within the national boundaries. Existing policies and measures are those for which one or more of the following applies: a) national legislation is in force; b) one or more voluntary agreements have been established; c) financial resources have been allocated; d) human resources have been mobilised; e) an official government decision has been made and there is a clear commitment to proceed with implementation. Additional (planned) policies and measures are options under discussion with a realistic chance of being adopted and implemented in time to influence the emissions during the commitment period.

The detailed methodology used for the quality assurance and quality control procedure for national and Union GHG projections is outlined in the report ‘Quality assurance and quality control procedure for national and Union GHG projections (2021)’  and can be downloaded from: https://www.eionet.europa.eu/reportnet/docs/govreg/projections

information.png Units:

Kilotonnes CO2 equivalent (ktCO2e).

information.png Data sources

Datasets based on Member States submissions in 2021 under the Governance Regulation (EU) 2018/1999.

information.png Owners:
European Environment Agency (EEA)
information.png Processors:
European Commission
European Topic Centre on Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME)

Additional information

Data reported by the EU Member States (MS) under the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action (EU) 2018/1999 (Governance Regulation)  have been quality checked and adjusted if appropriate by the European Topic Centre Climate Change Mitigation and Energy (ETC/CME).

GHG projections data are presented per MS, year, scenario, category and gas. There are originally reported data and final (corrected or gap-filled when necessary) data. Two types of projections are presented: projections taking into account the (current) existing domestic policies and measures (WEM, with existing measures) and projections taking also into account additional (planned) domestic policies and measures (WAM, with additional measures).

Being 2021 a mandatory year, all Member States reported their GHG projections.

The detailed methodology used for the quality assurance and quality control procedure for national and Union GHG projections is outlined in the report ‘Quality assurance and quality control procedure for national and Union GHG projections (2021)’  and can be downloaded from: https://www.eionet.europa.eu/reportnet/docs/govreg/projections

 

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Produced Indicators

Produced figures

Figure Historical (1990-2020) and projected (2020-2040) emissions from the agriculture sector in the EU-27 The figure shows the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the agriculture sector. The GHG emission trend consists of historical emissions (1990-2020) and projected emissions (2021-2040).
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Historical trends and future projections of greenhouse gas emissions This figure shows the greenhouse gas emission targets, historical and future trends for the EU Member States (EU-27).
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EU-27 Effort Sharing, ETS, LULUCF trends and projections This figure shows the EU-27 greenhouse gas emission targets, historical and future emission trends of the Effort Sharing, ETS and LULUCF.
Figure National progress towards GHG emission targets for 2020 and 2030 This figure shows the progress of EU Member States towards their Effort Sharing targets 2020 and 2030.

Related publications

Publication Recent trends and projections in EU greenhouse gas emissions Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the European Union (EU) increased by 0.6 % in 2017, according to preliminary estimates from Member States, mostly because of road transport. Without further robust and ambitious policies and measures, those currently in place at national level will be insufficient to achieve the reduction targets set for 2030.
Publication Trends and projections in the EU ETS in 2018 The report provides an analysis of past, present and future emissions trends under the EU ETS, based on the latest data and information available from the European Commission and Member States. It also analyses the balance between supply and demand of allowances in the market. The report's annexes provide extensive material describing the functioning, scope and cap of the EU ETS.
Publication Trends and projections in Europe 2018 The annual ‘Trends and projections’ report provides an assessment of the progress of the EU and European countries towards their climate mitigation and energy targets. It is based on national data for greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy and energy consumption.
Publication National policies and measures on climate change mitigation in Europe in 2017 Technical overview of the information reported by Member States under the European Union's climate Monitoring Mechanism Regulation. The 2018 edition of the European Environment Agency (EEA) report National policies and measures on climate mitigation in Europe presents an overview of the information on 1 513 national policies and measures (PaMs) on climate change mitigation reported in 2017 by Member States under the European Union (EU)'s climate Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (MMR). It also takes stock of the progress made at national level to plan, adopt and implement new policies since the 2015 reporting exercise.

Used in indicators

Indicator Specification Greenhouse gas emissions from energy use in buildings in Europe This indicator presents past and latest year estimates and projected emissions trends for energy used in the residential and commercial sector in the European Union. Historical data include emissions from the use of fossil fuel in buildings (also called direct emissions) and emissions from the use of electricity (also called indirect emissions); the latter come from the emissions resulting from the production of electricity subsequently used in buildings. Emissions from the construction, renovation or demolition of buildings are not covered by this indicator.
Indicator Specification Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture in Europe The indicator comprises historical and projected emissions estimates from the agriculture sector (CRF category 3), as well as historical emissions estimates from energy consumption in agriculture, forestry and fishing, expressed in million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO 2 e). Historical emissions are presented at subcategory level with some aggregation (see Methodology for details), whereas projected emissions with existing measures and with additional measures are presented at aggregate level for the agriculture sector (CRF sector 3 only; excludes energy consumption).
Indicator Specification Greenhouse gas emissions from land use, land use change and forestry The indicator comprises historical and projected emissions estimates from the LULUCF sector. Historical emissions are presented by main land use category, whereas projected emissions are presented at aggregate level.
Indicator Specification Total greenhouse gas emissions trends and projections in Europe This indicator presents past and projected emissions trends in Europe and assesses the progress of the EU towards its international and internal GHG targets. The EU’s total GHG emissions are shown in the context of the EU’s overall climate targets and disaggregated trends are shown to illustrate the development of emissions covered by the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and the Effort Sharing Legislation, as well as those from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). Emissions from international aviation are included in total GHG emissions and depicted separately, together with the disaggregated trends. In accordance with the UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines, total GHG emissions do not cover emissions from international shipping, net LULUCF emissions and/or removals, and CO 2  emissions from the combustion of biomass (including biofuels in transport). The indicator covers all 27 Member States of the European Union and the UK for historic emissions trends. Future emissions trends (from 2021 onwards) do not include the United Kingdom.
Indicator Specification Progress towards national greenhouse gas emissions targets in Europe This indicator presents the sectoral trends and projections for GHG emissions under the scope of the Effort Sharing legislation in the EU-27 and assesses the annual progress of the EU member States throughout the entire compliance period of the Effort Sharing Decision (2013-2020).

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