Observed annual mean temperature trend from 1960 to 2024 (left panel) and projected 21st century temperature change under different SSP scenarios (right panels) in Europe

Left panel: Temperature trend from reanalysis dataset ERA5-Land produced by European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

Right panel: Projected temperature change between the WMO reference period 1981-2010 and the end of the 21^st century (period 2081-2100) under the scenario SSP1-2.6, and projected temperature change between the WMO reference period 1981-2010 and the end of the 21^st century (period 2081-2100) under the scenario SSP5-8.5.

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Units

Left panel: °C/decade
Right panels: °C

Additional information

Right panels:
Data of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The data of this modeling initiative are used in the IPCC AR6 report.

Methodology

Left panel: Shows the linear trend of mean annual temperature over the period 1960-2024. A two-sided Student's t test for the null hypothesis of no trend is applied and grid cells with non-statisticaly significant results are hatched. (There are no non-significant values in this update and therefore there is no hatching).

Right panels: Data are based on the ensemble mean of 32 global CMIP6 models, results are interpolated onto the CMIP6 reference grid of 1x1 degrees using a conservative method, temporal aggregation is carried out by calculating mean values from daily data for the whole period. Data shown in the map are calculated for each grid cell as the arithmetic difference between historical projection 1981–2010 and future projection for the period 2081–2100 using the SSP1-2.6 scenario.
SSP scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) are the new scenarios representing different socio-economic developments as well as different pathways of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Five naratives describes different path of economy and society (SSP1-SSP5) from the sustainable and “green” pathway (SSP1) to fossil-fueled development and integration of global markets (SSP5). Individual scenarios are followed by two numerals indicating the additional radiative forcing achieved by the year 2100 in units of watts per square meter.

Observed annual mean temperature trend from 1960 to 2024 (left panel) and projected 21st century temperature change under different SSP scenarios (right panels) in Europe

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References and footnotes