Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in Europe

The transport sector is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union and has shown little progress in emission reduction in recent decades. Despite efforts such as increasing the deployment of electric vehicles and promoting low-carbon fuels, transport emissions have only declined slightly since 2005, with a temporary reduction in 2020 due to COVID-19. Estimates of 2024 indicate a small increase in GHG emissions from transport of 0.7%, compared with 2023 levels. Member States project that domestic transport emissions will meet 1990 levels in 2030. International aviation and maritime emissions are projected to increase further.

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Metadata
DPSIR Pressure
Typology Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
UN SDGs SDG13: Climate action
Topics Transport and mobility, Climate change mitigation
Temporal coverage { "readOnly": true, "temporal": [ { "label": "1990", "value": "1990" }, { "label": "1991", "value": "1991" }, { "label": "1992", "value": "1992" }, { "label": "1993", "value": "1993" }, { "label": "1994", "value": "1994" }, { "label": "1995", "value": "1995" }, { "label": "1996", "value": "1996" }, { "label": "1997", "value": "1997" }, { "label": "1998", "value": "1998" }, { "label": "1999", "value": "1999" }, { "label": "2000", "value": "2000" }, { "label": "2001", "value": "2001" }, { "label": "2002", "value": "2002" }, { "label": "2003", "value": "2003" }, { "label": "2004", "value": "2004" }, { "label": "2005", "value": "2005" }, { "label": "2006", "value": "2006" }, { "label": "2007", "value": "2007" }, { "label": "2008", "value": "2008" }, { "label": "2009", "value": "2009" }, { "label": "2010", "value": "2010" }, { "label": "2011", "value": "2011" }, { "label": "2012", "value": "2012" }, { "label": "2013", "value": "2013" }, { "label": "2014", "value": "2014" }, { "label": "2015", "value": "2015" }, { "label": "2016", "value": "2016" }, { "label": "2017", "value": "2017" }, { "label": "2018", "value": "2018" }, { "label": "2019", "value": "2019" }, { "label": "2020", "value": "2020" }, { "label": "2021", "value": "2021" }, { "label": "2022", "value": "2022" }, { "label": "2023", "value": "2023" }, { "label": "2024", "value": "2024" }, { "label": "2025", "value": "2025" }, { "label": "2026", "value": "2026" }, { "label": "2027", "value": "2027" }, { "label": "2028", "value": "2028" }, { "label": "2029", "value": "2029" }, { "label": "2030", "value": "2030" }, { "label": "2031", "value": "2031" }, { "label": "2032", "value": "2032" }, { "label": "2033", "value": "2033" }, { "label": "2034", "value": "2034" }, { "label": "2035", "value": "2035" }, { "label": "2036", "value": "2036" }, { "label": "2037", "value": "2037" }, { "label": "2038", "value": "2038" }, { "label": "2039", "value": "2039" }, { "label": "2040", "value": "2040" } ] }
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Workflow
Content responsible Head of Group Suzanne Dael
Layout
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Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in Europe" } ], "type": "h4" } ] } }, "blocks_layout": { "items": [ "8f64d4dd-dbcc-4652-a7ed-37e87aabc150" ] } }, "id": "figure-metadata-b0279dde-1ceb-4137-a7f1-5ab7b46a782c", "styles": {} }, "72e04794-34d7-420c-966a-281a866051ba": { "@type": "slate", "plaintext": "By 2030, current policies and measures are projected to deliver GHG emissions from transport that would reach 1990 levels. With additional measures, those emissions would be 13% below 1990 levels. Most planned policies and measures in the transport sector focus on promoting low-carbon fuels or zero-emission technologies , as well as encouraging a modal shift to public transport and active mobility modes.", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "By 2030, current policies and measures are projected to deliver GHG emissions from transport that would reach 1990 levels. With additional measures, those emissions would be 13% below 1990 levels. Most planned policies and measures in the transport sector focus on promoting " }, { "type": "strong", "children": [ { "text": "low-carbon fuels or zero-emission technologies" } ] }, { "text": ", as well as encouraging a modal shift to public transport and active mobility modes. " } ], "type": "p" } ] }, "b0279dde-1ceb-4137-a7f1-5ab7b46a782c": { "@type": "embed_content", "disableNewBlocks": true, "fixed": true, "instructions": { "content-type": "text/html", "data": "<p>figure instructions goes here</p>", "encoding": "utf8" }, "readOnlySettings": true, "required": true, "url": "../../../../resolveuid/2442a6aa132d402db599f7c28033d0b6" }, "c79dca20-f018-4955-be00-c8af62114feb": { "@type": "slate", "plaintext": "According to their national emission projections, Member States expect a general decrease in transport emissions over the next decades. These projections differentiate between the expected emission reductions from current policies and measures, and the additional reductions that planned measures can generate. The requirements for the projections are established in the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action Regulation .", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "According to their national emission projections, Member States expect a " }, { "type": "strong", "children": [ { "text": "general decrease in transport" } ] }, { "text": " emissions over the next decades. These projections differentiate between the expected emission reductions from current policies and measures, and the additional reductions that planned measures can generate. The requirements for the projections are established in the " }, { "children": [ { "text": "Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action Regulation" } ], "data": { "url": "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2018/1999/oj" }, "type": "link" }, { "text": "." } ], "type": "p" } ] }, "deb7e84d-d2c8-4491-90fa-3dc65fe02143": { "@type": "slate", "fixed": true, "instructions": { "content-type": "text/html", "data": "<p><br/></p>", "encoding": "utf8" }, "plaintext": "", "readOnlySettings": true, "required": true, "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" } ] }, "ed569235-0a97-4dba-87bd-ff17c2593023": { "@type": "slate", "plaintext": "Reducing emissions is one of the greatest challenges in achieving a sustainable transformation of the EU\u2019s mobility systems, as highlighted in the EEA\u2019s annually updated report on Sustainability of Europe\u2019s mobility systems . The EU\u2019s domestic GHG transport emissions show a weak downward trend since 2005. The most significant drop occurred in 2020 due to effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Emissions rebounded again in 2021 and 2022, and following a one-year reduction in 2023 appear to have grown again in 2024. Preliminary data estimates this growth in 2024 to be 0.7% higher than 2023 levels.", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "Reducing emissions is one of the greatest challenges in achieving a " }, { "type": "strong", "children": [ { "text": "sustainable transformation" } ] }, { "text": " of the EU\u2019s mobility systems, as highlighted in the EEA\u2019s annually updated report on " }, { "children": [ { "text": "Sustainability of Europe\u2019s mobility systems" } ], "data": { "url": "../../../../resolveuid/668101761d034b43b6776244803d97c0" }, "type": "link" }, { "text": ". The EU\u2019s domestic GHG transport emissions show a " }, { "type": "strong", "children": [ { "text": "weak downward trend " } ] }, { "text": "since 2005. The most significant drop occurred in 2020 due to effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Emissions rebounded again in 2021 and 2022, and following a one-year reduction in 2023 appear to have grown again in 2024. Preliminary data estimates this growth in 2024 to be 0.7% higher than 2023 levels." } ], "type": "p" } ] }, "85232424-3f6e-4d95-ba79-545d8c6e53ba": { "@type": "slate", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "Among the domestic transport categories, emissions from domestic navigation and rail have decreased, while domestic aviation has increased since 1990. They are projected to remain relatively stable in the coming years. Only road transport emissions are projected to decrease. " } ], "type": "p" } ], "plaintext": "Among the domestic transport categories, emissions from domestic navigation and rail have decreased, while domestic aviation has increased since 1990. They are projected to remain relatively stable in the coming years. 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" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Flight numbers are expected to return to 2019 levels by 2025/2026" } ], "data": { "url": "https://www.eurocontrol.int/publication/eurocontrol-forecast-2025-2031" }, "type": "link" }, { "text": ". " } ], "type": "p" } ] }, "68add651-5a5a-4ea5-aad3-71913e271ac4": { "@type": "slate", "plaintext": "The greatest increases up to 2030 are projected for aviation and international maritime transport. This continues the trend in emissions from both activities, which have grown since 1990. With road transport emissions set to decline, aviation and maritime emissions are therefore expected to constitute a higher proportion of transport sector emissions in the coming years.", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "The " }, { "type": "strong", "children": [ { "text": "greatest increases" } ] }, { "text": " up to 2030 are projected for " }, { "type": "strong", "children": [ { "text": "aviation and international maritime" } ] }, { "text": " transport. This continues the trend in emissions from both activities, which have grown since 1990. With road transport emissions set to decline, aviation and maritime emissions are therefore expected to constitute a higher proportion of transport sector emissions in the coming years." } ], "type": "p" } ] }, "8543bcae-c256-4107-a239-b3ff6e28e9f3": { "@type": "slate", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "Road transport constitutes the " }, { "type": "strong", "children": [ { "text": "highest proportion" } ] }, { "text": " of overall transport emissions. In 2023, it emitted 73% of all EU\u2019s transport GHG emissions (including international bunkers). 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Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in the EU, by transport mode and scenario", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "Figure 2. 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"description", "disableNewBlocks": true, "fixed": true, "instructions": { "content-type": "text/html", "data": "<p>The summary tells the reader about the indicator trend over the examined period and whether or not it helps to achieve the associated policy objective, which can be either quantitative or directional.</p><p>In the absence of a policy objective, it explains whether the trend is in the right or wrong direction in relation to the issue examined.</p><p>If there has been an important change over the most recent period of the time series, e.g. over the last year, this is indicated too.</p><p>Furthermore, if there is a quantitative target, it also indicates whether we are on track to meet it and if not what are the reasons preventing that, e.g. socio-economic drivers, implementation gap etc.</p>", "encoding": "utf8" }, "placeholder": "Summary", "plaintext": "The transport sector is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union and has shown little progress in emission reduction in recent decades. Despite efforts such as increasing the deployment of electric vehicles and promoting low-carbon fuels, transport emissions have only declined slightly since 2005, with a temporary reduction in 2020 due to COVID-19. Estimates of 2024 indicate a small increase in GHG emissions from transport of 0.7%, compared with 2023 levels. Member States project that domestic transport emissions will meet 1990 levels in 2030. International aviation and maritime emissions are projected to increase further.", "readOnlySettings": true, "required": true, "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "The transport sector is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union and has shown little progress in emission reduction in recent decades. Despite efforts such as increasing the deployment of electric vehicles and promoting low-carbon fuels, transport emissions have only declined slightly since 2005, with a temporary reduction in 2020 due to COVID-19. 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Supporting information
Methodology [ { "children": [ { "text": "Methodology for indicator calculation" } ], "type": "h4" }, { "children": [ { "text": "The indicator uses information from three EEA data sets: the greenhouse gas emissions inventory, approximated estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and greenhouse gas emissions projections." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "The aggregated level assessment uses historical and projected GHG emissions for the transport sector as a whole: this is a sum of IPCC categories 1.A.3 (transport), 1.D.1.a (international aviation) and 1.D.1.b (international maritime transport)." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "The disaggregated level assessment uses historical and projected GHG emissions for various transport modes: road transport (IPCC category 1.A.3.b), railway transport (1.A.3.c), domestic navigation (1.A.3.d), international maritime transport (1.D.1.b) and aviation (1.A.3.a and 1.D.1.a)." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Projections cover the period 2015-2035 (the historic years in the projections show values used for calibrating the projection). Two distinct projection scenarios are developed by the Member States, based on different levels of implementation of climate mitigation policies: the \u2018with existing measures\u2019 scenario includes policies already adopted, while the \u2018with additional measures\u2019 scenario includes planned policies and national targets." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Methodology for gap filling" } ], "type": "h4" }, { "children": [ { "text": "No methodology for gap filling has been specified." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Methodology references" } ], "type": "h4" }, { "children": [ { "text": "No methodology references available." } ], "type": "p" } ]
Data sources and providers { "readOnly": true, "data": [ { "@id": "09c6b017-a000-4738-b9a1-49c161231a21", "link": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/datahub/datahubitem-view/3b7fe76c-524a-439a-bfd2-a6e4046302a2?activeAccordion=1096150", "organisation": "European Environment Agency (EEA)", "title": "National emissions reported to the UNFCCC and to the EU under the Governance Regulation" }, { "@id": "af8e7cdc-b1d6-4adc-af4d-1c90c3d58e3a", "link": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/datahub//datahubitem-view/f6e68f73-b494-4f8c-8c73-8a153a53f64a", "organisation": "European Environment Agency (EEA)", "title": "Approximated estimates for greenhouse gas emissions" }, { "@id": "e66461fe-4183-4a21-b3e4-ac171f2aaef3", "link": "https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/datahub/datahubitem-view/4b8d94a4-aed7-4e67-a54c-0623a50f48e8?activeAccordion=1097576", "organisation": "European Environment Agency (EEA)", "title": "Member States' greenhouse gas (GHG) emission projections 2025" } ] }
Definition [ { "children": [ { "text": "This indicator shows historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector, as well as emissions projected up to 2035 under scenarios in which policies currently in place (\u2018with existing measures\u2019) and planned (\u2018with additional measures\u2019) in the EU Member States (EU-27) are implemented. The disaggregated level assessment illustrates trends and projections in key transport sub-sectors." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "It covers IPCC source categories 1.A.3, 1.D.1.a and 1.D.1.b (as used in " }, { "children": [ { "text": "GHG emission inventories" } ], "type": "link", "data": { "url": "https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/pdf/1_Volume1/V1_8_Ch8_Reporting_Guidance.pdf" } }, { "text": ")." } ], "type": "p" } ]
Unit of measure [ { "children": [ { "text": "Greenhouse gas emissions are measured in million tonnes of CO" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "sub" }, { "text": "" }, { "children": [ { "text": "2 " } ], "type": "sub" }, { "text": "equivalent (MtCO" }, { "children": [ { "text": "2" } ], "type": "sub" }, { "text": "e);" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Change in emission levels from 1990 (index 1990=100)." } ], "type": "p" } ]
Policy / environmental relevance [ { "children": [ { "text": "Context description" } ], "type": "h4" }, { "children": [ { "text": "The " }, { "children": [ { "text": "European Green Deal" } ], "type": "link", "data": { "url": "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2019%3A640%3AFIN" } }, { "text": " (COM(2019) 640 final)\u00a0sets out the aim to achieve a carbon neutral EU by 2050. This requires the decarbonisation of all sectors. In its proposal for the " }, { "children": [ { "text": "Climate Law" } ], "type": "link", "data": { "url": "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?qid=1588581905912&uri=CELEX:52020PC0080" } }, { "text": " (COM(2020) 80 final), the European Commission proposed to increase the intermediate GHG emission reduction target for 2030 to 55%, accepted by the European Council at the end of 2020." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "In December 2020, the Commission published \u2018" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy" } ], "type": "link", "data": { "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/legislation/com20200789-annex.pdf" } }, { "text": "\u2019 (COM(2020) 789 final), laying out its vision to ensure that the EU transport system can achieve a green transformation." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "The transport sector is responsible for nearly a quarter of Europe\u2019s greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, this sector has proven difficult to decarbonise, and has not shown the same decreases in GHG emissions since 1990 as other sectors. Therefore, it is important to track this sector in detail and project changes in GHG emissions based on the reductions possible with policy measures that have already been adopted or are planned in the EU Member States." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "In the implementation of the 2030 climate and energy framework, commercial aviation (all airlines operating in Europe) is covered by the " }, { "children": [ { "text": "EU Emissions Trading Scheme" } ], "type": "link", "data": { "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en" } }, { "text": ", while the rest of the transport sector (excluding international shipping) is covered by the " }, { "children": [ { "text": "Effort Sharing Regulation" } ], "type": "link", "data": { "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/effort_en" } }, { "text": ". The indicator allows the contributions of the transport sector to meeting targets set out in both these pieces of legislation to be assessed in detail." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Targets" } ], "type": "h4" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Targets not defined for this indicator." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Related policy documents" } ], "type": "h4" }, { "children": [ { "children": [ { "text": "" }, { "children": [ { "text": "2030 Climate and Energy Framework" } ], "type": "link", "data": { "url": "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/24561/145397.pdf" } }, { "text": ". EUCO 169/14 European Council (23 and 24 October 2014) \u2012 Conclusions EUCO 169/14 " } ], "type": "li" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" }, { "children": [ { "text": "European Climate Law proposal" } ], "type": "link", "data": { "url": "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52020PC0080&from=EN" } }, { "text": ". Proposal for a REGULATION OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality and amending Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 (European Climate Law) " } ], "type": "li" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy" } ], "type": "link", "data": { "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/transport/sites/transport/files/legislation/com20200789-annex.pdf" } }, { "text": ". COM(2020) 789 final ANNEX to the COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy \u2013 putting European transport on track for the future {SWD(2020) 331 final} " } ], "type": "li" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" }, { "children": [ { "text": "The European Green Deal" } ], "type": "link", "data": { "url": "https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52019DC0640" } }, { "text": ". Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions (COM(2019) 640 final)" } ], "type": "li" } ], "type": "ul" } ]
Frequency of dissemination 1
Accuracy and uncertainties [ { "children": [ { "text": "Methodology uncertainty" } ], "type": "h4" }, { "children": [ { "text": "No uncertainty has been specified." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Data sets uncertainty" } ], "type": "h4" }, { "children": [ { "text": "No uncertainty has been specified." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Rationale uncertainty" } ], "type": "h4" }, { "children": [ { "text": "No uncertainty has been specified." } ], "type": "p" } ]
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Short name greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-transport
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