Global and European sea level rise

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen about 21cm since 1900, at an accelerating rate. GMSL reached its highest value ever in 2023. GMSL will likely rise by 0.28-0.55m under a very low emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9) and 0.63-1.02m under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) by 2100, relative to the 1995-2014 average. GMSL simulations that include the possibility of fast disintegration of the polar ice sheets project a rise of up to 5m by 2150. Most coastal regions in Europe have experienced an increase in sea level relative to land, except for the northern Baltic Sea coast.

Lead Image No image
Lead Image Caption
Metadata
DPSIR Impact
Typology Efficiency indicator (Type C - Are we improving?)
UN SDGs SDG13: Climate action
Topics Water, Climate change adaptation, Seas and coasts
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null, "tabledata": null, "temporal": [], "title": "Past trend and projected change in relative sea level across Europe", "url": "../../../../resolveuid/1613b87047fc418c8292690039129917", "with_metadata_section": true, "with_notes": false }, "6c52dae5-7d1c-4cae-a488-787b8846c606": { "@type": "slate", "plaintext": "In future, relative sea level change along most of the European coastline is projected to be reasonably similar to the global average. Main exceptions are the northern Baltic Sea and the northern Norwegian coasts, which are experiencing considerable land rise as a consequence of post-glacial rebound and changes in the gravity field of the Greenland ice sheet. As a result, sea level relative to land in these regions will continue to rise more slowly than elsewhere or may even decrease . Further information on past and projected changes sea level rise in Europe is available on the European Climate Data Explorer . A dedicated EU policy sector page on coastal areas is available on Climate-ADAPT.", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "In future, relative sea level change along most of the European coastline is projected to be reasonably similar to the global average. Main exceptions are the northern Baltic Sea and the northern Norwegian coasts, which are experiencing considerable land rise as a consequence of post-glacial rebound and changes in the gravity field of the Greenland ice sheet. As a result, sea level relative to land in these regions will continue to rise more slowly than elsewhere or " }, { "children": [ { "text": "may even decrease" } ], "type": "strong" }, { "text": "" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "data": { "extra": [ { "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., A&#xF0;algeirsd&#xF3;ttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sall&#xE9;e, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A. and Yu, Y., 2021, 'Ocean, cryosphere, and sea level change', in: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., et al. (eds), <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "Fox-Kemper, Baylor, 2021, Ocean, cryosphere, and sea level change", "zoteroId": "6X8IBLZX" } ], "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Slangen, A. B. A., Carson, M., Katsman, C. A., Van De Wal, R. S. W., K&#xF6;hl, A., Vermeersen, L. L. A. and Stammer, D., 2014, 'Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes', <i>Climatic Change</i> 124(1&#x2013;2), pp. 317&#x2013;332 (http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9) accessed November 27, 2023.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "Slangen, A. B. A., 5/2014, Projecting twenty-first century regional, Climatic Change", "uid": "ympx2", "zoteroId": "THQPKRDZ" }, "type": "zotero" }, { "text": ". Further information on past and projected changes sea level rise in Europe is available on the " }, { "children": [ { "text": "European Climate Data Explorer" } ], "data": { "url": "https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/metadata/indicators/relative-sea-level-rise" }, "type": "link" }, { "text": ". A dedicated " }, { "children": [ { "text": "EU policy sector page on coastal areas" } ], "data": { "url": "https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/en/eu-adaptation-policy/sector-policies/coastal-areas" }, "type": "link" }, { "text": " is available on Climate-ADAPT." } ], "styleName": "text-justify", "type": "p" } ] }, "b7bbd81e-2f4b-4cca-a570-22aabeb038c2": { "@type": "slate", "plaintext": "Most European coastal regions experience increases in both absolute sea level (as measured by satellites) and relative sea level (as measured by tide gauges), the latter being more relevant for coastal protection . There are sizeable differences in the rates of sea level change across Europe. Notably, sea levels relative to land along the northern Baltic Sea coast and \u2014 to a lesser degree \u2014 the northern Norwegian coast are sinking. This is due to rising land levels caused by post-glacial rebound since the last ice age.", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "Most European coastal regions experience increases in both absolute sea level (as measured by satellites) and relative sea level (as measured by tide gauges), the latter being more relevant for " }, { "children": [ { "text": "coastal protection" } ], "type": "strong" }, { "text": ". There are sizeable differences in the rates of sea level change across Europe. Notably, sea levels relative to land along the northern Baltic Sea coast and \u2014 to a lesser degree \u2014 the northern Norwegian coast are sinking. This is due to rising land levels caused by post-glacial rebound since the last ice age." } ], "styleName": "text-justify", "type": "p" } ] }, "d3d49723-14e5-4663-b346-37ee3572f28d": { "@type": "slate", "fixed": true, "instructions": { "content-type": "text/html", "data": "<p><br/></p>", "encoding": "utf8" }, "plaintext": "", "readOnlySettings": true, "required": true, "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" } ] }, "23024285-6692-4929-8329-34f555f724f8": { "@type": "group", "className": "figure-metadata", "id": "figure-metadata-02ba4a04-fcfe-4968-806f-1dac3119cfef", "data": { "blocks": { "0f818109-0487-4509-be4b-93168471a3da": { "@type": "slate", "value": [ { "type": "h3-light", "children": [ { "text": "Figure 2. Past trend and projected change in relative sea level across Europe" } ] } ], "plaintext": "Figure 2. Past trend and projected change in relative sea level across Europe" } }, "blocks_layout": { "items": [ "0f818109-0487-4509-be4b-93168471a3da" ] } }, "styles": {} }, "43df8fab-b278-4b0e-a62c-ce6b8e0a881e": { "@type": "dividerBlock", "section": false, "short": true, "disableNewBlocks": true, "fixed": true, "hidden": true, "readOnly": true, "required": true, "spacing": "m", "fitted": false } }, "blocks_layout": { "items": [ "23024285-6692-4929-8329-34f555f724f8", "02ba4a04-fcfe-4968-806f-1dac3119cfef", "43df8fab-b278-4b0e-a62c-ce6b8e0a881e", "b7bbd81e-2f4b-4cca-a570-22aabeb038c2", "6c52dae5-7d1c-4cae-a488-787b8846c606" ] } }, "disableInnerButtons": true, "disableNewBlocks": false, "fixed": true, "ignoreSpaces": true, "instructions": { "content-type": "text/html", "data": "<ol keys=\"9bbul,b1sa2,171og,1c1t5\" depth=\"0\"><li>Depending on the indicator context, this text can provide information at country level or, if this is not relevant, at some other level, e.g. sectoral, regional level.</li><li>This text interprets the data represented in the chart, rather than describing results, i.e. it provides explanations for some of the results.</li><li>The text related to progress at this level does not have to be comprehensive.</li><li>If there is no information that adds value to what is already visible there is no need to have any text.</li></ol>", "encoding": "utf8" }, "maxChars": "1000", "placeholder": "Disaggregate level assessment e.g. country, sectoral, regional level assessment", "readOnly": false, "readOnlySettings": true, "required": true, "title": "Disaggregate level assessment" }, "677f7422-6da4-4c86-bca8-de732b7047b9": { "@type": "dividerBlock", "disableNewBlocks": true, "fixed": true, "hidden": true, "readOnly": true, "required": true, "section": false, "spacing": "m", "styles": {} }, "d9136eb4-9071-4a3c-8d49-5ce359358651": { "@layout": "794c9b24-5cd4-4b9f-a0cd-b796aadc86e8", "@type": "group", "allowedBlocks": [], "as": "section", "block": "d9136eb4-9071-4a3c-8d49-5ce359358651", "data": { "blocks": { "12d8c532-f7ad-43fe-ada7-330b2d7a7a39": { "@type": "slate", "disableNewBlocks": true, "fixed": true, "instructions": { "content-type": "text/html", "data": "<p><br/></p>", "encoding": "utf8" }, "plaintext": "Published: date \u2012 25min read", "readOnly": true, "readOnlySettings": true, "required": true, "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Published: " }, { "children": [ { "text": "date" } ], "data": { "id": "effective", "widget": "datetime" }, "type": "mention" }, { "text": " \u2012 25min read" } ], "type": "sup" }, { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" } ] }, "1c31c956-5086-476a-8694-9936cfa6c240": { "@type": "description", "disableNewBlocks": true, "fixed": true, "instructions": { "content-type": "text/html", "data": "<p>The summary tells the reader about the indicator trend over the examined period and whether or not it helps to achieve the associated policy objective, which can be either quantitative or directional.</p><p>In the absence of a policy objective, it explains whether the trend is in the right or wrong direction in relation to the issue examined.</p><p>If there has been an important change over the most recent period of the time series, e.g. over the last year, this is indicated too.</p><p>Furthermore, if there is a quantitative target, it also indicates whether we are on track to meet it and if not what are the reasons preventing that, e.g. socio-economic drivers, implementation gap etc.</p>", "encoding": "utf8" }, "placeholder": "Summary", "plaintext": "Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen about 21cm since 1900, at an accelerating rate. GMSL reached its highest value ever in 2023. GMSL will likely rise by 0.28-0.55m under a very low emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9) and 0.63-1.02m under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) by 2100, relative to the 1995-2014 average. GMSL simulations that include the possibility of fast disintegration of the polar ice sheets project a rise of up to 5m by 2150. Most coastal regions in Europe have experienced an increase in sea level relative to land, except for the northern Baltic Sea coast.", "readOnlySettings": true, "required": true, "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen about 21cm since 1900, at an accelerating rate. GMSL reached its highest value ever in 2023. GMSL will likely rise by 0.28-0.55m under a very low emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9) and 0.63-1.02m under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) by 2100, relative to the 1995-2014 average. GMSL simulations that include the possibility of fast disintegration of the polar ice sheets project a rise of up to 5m by 2150. Most coastal regions in Europe have experienced an increase in sea level relative to land, except for the northern Baltic Sea coast." } ], "styleName": "text-justify", "type": "p" } ] }, "3cccc2bb-471a-44c7-b006-5595c4713ff2": { "@type": "layoutSettings", "disableNewBlocks": true, "fixed": true, "layout_size": "narrow_view", "readOnly": true, "readOnlySettings": true, "required": true }, "ddde07aa-4e48-4475-94bd-e1a517d26eab": { "copyrightIcon": "ri-copyright-line", "styles": {}, "variation": "default", "@type": "title", "disableNewBlocks": true, "fixed": true, "hideContentType": true, "hideCreationDate": true, "hideDownloadButton": true, "hideModificationDate": true, "placeholder": "Indicator title", "readOnlySettings": true, "required": true } }, "blocks_layout": { "items": [ "ddde07aa-4e48-4475-94bd-e1a517d26eab", "1c31c956-5086-476a-8694-9936cfa6c240", "3cccc2bb-471a-44c7-b006-5595c4713ff2" ] } }, "disableInnerButtons": true, "disableNewBlocks": true, "fixed": true, "fixedLayout": true, "ignoreSpaces": true, "instructions": { "content-type": "text/html", "data": "<p>The summary tells the reader about the indicator trend over the examined period and whether or not it helps to achieve the associated policy objective, which can be either quantitative or directional.</p><p>In the absence of a policy objective, it explains whether the trend is in the right or wrong direction in relation to the issue examined.</p><p>If there has been an important change over the most recent period of the time series, e.g. over the last year, this is indicated too.</p><p>Furthermore, if there is a quantitative target, it also indicates whether we are on track to meet it and if not what are the reasons preventing that, e.g. socio-economic drivers, implementation gap etc.</p>", "encoding": "utf8" }, "maxChars": "500", "readOnlySettings": true, "required": true, "styles": { "style_name": "environment-theme-bg" }, "title": "Content header" }, "e1ba4faf-f0c1-4147-a65a-d77ce5f5d758": { "@layout": "1bc4379d-cddb-4120-84ad-5ab025533b12", "@type": "group", "allowedBlocks": [ "slate" ], "as": "section", "block": "f9da86f5-2e25-4a87-bd63-85e909cc5ca1", "data": { "blocks": { "13b64bfa-206a-4226-bac9-e4643c1e6e97": { "@type": "slate", "plaintext": "Since 1970, anthropogenic forcing has been the predominant cause of this accelerating sea level rise both globally and in European regional seas. Thermal expansion of ocean water was initially the main driver, however melting of glaciers and of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have exceeded the effects of thermal expansion since about 2000 .", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "Since 1970, anthropogenic forcing has been the " }, { "children": [ { "text": "predominant cause" } ], "type": "strong" }, { "text": " of this accelerating sea level rise both globally and in European regional seas. Thermal expansion of ocean water was initially the main driver, however melting of glaciers and of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have exceeded the effects of thermal expansion since about 2000" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "data": { "extra": [ { "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Oppenheimer, M., Glavovic, B., Hinkel, J., van de Wal, R., Magnan, A. K., Abd-Elgawad, A., Cai, R., Cifuentes-Jara, M., DeConto, R. M., Gosh, T., Hay, J., Isla, F., Marzeion, B., Meyssignac, B., Sebesvari, Z. and Sugyiama, T., 2019, 'Chapter 4: Sea level rise and implications for low lying islands, coasts and communities', in: P&#xF6;rtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Masson-Delmotte, V., et al. (eds), <i>IPCC special report on the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate</i>, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "Oppenheimer, Michael, 2019, Chapter 4: Sea level rise and implicatio, Cambridge, UK", "zoteroId": "RMWFBD3E" }, { "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., A&#xF0;algeirsd&#xF3;ttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sall&#xE9;e, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A. and Yu, Y., 2021, 'Ocean, cryosphere, and sea level change', in: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., et al. (eds), <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "Fox-Kemper, Baylor, 2021, Ocean, cryosphere, and sea level change", "zoteroId": "6X8IBLZX" } ], "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group, 2018, 'Global sea-level budget 1993&#x2013;present', <i>Earth System Science Data</i> 10(3), pp. 1551&#x2013;1590 (https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/10/1551/2018/) accessed November 27, 2023.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "WCRP Global Sea Level Budget Group, 2018-08-28, Global sea-level budget 1993\u2013present, Earth System Science Data", "uid": "oEvfG", "zoteroId": "PHMKQJNQ" }, "type": "zotero" }, { "text": "." } ], "styleName": "text-justify", "type": "p" } ] }, "3c1112e1-2df5-4e3e-849b-d503c60e533e": { "@type": "slate", "plaintext": "The NASA Sea Level Projection Tool allows users to visualise and download the sea level projection data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report (AR6) .", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "The " }, { "children": [ { "text": "NASA Sea Level Projection Tool" } ], "data": { "url": "https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projection-tool" }, "type": "link" }, { "text": " allows users to visualise and download the sea level projection data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) " }, { "children": [ { "text": "6th Assessment Report (AR6)" } ], "data": { "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/" }, "type": "link" }, { "text": ". " } ], "styleName": "text-justify", "type": "p" } ] }, "5b6cf729-f10d-429b-9589-f6454afcdf85": { "@type": "slate", "plaintext": "The global mean sea level (GMSL) in 2023 was the highest ever measured by the satellite-based monitoring system. GMSL reconstructions based on tide gauge observations show a rise of 21cm from 1900 to 2020 at an average rate of 1.7mm/year . The rate of GMSL rise accelerated to 3.3mm/year over the period 1993-2018 and 3.7mm/year over the period 2006-2018, more than twice as fast as during the 20 th century .", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "The global mean sea level (GMSL) in 2023 was the highest ever measured by the satellite-based monitoring system. " }, { "children": [ { "text": "GMSL reconstructions" } ], "type": "strong" }, { "text": " based on tide gauge observations show a rise of 21cm from 1900 to 2020 at an average rate of 1.7mm/year" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "data": { "extra": [ { "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Palmer, M. D., Domingues, C. M., Slangen, A. B. A. and Boeira Dias, F., 2021, 'An ensemble approach to quantify global mean sea-level rise over the 20th century from tide gauge reconstructions', <i>Environmental Research Letters</i> 16(4), pp. 044043 (https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec) accessed November 27, 2023.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "Palmer, M D, 2021-04-01, An ensemble approach to quantify global , Environmental Research Letters", "zoteroId": "ETZTGM9F" } ], "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., A&#xF0;algeirsd&#xF3;ttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sall&#xE9;e, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A. and Yu, Y., 2021, 'Ocean, cryosphere, and sea level change', in: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., et al. (eds), <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "Fox-Kemper, Baylor, 2021, Ocean, cryosphere, and sea level change", "uid": "2uriz", "zoteroId": "6X8IBLZX" }, "type": "zotero" }, { "text": ". The rate of GMSL rise accelerated to 3.3mm/year over the period 1993-2018 and 3.7mm/year over the period 2006-2018, more than twice as fast as during the 20" }, { "children": [ { "text": "th" } ], "type": "sup" }, { "text": " century" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "data": { "extra": [ { "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., A&#xF0;algeirsd&#xF3;ttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sall&#xE9;e, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A. and Yu, Y., 2021, 'Ocean, cryosphere, and sea level change', in: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., et al. (eds), <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "Fox-Kemper, Baylor, 2021, Ocean, cryosphere, and sea level change", "zoteroId": "6X8IBLZX" } ], "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Nerem, R. S., Beckley, B. D., Fasullo, J. T., Hamlington, B. D., Masters, D. and Mitchum, G. T., 2018, 'Climate-change&#x2013;driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era', <i>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</i> 115(9), pp. 2022&#x2013;2025 (http://www.pnas.org/lookup/doi/10.1073/pnas.1717312115) accessed November 9, 2018.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "Nerem, R. S., 2018-02-27, Climate-change\u2013driven accelerated sea-le, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences", "uid": "19u67", "zoteroId": "Y9QJIX6S" }, "type": "zotero" }, { "text": "." } ], "styleName": "text-justify", "type": "p" } ] }, "9229466a-c413-412a-bcc2-9c9dcd1dd4c3": { "@type": "slate", "plaintext": "The future behaviour of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is still rather uncertain, particularly under higher emissions scenarios. Studies considering processes that can lead to a faster disintegration of the Antarctic ice sheet, including a potential collapse of marine-based sectors, have estimated a GMSL rise of up to 2.3m by 2100 and up to 5.4m by 2150 . The consideration of such high-end scenarios is important for long-term coastal risk management, in particular in densely populated coastal zones. Each five year delay in the peaking of global greenhouse gas emissions increases the median sea-level rise projections for 2300 by 0.2m and extreme sea-level rise projections (95th percentile) by up to 1m .", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "The future behaviour of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is still rather uncertain, particularly under higher emissions scenarios. Studies considering processes that can lead to a " }, { "children": [ { "text": "faster disintegration" } ], "type": "strong" }, { "text": " of the Antarctic ice sheet, including a potential collapse of marine-based sectors, have estimated a GMSL rise of up to 2.3m by 2100 and up to 5.4m by 2150" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "data": { "extra": [ { "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Kopp, R. E., DeConto, R. M., Bader, D. A., Hay, C. C., Horton, R. M., Kulp, S., Oppenheimer, M., Pollard, D. and Strauss, B. H., 2017, 'Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice&#x2010;Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea&#x2010;Level Projections', <i>Earth&#x2019;s Future</i> 5(12), pp. 1217&#x2013;1233 (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017EF000663) accessed November 27, 2023.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "Kopp, Robert E., 12/2017, Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice\u2010, Earth's Future", "zoteroId": "LE3XAEPU" }, { "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">DeConto, R. M., Pollard, D., Alley, R. B., Velicogna, I., Gasson, E., Gomez, N., Sadai, S., Condron, A., Gilford, D. M., Ashe, E. L., Kopp, R. E., Li, D. and Dutton, A., 2021, 'The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica', <i>Nature</i> 593(7857), pp. 83&#x2013;89 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03427-0) accessed November 30, 2021.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "DeConto, Robert M., 2021-05, The Paris Climate Agreement and future s, Nature", "zoteroId": "HZZR9SBP" }, { "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., A&#xF0;algeirsd&#xF3;ttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sall&#xE9;e, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A. and Yu, Y., 2021, 'Ocean, cryosphere, and sea level change', in: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., et al. (eds), <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "Fox-Kemper, Baylor, 2021, Ocean, cryosphere, and sea level change", "zoteroId": "6X8IBLZX" } ], "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Bakker, A. M. R. et al., 2017, 'Sea-level projections representing the deeply uncertain contribution of the West Antarctic ice sheet', <i>Scientific Reports</i> 7(1), pp. 3880.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "Bakker, A. M. R., et al., 2017, Sea-level projections representing the d, Scientific Reports", "uid": "vCBhu", "zoteroId": "PZ5CWCEM" }, "type": "zotero" }, { "text": ". The consideration of such high-end scenarios is important for long-term coastal risk management, in particular in densely populated coastal zones. Each five year delay in the peaking of global greenhouse gas emissions increases the median sea-level rise projections for 2300 by 0.2m and extreme sea-level rise projections (95th percentile) by up to 1m" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "data": { "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Mengel, M. et al., 2018, 'Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action', <i>Nature Communications</i> 9(1), pp. 601.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "Mengel, M., et al., 2018, Committed sea-level rise under the Paris, Nature Communications", "uid": "zSAxn", "zoteroId": "VH27JF55" }, "type": "zotero" }, { "text": "." } ], "styleName": "text-justify", "type": "p" } ] }, "b0279dde-1ceb-4137-a7f1-5ab7b46a782c": { "@type": "embed_content", "data_provenance": { "data": [ { "@id": "f98d8d59-cbde-431e-8252-4a36283231e7", "link": 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"value": "2148" }, { "label": "2149", "value": "2149" }, { "label": "2150", "value": "2150" } ], "title": "Observed and projected change in global mean sea level", "url": "../../../../resolveuid/cfe4e88205ec45dbba959512d891db61", "with_metadata_section": true, "with_notes": false }, "c4f74575-a7a9-4f87-ab45-e7a20c1de5c1": { "@type": "slate", "plaintext": "Global climate models project that the rise in GMSL during the 21 st century (i.e. by 2100, relative to the period 1995-2014), with 66% confidence, will likely be in the range of 0.28-0.55m for a very low emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9). For an intermediate emissions scenario, 0.44-0.76m (SSP2-4.5) and 0.63-1.02m for a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Model simulations that include the possibility of fast disintegration of the polar ice sheets, which is assessed to have a low likelihood, project a GMSL rise of up to about 5m by 2150 under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) .", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "Global climate models " }, { "children": [ { "text": "project" } ], "type": "strong" }, { "text": " that the rise in GMSL during the 21" }, { "children": [ { "text": "st" } ], "type": "sup" }, { "text": " century (i.e. by 2100, relative to the period 1995-2014), with 66% confidence, will likely be in the range of 0.28-0.55m for a very low emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9). For an intermediate emissions scenario, 0.44-0.76m (SSP2-4.5) and 0.63-1.02m for a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Model simulations that include the possibility of fast disintegration of the polar ice sheets, which is assessed to have a low likelihood, project a GMSL rise of up to about 5m by 2150 under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5)" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "data": { "footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., A&#xF0;algeirsd&#xF3;ttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L., Sall&#xE9;e, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A. and Yu, Y., 2021, 'Ocean, cryosphere, and sea level change', in: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., et al. (eds), <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press.</div>\n</div>\n", "footnoteTitle": "Fox-Kemper, Baylor, 2021, Ocean, cryosphere, and sea level change", "uid": "Iwljz", "zoteroId": "6X8IBLZX" }, "type": "zotero" }, { "text": ".\u00a0" } ], "styleName": "text-justify", "type": "p" } ] }, "deb7e84d-d2c8-4491-90fa-3dc65fe02143": { "@type": "slate", "fixed": true, "instructions": { "content-type": "text/html", "data": "<p><br/></p>", "encoding": "utf8" }, "plaintext": "", "readOnlySettings": true, "required": true, "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" } ] }, "03ceee3d-82ff-4521-a697-240c1c8c927e": { "@type": "group", "className": "figure-metadata", "id": "figure-metadata-b0279dde-1ceb-4137-a7f1-5ab7b46a782c", "data": { "blocks": { "f04d4720-1562-4506-8183-93adda866701": { "@type": "slate", "value": [ { "type": "h3-light", "children": [ { "text": "Figure 1. Observed and projected change in global mean sea level" } ] } ], "plaintext": "Figure 1. Observed and projected change in global mean sea level" } }, "blocks_layout": { "items": [ "f04d4720-1562-4506-8183-93adda866701" ] } }, "styles": {} }, "43df8fab-b278-4b0e-a62c-ce6b8e0a881d": { "@type": "dividerBlock", "section": false, "short": true, "disableNewBlocks": true, "fixed": true, "hidden": true, "readOnly": true, "required": true, "styles": {}, "spacing": "m", "fitted": false } }, "blocks_layout": { "items": [ "03ceee3d-82ff-4521-a697-240c1c8c927e", "b0279dde-1ceb-4137-a7f1-5ab7b46a782c", "43df8fab-b278-4b0e-a62c-ce6b8e0a881d", "5b6cf729-f10d-429b-9589-f6454afcdf85", "13b64bfa-206a-4226-bac9-e4643c1e6e97", "c4f74575-a7a9-4f87-ab45-e7a20c1de5c1", "9229466a-c413-412a-bcc2-9c9dcd1dd4c3", "3c1112e1-2df5-4e3e-849b-d503c60e533e" ] } }, "disableInnerButtons": true, "disableNewBlocks": false, "fixed": true, "ignoreSpaces": true, "instructions": { "content-type": "text/html", "data": "<p><strong>Assessment text remains at</strong> <strong>the relevant</strong> <strong>aggregate level</strong> <strong>(i.e.</strong> <strong>global, EU, sectoral)</strong> <strong>and addresses the following: </strong></p><ol keys=\"dkvn8,e367c,f4lpb,9j981,7ai6k,3g3pd\" depth=\"0\"><li>Explains in one or two sentences on the environmental rationale of the indicator, i.e. why it matters to the environment that we see an increase/decrease in the value measured.</li><li>Explains in one or two sentences the associated policy objective, which can be either quantitative or directional. More information on the policy objective and related references will be included in the supporting information section. Where there is no policy objective associated with the indicator, i.e. where the indicator addresses an issue that is important for future policy formulation, this text should explain instead why this issue is important.</li><li>IF NECESSARY - Explains any mismatch between what the indicator tracks and what the policy objective/issue is.</li><li>Qualifies the historical trend (e.g. steady increase) and explains the key reasons (e.g. policies) behind it. If there is a quantitative target it explains if we are on track to meet it.</li><li>IF NECESSARY - Explains any recent changes to the trend and why.</li><li>IF NECESSARY - Describes what needs to happen to see adequate progress in future, for instance in order to remain on track to meet targets.</li></ol><p><strong>Please cite your work if</strong> <strong>necessary</strong> <strong>using the EEA citation style (i.e.</strong> <strong>EEA, 2020). A full reference list appears in the supporting information section.</strong></p>", "encoding": "utf8" }, "maxChars": "2000", "placeholder": "Aggregate level assessment e.g. progress at global, EU level..", "readOnlySettings": true, "required": true, "title": "Aggregate level assessment" }, "e9736b7c-4902-48aa-aecd-b706409a576d": { "@type": "dividerBlock", "disableNewBlocks": true, "fixed": true, "hidden": true, "readOnly": true, "required": true, "section": false, "spacing": "m", "styles": {} } }
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Supporting information
Methodology [ { "children": [ { "text": "Methodology for indicator calculation" } ], "type": "h4" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Sea level changes can be measured using tide gauges and remotely from space using satellite altimeters. Many tide gauge measurements have long multi-decadal time series, with some exceeding 100\u00a0years. However, the data can be distorted by various regional and local effects, such as vertical land motion processes. Furthermore, there are significant gaps in the spatial coverage of tide gauges with long time series, including in Europe." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Satellite altimeters enable absolute sea level to be measured from space and provide much better spatial coverage (except at high latitudes); however, their record is limited to about 30 years. The global and European sea level trends are calculated from a combination of nine partly overlapping satellite missions. The data are corrected for seasonal variations, the inverse barometer effects and post-glacial rebound." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Sea level projections are based on process-based models, which are rooted in state-of-the-art climate model simulations. Projections for relative mean sea level in Europe consider the gravitational and solid Earth response and land movement due to glacial isostatic adjustment, but not land subsidence as a result of human activities." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Model-based projections for changes in regional sea level rise included only grid cells that are covered at least half by sea. Data for other grid cells partly covered by land and by sea were extrapolated using the nearest-neighbour method." } ], "type": "p" } ]
Data sources and providers { "readOnly": true, "data": [ { "@id": "1064ca4d-bdfb-4984-a958-ee8641a5a297", "link": "https://psmsl.org/data/obtaining/", "organisation": "Permanent Service for Sea Level (PSMSL)", "title": "Tide Gauge Data (1970 - 2022)" }, { "@id": "97184cfc-f891-44bb-b0ba-4ef66a74f2b9", "link": "https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/regional-information#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", "organisation": "Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC AR6 WG1)", "title": "IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections" }, { "@id": "f98d8d59-cbde-431e-8252-4a36283231e7", "link": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec#erlabdaecs2", "organisation": "Palmer et al., 2021", "title": "An ensemble approach to quantify global mean sea-level rise over the 20th century from tide gauge reconstructions (data provided in Supplementary data with the publication)" }, { "@id": "28157548-4591-40b8-9d0b-172f2b115e75", "link": "https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/product/OMI_CLIMATE_SL_GLOBAL_area_averaged_anomalies/services", "organisation": "Copernicus Marine Service (CMS)", "title": "Global Ocean Mean Sea Level time series and trend from Observations Reprocessing (OMI_CLIMATE_SL_GLOBAL_area_averaged_anomalies)" }, { "@id": "cc491544-6669-4ee3-88d0-d07894b5bbe9", "link": "https://github.com/podaac/ipcc-ar6/blob/master/Data/ipcc_ar6_sea_level_projection_psmsl_id_24.xlsx", "organisation": "IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Rise Projections", "title": "IPCC AR6 Sea-Level Rise Projections" } ] }
Definition [ { "children": [ { "text": "This indicator comprises several metrics to describe past and future sea level rise globally and along European coastlines:" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "children": [ { "text": "observed change in global mean sea level, based on reconstructions from tide gauge measurements (since 1900) and on satellite altimeter data (since 1993);" } ], "type": "li" }, { "children": [ { "text": "projected change in global sea level for five different forcing scenarios and spatial trends in relative sea level along the European coastline, based on tide gauge stations with long time series (since 1970)." } ], "type": "li" } ], "type": "ul" } ]
Unit of measure [ { "children": [ { "text": "FIG1: mm (observed changes) and m (projected changes)" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "FIG2: mm/year (trends) and m (projected change)" } ], "type": "p" } ]
Policy / environmental relevance [ { "children": [ { "text": "" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Justification for indicator selection" } ], "type": "strong" }, { "text": "\nNo rationale for indicator selection have been specified." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Context description" } ], "type": "h4" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Sea level is an important indicator of climate change because it can have significant impacts on settlements, infrastructure, people and natural systems. The potential impacts include flooding, coastal erosion and the submergence of flat regions along continental coastlines and on islands. Rising sea levels can also cause saltwater intrusion into low-lying aquifers, thus threatening water supplies and endangering coastal ecosystems and wetlands." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Changes in global mean sea level result from a combination of several physical processes. Thermal expansion of the oceans occurs as a result of warming ocean water. Additional water is added to the ocean from a net melting of glaciers and small ice caps, and from the disintegration of the large Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets." } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "" } ], "type": "p" }, { "children": [ { "text": "The locally experienced changes in sea level differ from global average changes for various reasons, including changes in large-scale ocean circulation, changes in the gravity field, and vertical land movement due to the ongoing effects of post-glacial rebound, local groundwater extraction or other processes." } ], "type": "p" } ]
Frequency of dissemination 1
Accuracy and uncertainties [ { "children": [ { "text": "No uncertainties have been specified." } ], "type": "p" } ]
Settings
Short name global-and-european-sea-level-rise
Versioning enabled yes
Contents
Observed and projected change in global mean sea level

The left chart depicts the rise in global mean sea level from 1900 to 2023 based on two data sources. All values are relative to the average level of the period 1993-2010, during which the two datasets overlap. The green line (Palmer et al., 2021) shows the ensemble sea-level reconstruction (using five members) of sea level anomalies during 1900-2010 (Palmer et al., 2021; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdaec#erlabdaecs2). The orange line (CMEMS) shows the filtered sea level anomalies corrected for the TOPEX-A instrumental drift (Ablain et al., 2017; WCRP Sea Level Budget Group, 2018), corrected for the GIA using the ICE5G-VM2 GIA model (Peltier, 2004), for the time series from 1993 to 2023. The right chart shows global mean sea level projections under different SSP scenarios. Sea level projections considering only processes for which projections can be made with at least medium confidence are provided, relative to the period 1995–2014, for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The scenarios are described in sections TS1.3 and 1.6 and Cross-Chapter Box 1.4 of the Working Group 1 contribution.Sea level projections considering only processes for which projections can be made with at least medium confidence are provided, relative to the period 1995–2014, for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The scenarios are described in sections TS1.3 and 1.6 and Cross-Chapter Box 1.4 of the Working Group 1 contribution.