Metadata
DPSIR
State
Typology
Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
UN SDGs
SDG13: Climate action
Topics
Climate change mitigation
Temporal coverage
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Supporting information
Methodology
[
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"children": [
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"text": "Methodology for indicator calculation"
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"children": [
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"text": ""
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"type": "p"
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{
"children": [
{
"text": "The trend is based on combining data for numerous gases that affect the radiation balance on earth:"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Greenhouse gases included in the Kyoto Climate Protocol: carbon dioxide (CO"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "), methane (CH"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "4"
}
],
"type": "sub"
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{
"text": "), nitrous oxide (N"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "O), and three groups of fluorinated gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "6"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ")"
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],
"type": "li"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Gases under the Montreal Protocol on \u2018Substances that deplete the ozone layer\u2019 CFCs, HCFCs, CH"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "3"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "Cl\u2019s, CH"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "3"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "Br\u2019s and halons"
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],
"type": "li"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Other forcing agents and greenhouse gases that are not included in global treaties are dealt with at a regional level (e.g. UNECE Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution). This includes aerosols (sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, nitrate, mineral dust, land-use related), tropospheric and stratospheric ozone (O"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "3"
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],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "), stratospheric water vapour and aircraft contrails. Both the direct forcing effect of these agents and the indirect effect through aerosol-cloud interaction are included."
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],
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{
"children": [
{
"text": "The trends in global average concentration levels of atmospheric CO"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " for the period from 1950 are based on data available from the "
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "NOAA observatory"
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],
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"url": "https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_annmean_gl.txt"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"text": ", while more historic data are derived from "
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Etheridge et al"
}
],
"data": {
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Etheridge, D. M. et al., 1998, 'Atmospheric methane between 1000 A.D. and present: evidence of anthropogenic emissions and climatic variability', <i>Journal of Geophysical Research</i> 103, pp. 15979–15993 (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98JD00923) accessed October 7, 2021.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "Etheridge, D. M., et al., 01 July 1998, Atmospheric methane between 1000 A.D. an, Journal of Geophysical Research",
"uid": "WPjyf",
"zoteroId": "8MR7QFD9"
},
"type": "zotero"
},
{
"text": ". Trend data for CH"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "4"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ", N"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "O, the fluorinated gases and other compounds under the Montreal Protocol were derived from station data that are available in the AGAGE"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"data": {
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">AGAGE, 2021, 'AGAGE Data & Figures | Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment', (https://agage.mit.edu/data/agage-data) accessed January 6, 2022.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "AGAGE, 2021, AGAGE Data & Figures | Advanced Global A",
"uid": "K1Eud",
"zoteroId": "RUVVIPQV"
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"type": "zotero"
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"text": " data set. The global figures were derived by averaging the data from different observatory stations across the world, equally distributed over the northern and southern hemisphere. Pre-observational data for CO"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ", CH"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "4"
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"type": "sub"
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{
"text": " and N"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
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{
"text": "O are based on ice core data"
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{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
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],
"data": {
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Etheridge, D. M. et al., 1998, 'Atmospheric methane between 1000 A.D. and present: evidence of anthropogenic emissions and climatic variability', <i>Journal of Geophysical Research</i> 103, pp. 15979–15993 (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98JD00923) accessed October 7, 2021.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "Etheridge, D. M., et al., 01 July 1998, Atmospheric methane between 1000 A.D. an, Journal of Geophysical Research",
"uid": "1O1XU",
"zoteroId": "8MR7QFD9"
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"type": "zotero"
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{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
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"text": " "
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"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Etheridge, D. M. et al., 2002, 'Historical CH4 records since about 1000 A.D. from ice core data', in: <i>In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change</i>, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "Etheridge, D. M., et al., September 2002, Historical CH4 records since about 1000 , Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A",
"uid": "iJfV4",
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{
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Meinshausen, M. et al., 2017, 'Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)', <i>Geoscientific Model Development</i> 10, pp. 2057–2116 (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317806517_Historical_greenhouse_gas_concentrations_for_climate_modelling_CMIP6) accessed October 7, 2021.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "Meinshausen, M., et al., May 2017, Historical greenhouse gas concentrations, Geoscientific Model Development",
"zoteroId": "QYX44GK8"
},
{
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">IPCC, 2021, <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": " 2021, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Scienc",
"zoteroId": "4DTQ9X9S"
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],
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Machida, T. et al., 1995, 'Increase in the atmospheric nitrous oxide concentration during the last 250 years', <i>Geophysical Research Letters</i> 22, pp. 2921–2924 (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/95GL02822) accessed October 7, 2021.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "Machida, T., et al., 01 November 1995, Increase in the atmospheric nitrous oxid, Geophysical Research Letters",
"uid": "juZxP",
"zoteroId": "CK6WRAIP"
},
"type": "zotero"
},
{
"text": ". Pre-observational data for F-gases are the result of modeling"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"data": {
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Meinshausen, M. et al., 2017, 'Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)', <i>Geoscientific Model Development</i> 10, pp. 2057–2116 (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317806517_Historical_greenhouse_gas_concentrations_for_climate_modelling_CMIP6) accessed October 7, 2021.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "Meinshausen, M., et al., May 2017, Historical greenhouse gas concentrations, Geoscientific Model Development",
"uid": "UmOpu",
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"text": ". Data for the non-protocol agents are taken from "
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"text": "IPCC "
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],
"data": {
"url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/"
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{
"text": "and "
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"children": [
{
"text": "Myhre et al"
}
],
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"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Myhre, G., Aas, W., Cherian, R., Collins, W., Faluvegi, G., Flanner, M., Forster, P., Hodnebrog, Ø., Klimont, Z., Lund, M. T., Mülmenstädt, J., Lund Myhre, C., Olivié, D., Prather, M., Quaas, J., Samset, B. H., Schnell, J. L., Schulz, M., Shindell, D. et al., 2017, 'Multi-model simulations of aerosol and ozone radiative forcing due to anthropogenic emission changes during the period 1990&ndash;2015', <i>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics</i> 17(4), pp. 2709–2720 (https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/17/2709/2017/) accessed December 16, 2021.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "Myhre, Gunnar, 2017/02/22, Multi-model simulations of aerosol and o, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics",
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"text": "."
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"children": [
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"text": ""
}
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{
"children": [
{
"text": "Radiative forcings are calculated using an approximate equation according to "
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "IPCC (2021)"
}
],
"data": {
"url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/"
},
"type": "link"
},
{
"text": ", based on the observed atmospheric concentrations and using radiative efficiencies for CO"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
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{
"text": ", CH"
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{
"children": [
{
"text": "4"
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"type": "sub"
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"text": ", and N"
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{
"children": [
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"text": "2"
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"text": "O, O"
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"children": [
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"text": "3 "
}
],
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"text": "(both stratospheric and tropospheric) and vapour based on "
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"children": [
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"text": "IPCC (2021)"
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"type": "link"
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"text": ". "
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"children": [
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"text": "IPCC (2021)"
}
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"url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/"
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"type": "link"
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"text": " and "
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"children": [
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"text": "Myhre et al"
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"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Myhre, G., Aas, W., Cherian, R., Collins, W., Faluvegi, G., Flanner, M., Forster, P., Hodnebrog, Ø., Klimont, Z., Lund, M. T., Mülmenstädt, J., Lund Myhre, C., Olivié, D., Prather, M., Quaas, J., Samset, B. H., Schnell, J. L., Schulz, M., Shindell, D. et al., 2017, 'Multi-model simulations of aerosol and ozone radiative forcing due to anthropogenic emission changes during the period 1990&ndash;2015', <i>Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics</i> 17(4), pp. 2709–2720 (https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/17/2709/2017/) accessed December 16, 2021.</div>\n</div>\n",
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"text": " estimates were used for the radiative forcing of non-protocol related compounds. "
},
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"type": "link",
"data": {
"url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/"
},
"children": [
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"text": "IPCC (2021)"
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"text": " is also used to estimate the forcing of these compounds in more recent years, based on model projection. "
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{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
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{
"children": [
{
"text": "The equations used to compute contributions by the individual gases are presented below:"
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"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
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"children": [
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"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Trace gas"
}
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"type": "b"
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"text": ""
}
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"children": [
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"text": ""
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"children": [
{
"text": "Parameterisation, radiative forcing (RF), in Wm"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-2"
}
],
"type": "sup"
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{
"text": ""
}
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"text": ""
}
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"text": ""
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"children": [
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"text": "(see also IPCC, 2021)"
}
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"text": ""
}
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"type": "td"
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"children": [
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"children": [
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"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Constants"
}
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{
"text": ""
}
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"children": [
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"text": ""
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"children": [
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"text": "(IPCC, 2021)"
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"text": ""
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"children": [
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"text": "CO"
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"children": [
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"text": "2"
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"type": "sub"
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{
"text": ""
}
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"type": "p"
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"children": [
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"children": [
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"text": "change in\u00a0RF = (alphaCO"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
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"text": "+alphaN"
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"children": [
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"text": "2"
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"text": "O) ln (C/C"
},
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"children": [
{
"text": "0"
}
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"type": "sub"
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"text": ")"
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"children": [
{
"text": "where"
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"children": [
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"text": "alphaCO"
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{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
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"type": "sub"
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{
"text": " = d"
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{
"children": [
{
"text": "1"
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"type": "sub"
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{
"text": "+a"
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{
"children": [
{
"text": "1"
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{
"text": "(C-C"
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"children": [
{
"text": "0"
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"type": "sub"
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"text": ")2 + b1(C- C"
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"children": [
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"text": "0"
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"type": "sub"
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{
"text": ")"
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"children": [
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"text": "alphaN"
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{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
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"type": "sub"
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{
"text": "O = c"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "1"
}
],
"type": "sub"
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{
"text": " (sq. root of\u00a0 N)"
}
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"children": [
{
"text": "C and C"
},
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"children": [
{
"text": "0"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " are the current and pre-industrial concentrations (ppm) of CO"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
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"type": "sub"
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"text": ", respectively, N is the current N2O concentration (ppb)"
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"type": "p"
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"type": "td"
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{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "\ud835\udc4e1 = \u22122.4785 \u00d7 10\u22127 W m\u20132 ppm\u20132"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "\ud835\udc4f1 = 7.5906 \u00d7 10\u22124 W m\u20132 ppm\u20131"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "\ud835\udc511 = 5.2488 W m\u20132"
}
],
"type": "p"
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{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "\ud835\udc501 = \u22122.1492 \u00d7 10\u22123 W m\u20132 ppb\u20131/2"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
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"children": [
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"children": [
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"children": [
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"text": "CH"
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{
"children": [
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"text": "4"
}
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"type": "sub"
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{
"text": ""
}
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"children": [
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"children": [
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"text": "change in RF = (a"
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{
"children": [
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"text": "3"
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"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " (sq.root of M) + b"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "3"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " (sq.root of N)+d"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "3"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ") . ((sq. root of M) \u2013\u00a0(sq. root of M"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "))"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "M and M"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " are the current and pre-industrial concentrations (ppb) of CH"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "4"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ", respectively; N is are the current concentration (ppb) of N"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "O."
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "\ud835\udc4e3 = \u22128.9603 \u00d7 10\u22125 W m\u20132 ppb\u20131"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "\ud835\udc4f3 = \u22121.2462 \u00d7 10\u22124 W m\u20132 ppb\u20131"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "\ud835\udc513 = 0.045194 W m\u20132 ppb\u20131/2"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "\ud835\udc400 = 731.41 ppb"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "N"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "O"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "change in RF = (a"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " (sq.root of C) + b"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " (sq.root of M) + c"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " (sq.root of M) + d"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ") (sq. root of N -\u00a0sq. root of N"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "\u00a0)\u00a0"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "C is the current concentration (ppm) of CO"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ", M and M"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " are the current and pre-industrial concentrations (ppb) of CH4, respectively; N and N"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " are the current and pre-industrial concentrations (ppb) of N"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "O, respectively."
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "\ud835\udc4e2 = \u22123.4197 \u00d7 10\u22124 W m\u20132 ppm\u20131"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "\ud835\udc4f2 = 2.5455 \u00d7 10\u22124 W m\u20132 ppb\u20131"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "\ud835\udc502 = \u22122.4357 \u00d7 10\u22124 W m\u20132 ppb\u20131"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "\ud835\udc512 = 0.12173 W m-2 ppb\u20131/2"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "\ud835\udc410 = 273.87 ppb"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HFC, PFC & SF"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "6"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "change in F = alpha (X-X"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ")"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "\u00a0X and X"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " are the current and pre-industrial concentrations (ppb) of gas X, respectively."
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Values for alpha\u00a0depending on molecule (see below),."
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
}
],
"type": "tbody"
}
],
"type": "table"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "A similar approach was applied for the Montreal Protocol gases (i.e. CFCs & HCFCs):"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CFCs & HCFCs"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "change in F = alpha (X-X"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ") \u00a0X and X"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " are the current and pre-industrial concentrations (ppb) of gas X, respectively."
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Values for alpha\u00a0depending on molecule (see below), taken from "
},
{
"type": "link",
"data": {
"url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/"
},
"children": [
{
"text": "IPCC, 2021"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "."
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
]
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
}
],
"type": "tbody"
}
],
"type": "table"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Table A1 "
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Overview of alpha values used for Kyoto and Montreal Protocol Gases (see"
},
{
"type": "link",
"data": {
"url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/"
},
"children": [
{
"text": " IPCC,2021"
}
]
},
{
"text": ")"
}
],
"type": "b"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "h4"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "b"
},
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "h4"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Kyoto Protocol gases"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Montreal Protocol gases "
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HFC-23"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.191"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CFC-11"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.259"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HFC-134a "
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.167"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CFC-12"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.32"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HFC-32"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.111"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CFC-13"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.278"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HFC-125"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.234"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CFC-113"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.301"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HFC-143a"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.168"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CFC-114"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.314"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HFC152a"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.102"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CFC-115"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.246"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HFC-227ea"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.273"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HCFC-22"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.214"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HFC-136fa"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.251"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HCFC-124"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.207"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HFC-245fa"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.251"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HCFC-141"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.161"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HFC365mf"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.228"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HCFC-142"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.193"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CF4 "
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.099"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CCl4"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.166"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "C"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "F"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "6"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.261"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CH3Cl"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.005"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "SF6 "
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.567"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CHCl3"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.074"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "SF5CF3"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.585"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CHCCl3"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.065"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "NF3"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.204"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CH"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "3"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "Br"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.004"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "PCF-318"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.314"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "H1211"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.3"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "PCF-218"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.314"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "H1301"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.299"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "H2402"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.312"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
}
],
"type": "tbody"
}
],
"type": "table"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "To quantify the total concentration of all greenhouse gases, the direct and indirect effect of multiple aerosols (sulphate, black carbon, organic carbon, nitrate, and mineral dust), and the forcing of tropospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapour, changes in albedo (e.g. due to black carbon) were added. Data on forcing have been based on IPCC,2021"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"data": {
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">IPCC, 2021, <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "IPCC, 2021, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Scienc",
"uid": "IdwGi",
"zoteroId": "4DTQ9X9S"
},
"type": "zotero"
},
{
"text": ".\u00a0"
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Also new data and information has been used to compute the forcing of aerosols and other agents (based on figures in the "
},
{
"type": "link",
"data": {
"url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/"
},
"children": [
{
"text": "2021 IPCC"
}
]
},
{
"text": " report and underlying literature like "
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Meinshausen et al., 2020"
}
],
"data": {
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">Meinshausen, M., Nicholls, Z. R. J., Lewis, J., Gidden, M. J., Vogel, E., Freund, M., Beyerle, U., Gessner, C., Nauels, A., Bauer, N., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., John, A., Krummel, P. B., Luderer, G., Meinshausen, N., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Reimann, S. et al., 2020, 'The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500', <i>Geoscientific Model Development</i> 13(8), pp. 3571–3605 (https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/3571/2020/) accessed December 9, 2022.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "Meinshausen, Malte, 2020, The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) , Geoscientific Model Development",
"uid": "BOtvJ",
"zoteroId": "6857TE9W"
},
"type": "zotero"
},
{
"text": ") (see Table A2). Firstly, the direct radiative (RFari) and indirect forcing of aerosols thought the cloud interaction (RFaci) and tropospheric ozone forcing has been derived from 1850 to 2019 (see Annex III, "
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "IPCC 2021"
}
],
"data": {
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">IPCC, 2021, <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "IPCC, 2021, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Scienc",
"uid": "Uscbw",
"zoteroId": "4DTQ9X9S"
},
"type": "zotero"
},
{
"text": "). Then we summed the forcing of remaining gasses (e.g. stratospheric water vapour, aircraft contrails) and processes (esp. land use) to define the total of non-protocol gasses. Note that this forcing is stronger (more negative) than reported in earlier literature (e.g. "
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "IPCC, 2013"
}
],
"data": {
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">IPCC, 2013, <i>Climate change 2013 — the physical science basis: contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "IPCC, 2013, Climate change 2013 \u2014 the physical scien, Cambridge",
"uid": "2Il-t",
"zoteroId": "XPQP9ST4"
},
"type": "zotero"
},
{
"text": ") mainly due to the stronger signal of the indirect cloud effect. "
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Table A2 "
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Calculated direct radiative forcing for multiple aerosols and tropospheric ozone for a number of past years (W/m"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sup"
},
{
"text": ")"
}
],
"type": "b"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "h4"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Gas (group)"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2022"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "del"
},
{
"text": "2020"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2010"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "1990"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "1950"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "1900"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "1850"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Direct aerosol-radiation"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.20"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.22"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.27"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.38"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.15"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.06"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.01"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Indirect aerosol-cloud interaction"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.81"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0."
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "del"
},
{
"text": "83"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.99"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-1.05"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.55"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.29"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.07"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Indirect Black carbon on snow"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.08"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.08"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": " 0.08"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": " 0.07"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": " 0.03"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": " 0.02"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": " 0.01"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Ozone"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.47"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.47"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": " 0.44"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": " 0.36"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": " 0.17"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": " 0.08"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": " 0.03"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Others"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.09"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.09"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.11"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.12"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.12"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.07"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.03"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Total"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.54"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0."
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "del"
},
{
"text": "58"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.85"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-1.12"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.62"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.32"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.07"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
}
],
"type": "tbody"
}
],
"type": "table"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Source: Based on IPCC, 2021 Annex III"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
}
],
"type": "tbody"
}
],
"type": "table"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Methodology for gap filling"
}
],
"type": "h4"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "If measurement data from a particular station are missing for a certain year, the global trend is derived from data available from other stations."
}
],
"type": "p"
}
]
Data sources and providers
{
"readOnly": true,
"data": [
{
"@id": "3ae7cac3-51b0-416b-b676-b8b7ab1a9d82",
"organisation": " Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)",
"title": "Peak and 2100 concentration levels of total greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere (dataset URL not available)"
},
{
"@id": "12c899a9-6a44-4aed-810b-fa3ece946897",
"link": "https://gml.noaa.gov/data/data.php?category=Greenhouse%2BGases",
"organisation": "Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)",
"title": "Greenhouse Gases (NOAA)"
},
{
"@id": "08d8da66-cf61-447a-a914-6d4125871d43",
"link": "https://agage.mit.edu/data/agage-data",
"organisation": "Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE)",
"title": "AGAGE Data & Figures"
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]
}
Definition
[
{
"children": [
{
"text": "The indicator shows the observed trends in greenhouse gas concentration levels. Greenhouse gases differ in the way they affect the climate system. In order to sum the effects of the individual greenhouse gases and other forcing agents in the atmosphere, the so-called \u2018greenhouse gas equivalent concentration\u2019 has been defined. This is the concentration of CO"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " that\u00a0would cause the same amount of radiative forcing as a mixture of CO"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "\u00a0and\u00a0other forcing agents (greenhouse gases and aerosols)."
}
],
"type": "p"
}
]
Unit of measure
[
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Atmospheric concentration in parts per million in CO"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": " equivalent (ppm CO"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "e)"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
]
Policy / environmental relevance
[
{
"children": [
{
"text": "The overall objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is \u2018to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system\u2019"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"data": {
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">UNFCCC, 1992, 'What is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change? | UNFCCC', (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-convention/what-is-the-united-nations-framework-convention-on-climate-change) accessed December 16, 2021.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "UNFCCC, 1992, What is the United Nations Framework Con",
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{
"text": ". Both at the global level"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"data": {
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">UNFCCC, 2009, 'Report of the Conference of the Parties on its fifteenth session, held in Copenhagen from 7 to 19 December 2009. Addendum. Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its fifteenth session. | UNFCCC', (https://unfccc.int/documents/6103) accessed December 16, 2021.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "UNFCCC, 2009, Report of the Conference of the Parties ",
"uid": "a2S8q",
"zoteroId": "KRYTRZQW"
},
"type": "zotero"
},
{
"text": " and the EU level (October 2008 Environment Council conclusions), this \u2018dangerous anthropogenic interference\u2019 has been recognised by formulating an ambition of keeping the long-term global average temperature rise below 2\u00b0C, compared to pre-industrial levels. In December 2015, the Paris Agreement strengthened this by stating its objective as \u2018holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels\u2019"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"data": {
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">UNFCCC, 2015, 'The Paris Agreement', <i>United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</i> (http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php) accessed March 6, 2018.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "UNFCCC, 2015, The Paris Agreement",
"uid": "NyA-O",
"zoteroId": "GYV8FNI5"
},
"type": "zotero"
},
{
"text": ". The agreements made at the COP in Glasgow (2021), Sharm el-Sheikh (2022) and Dubai (2023) even stated to \u201cdrive efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5\u00b0C\"."
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Targets"
}
],
"type": "h4"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "No targets have been specified"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
]
Frequency of dissemination
1
Accuracy and uncertainties
[
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Methodology uncertainty"
}
],
"type": "h4"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Global average concentrations since approximately 1980, are determined by averaging measurements from several ground-station networks (SIO, NOAA/CMDL, ALE/GAGE/AGAGE), with each network consisting of several stations distributed across the globe."
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Absolute accuracies of global average annual concentrations are around 1% for CO"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ", CH"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "4"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ", N"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "O and CFCs; for HFCs, PFCs, and SF6, absolute accuracies are between 10% and 20%. The largest uncertainties have been determined for the concentration of different aerosols such as sulphur, and black and organic carbon. The uncertainty in the trend of these aerosols could be 50-60%"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"data": {
"extra": [
{
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">IPCC, 2021, <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press.</div>\n</div>\n",
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}
],
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">IPCC, 2013, <i>Climate change 2013 — the physical science basis: contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "IPCC, 2013, Climate change 2013 \u2014 the physical scien, Cambridge",
"uid": "dKLHS",
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"type": "zotero"
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{
"text": "."
}
],
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},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Radiative forcing is calculated using parameterisations that relate the measured concentrations of greenhouse gases to radiative forcing. The overall uncertainty in radiative forcing calculations is shown in the tables below (given in 10% and 90% confidence ranges), based on ranges in "
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "IPCC, 2021"
}
],
"data": {
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">IPCC, 2021, <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "IPCC, 2021, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Scienc",
"uid": "n9Ubg",
"zoteroId": "4DTQ9X9S"
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"type": "zotero"
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{
"text": "."
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Table A3: "
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Best estimate ERF values from average 1750-1850 to 2022(and 5% and 95% confidence ranges)"
}
],
"type": "b"
},
{
"text": "(source for uncertainty ranges: IPCC, 2021, annex III.3) (in W/m"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sup"
},
{
"text": ")"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "b"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "h4"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Group"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Forcers"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Best estimate"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "5%"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "95%"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Kyoto Protocol"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CO"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2.17"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "1.91"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2.42"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "CH"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "4"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.65"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.52"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.78"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "N"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "O"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.21"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.18"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.24"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "HFC, PFCs, SF"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "6"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.07"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.05"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.08"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Montreal Protocol"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Montreal F gases"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.32"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.26"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.39"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Non-Protocol"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Tropospheric O"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "3"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.47"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.24"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.71"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Aerosols direct radiation effect"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.20"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.43"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.04"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Aerosols indirect cloud interaction"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.81"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-1.39"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.24"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Stratospheric Vapour"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.05"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.00"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.10"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Land use"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.20"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.30"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "-0.10"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "BC on snow"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.08"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.00"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.18"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Air contrails"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.06"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.02"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "0.10"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Total"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2.87"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2.07"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": "3.67"
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
}
],
"type": "tbody"
}
],
"type": "table"
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{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"type": "zotero",
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"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">IPCC, 2021, <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press.</div>\n</div>\n",
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},
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"text": "(source: IPCC, 20"
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],
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{
"text": "21"
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"text": ""
},
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"children": [
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"text": ")"
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"text": ""
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],
"type": "h4"
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"children": [
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"text": ""
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"text": "Data sets uncertainty"
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],
"type": "h4"
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"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Uncertainty in relation to peak concentration values"
}
],
"type": "b"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "The IPCC"
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"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"data": {
"extra": [],
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">IPCC, 2018, <i>Global warming of 1.5 °C</i>, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "IPCC, 2018, Global warming of 1.5\u00a0\u00b0C, Geneva",
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},
{
"text": " has modelled concentration levels of all greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which are consistent with keeping the global average temperature increase below 1.5 and 2\u00b0C, for various probability levels (67%, 50% and 37% staying below). This indicator assessment uses those\u00a0"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "peak concentrations"
}
],
"type": "b"
},
{
"text": "\u00a0and\u00a0"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2100 concentration"
}
],
"type": "b"
},
{
"text": "\u00a0values of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that, according to the "
},
{
"type": "zotero",
"data": {
"uid": "pdhoe",
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">IPCC, 2018, <i>Global warming of 1.5 °C</i>, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.</div>\n</div>\n",
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"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">IPCC, 2021, <i>Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i>, Cambridge University Press.</div>\n</div>\n",
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},
"children": [
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"text": "IPCC (2018,2021)"
}
]
},
{
"text": ", give a likely (67%) probability of staying below a 1.5\u00b0C and a 2\u00b0C temperature increase by the end of the century. This means that the concentration could peak somewhere between 2020 and 2100, and then become (strongly) reduced again (e.g. through zero emissions and even negative emissions though active CO"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": "\u00a0removal). The IPCC"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"data": {
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">IPCC, 2018, <i>Global warming of 1.5 °C</i>, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "IPCC, 2018, Global warming of 1.5\u00a0\u00b0C, Geneva",
"uid": "tPl8t",
"zoteroId": "U2UPRVXI"
},
"type": "zotero"
},
{
"text": "also introduced the\u00a0"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "temperature overshoot\u00a0"
}
],
"type": "b"
},
{
"text": "feature, which means that temperature targets may become temporarily exceeded, followed by a stronger decrease later in the century. Risking such a temperature overshoot would put an additional burden on strong reduction on GHGs emissions and even towards negative emissions reductions. These values and other probability values are presented below to indicate the uncertainty and variation in peak and 2100 concentration values."
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Peak and 2100 concentration levels of total greenhouse gases in the atmosphere consistent with keeping the global average temperature increase below 1.5\u00b0C and 2\u00b0C, for various probability levels. The ranges are given in brackets (all based on IPCC)"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"data": {
"extra": [],
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">IPCC, 2014, 'AR5 Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change — IPCC', (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/) accessed December 16, 2021.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "IPCC, 2014, AR5 Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of C",
"uid": "Jg1i8",
"zoteroId": "2FZVDUR2"
},
"type": "zotero"
},
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"data": {
"footnote": "<?xml version=\"1.0\"?>\n<div class=\"csl-bib-body\" style=\"line-height: 1.35; \">\n <div class=\"csl-entry\">IPCC, 2018, <i>Global warming of 1.5 °C</i>, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.</div>\n</div>\n",
"footnoteTitle": "IPCC, 2018, Global warming of 1.5\u00a0\u00b0C, Geneva",
"uid": "qUn6o",
"zoteroId": "U2UPRVXI"
},
"type": "zotero"
},
{
"text": "."
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Probability of staying\nbelow target"
}
],
"type": "b"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Temperature\novershoot"
}
],
"type": "b"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "1.5\u00b0C target"
}
],
"type": "b"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "2.0\u00b0C target"
}
],
"type": "b"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Peak\u00a0\nconcentration"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Concentration\n2100"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Peak\nconcentration"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Concentration\n2100"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ">67% (likely)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "No"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "465"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(445-485)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "411"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(390-430)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "505"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(470-540)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "480"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(460-500)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Yes"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "485"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(465-505)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "405"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(385-425)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "520"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(505-540)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "465"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(440-480)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "50%\n(about as likely as not)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(33%-67%)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "No"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "485"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(465-500)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "440"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(430-445)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "540"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(510-560)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "520"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(500-535)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Yes"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "525"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(520-540)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "425"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(410-435)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "560"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(540-575)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "505"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(480-530)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "<33% (unlikely)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "No"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "500"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(480-530)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "470"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(445-480)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "580"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(550-615)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "570"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(540-600)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Yes"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "535"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(510-550)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "450"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(425-460)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "600"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(560-630)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "540"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "(505-580)"
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
},
{
"children": [
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": " "
}
],
"type": "sub"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
}
],
"type": "td"
}
],
"type": "tr"
}
],
"type": "tbody"
}
],
"type": "table"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "b"
},
{
"text": ""
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "Rationale uncertainty"
}
],
"type": "strong"
},
{
"text": ""
}
],
"type": "p"
},
{
"children": [
{
"text": "No uncertainty has been specified."
}
],
"type": "p"
}
]
