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The briefing reviews climate impacts in 2026 and provides a snapshot of rising climate risk, with a focus on transport and energy as defined in the Critical Entities and Resilience Directive. This is not a complete assessment, but documented case studies illustrate EUCRA risk pathways.
Key messages
Extreme weather events in 2026 have had a heavy economic toll, illustrating growing climate risk and the urgent need for stronger climate resilience and action.
Transport and energy networks and water supply are among many services that have been disrupted severely by prolonged drought, extreme heat, wildfires and storms. Climate impacts increasingly cascade across sectors, highlighting the need for systemic resilience responses.
The total EU-wide GDP impact in 2026 is estimated to be at least around -1%. Estimates show that the energy sector accounts for roughly 23% of Europe’s current drought-related economic losses, equivalent to around EUR 2 billion per year.
Lessons from 2026 show that resilience cannot be secured only by repairing damaged assets. It also requires climate-informed design standards, effective maintenance, monitoring, contingency planning and alternatives that remain operational during widespread disturbances from extreme events.
Europe’s essential systems are under growing pressure
The year 2026 so far has been marked by a number of extreme weather events. In January and February 2026, a succession of severe Atlantic storms hit Portugal, bringing exceptionally high winds, heavy rainfall, flooding and landslides. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) reports that most of Europe had a drier-than-average spring, with precipitation deficit particularly widespread in March and severe in April.
By late May, western Europe was experiencing an unusually early and intense heatwave, breaking May temperature records in several countries. The May heatwave was followed by a heatwave at the end of June that broke all-time temperature records in several countries, with major implications for transport and energy infrastructure.
By late July 2026, drought affected around half of the European Union (EU) and United Kingdom (UK) territory, with widespread warning and alert conditions across central and western Europe. Major rivers used for inland navigation (including the Rhine, Danube, Loire and Po) dropped to record-low levels, curtailing electricity production at hydropower and nuclear power utilities and disrupting supply chains. Both of these factors led to a downturn in industrial output. At the same time, during the heatwaves, daily power demand increased by as much as 25% in some countries.
According to the European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA), Europe’s critical infrastructure, such as transport (land, sea and air), energy, communication and water infrastructure, is increasingly exposed to extreme weather events. This threatens the services that the infrastructure provides (EEA, 2024, p. 32).
Moreover, EUCRA highlights that climate risks do not affect sectors in isolation (see Figure 1). Hazards can trigger cascading impacts across interconnected systems, with water acting as a cross-cutting dependency linking ecosystems, food, infrastructure, health and the economy.
Figure 1. Cascading effects from one system to another due to climate extremes
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The 2026 case studies in this briefing illustrate these dynamics in practice. They range from infrastructure failures cascading across energy and telecommunications, to drought disrupting power generation, freight, industry and wider economic activity.
Case study 1. Drought disrupts freight and supply chains, Rhine, Germany
Climate change is turning critical infrastructure that is not climate resilient into a systemic risk. Impacts on water, energy, transport and digital networks can cascade across sectors, disrupting economies and essential services far beyond the original hazard.
European Climate Risk Assessment, 2024.
Prolonged heat and drought in summer 2026 drove the Rhine to record-low levels, sharply reducing the capacity of one of Europe’s most important freight corridors. In 2022, for example, 86.3% of all goods carried on German inland waterways travelled wholly or partly on the Rhine. At Kaub, a critical chokepoint on the Middle Rhine, water levels fell below 10cm on 14 August 2026, compared with the previous record of around 25cm in 2018. Barges that normally have a draft of several metres of water could carry only a fraction of their normal loads. By late July, vessels passing Kaub were often around 20% loaded, carrying about 250 tonnes.
The disruption rapidly increased transport costs. Tanker-barge freight from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe rose from around EUR 45 per tonne at the end of June to EUR 150-155 per tonne by 31 July. By mid-August, freight between the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region and Basel had risen from about EUR 35 to 277 per tonne. Companies sought alternatives by rail and road, but capacity was limited: Germany’s construction industry estimated that replacing one barge can require up to 150 trucks.This particularly affected sectors such as the manufacture of chemicals, metals, coke and refined petroleum products.
Impacts spread across industries. Chemical producer Covestro declared force majeure on products from its Dormagen site because lost river capacity could not be fully replaced by road and rail. Chemical producer Evonik reported constrained production at Marl. Agricultural trader RWZ normally ships at least 50,000 tonnes from its Rhine terminals in July to August, but in 2026 had moved less than 10% of its usual volume. Responding to the low water levels, steel producer Salzgitter shifted coal deliveries from Rotterdam to rail.
The Bundesbank warned in August 2026 that the prolonged drought was negatively impacting the German economy. Restricted navigability on major rivers and sharply rising transport costs were expected to constrain industrial output and export growth, placing a significant drag on overall economic activity in the third quarter.
From climate hazard to societal impact
Damage to the built environment from extreme weather events is projected to multiply up to tenfold by the end of this century due to climate change. The most significant increases in impacts are expected in the energy and transport sectors (EEA, 2024, p. 175).
In the energy system, prolonged drought can constrain electricity supply while heatwaves increase peak electricity demand, potentially leading to power cuts (EEA, 2024, p. 166). Transport systems are exposed to multiple climate hazards. High temperatures can disrupt roads and rail infrastructure, while drought and low water levels can constrain inland navigation. Flooding, landslides and wildfires can also damage assets or force temporary closures (EEA, 2024, chs. 8, 9 and 15).
Impacts of the prolonged heat in summer 2026 evidenced transport and energy infrastructure’s vulnerability to rising temperatures (Deidda et al., 2026). Prolonged heatwaves led to rail service disruptions as far north as Sweden as tracks expanded and buckled, forcing speed restrictions and temporary line closures in several countries.
Urban public transport systems were also affected, with tram operations suspended in some cities after heat damaged tracks and overhead equipment. Wildfires in France disrupted road and rail transport, forcing evacuations, route closures and travel changes. Wildfires also caused major transport disruption in Spain, with 2,640km of roads closed during July and August 2026 across 227 roads.
While these examples illustrate the impact on the transport system in summer 2026, research shows that cumulative disruptions undermine services across Europe in a longer timeframe. Over a ten-year period (2015-2024), heatwaves alone caused a total railway traffic delay in Europe of more than 20 thousand hours (two years). These delays reflect the intensifying impact of extreme weather on rail operations over the past decade (ERA, 2025, p. 37).
Infrastructure assets do not function in isolation
Roads, railways, waterways, ports, power plants, electricity grids, telecommunications and water systems form networks within and across sectors (see Figure 1). When a critical component fails, the consequences can spread through the network or affect other essential systems (EEA, 2024, pp. 274-275).
These interdependencies can amplify disruption. Power failures can impact telecommunications, transport and water services. Conversely, disruption to digital infrastructure can affect electricity generation and distribution. EUCRA cites evidence that approximately 60% of power failures and 24% of telecommunications failures have caused outages in other sectors (EEA, 2024, p. 275).
Redundancy is therefore critical. Alternative routes, networks or sources of supply can limit the consequences of individual failures. But widespread or compound climate events may affect several components or transport modes simultaneously, reducing the availability of alternatives and allowing initially local disruptions to escalate (EEA, 2024, pp. 274-275).
Much of Europe’s infrastructure is ageing and was designed using historical climate conditions, creating an adaptation deficit even before future climate change is considered (EEA, 2024, pp. 269-276).
Case study 2. The case for systemic resilience — Storm Kristin hits transport, energy and ICT infrastructure in Portugal
‘Infrastructure assets are often part of an interconnected network, so a failure at one point in the network can cascade across the system. Understanding and managing the performance of the system as a whole is a prerequisite for climate resilience.’
Key messages on critical infrastructure: European Climate Risk Assessment, 2024.
Storm Kristin struck Portugal on 28 January 2026 with exceptional intensity, with winds of around 200km/h in some areas. It caused widespread and simultaneous damage to transport, electricity and telecommunications infrastructure, disrupting essential services and complicating emergency response and recovery.
Infraestruturas de Portugal recorded 345 total road closures and disruption on 11 railway sections. By August, 20 roads remained closed and sections of the Beira Baixa and West railway lines remained interrupted. An estimated EUR 400 million was allocated to restoring and strengthening affected road and rail infrastructure.
Storm Kristin also caused unprecedented damage to electricity infrastructure across central Portugal, affecting transmission and distribution networks. More than one million customers lost power, and over 6,000km of distribution network were affected. At transmission level, 61 very high voltage pylons were brought down and 774km of lines, around 7% of the national transmission grid, were taken out of operation.
Despite the scale of this damage, preventive measures, operational interventions and redundant transmission infrastructure maintained electricity supply at national system level, apart from localised interruptions around the partially destroyed Zêzere substation. The most severe consequences occurred at distribution level: two weeks after Kristin, around 30,000 customers in the main impact area were still without electricity. In July 2026, distribution network operator E-REDES estimated the cost of restoring the network at around EUR 110 million.
Power supply instability was one of the principal causes of telecommunications outages, demonstrating the sector’s dependence on electricity networks. Service was disrupted for 200,000 fixed network connections and approximately 300,000 mobile users.
Damage assessments carried out for Portugal’s application to the EU Solidarity Fund estimated telecommunications network recovery costs at over EUR 63 million, around half of which was related to damage to overhead fibre routes.
Portugal’s Insurance and Pension Funds Supervisory Authority (ASF) estimated the total economic damage at EUR 5.3 billion. Only 26% of economic losses were covered by insurance and only 8% of business units were covered for operating losses.
Resilience cannot be secured only by repairing damaged assets. It also requires climate-informed design standards, effective maintenance, monitoring, contingency planning and alternatives that remain operational during widespread events (EEA, 2024, pp. 275-280; European Commission, 2021).
Heat and drought expose energy’s dependence on water
The maps below show the river flows in the Rhine and Danube basins over the course of the summer, along with the locations of energy production facilities.
Map 1. Hydrological stress and critical infrastructure
The European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA, 2024) identifies disruption of energy supply and demand due to the impact of heat and drought as a significant climate risk, particularly in southern Europe. Energy systems face pressure from climate hazards and changing demand. Extreme heat can increase electricity demand for cooling while simultaneously constraining generation. Nuclear and thermal power plants depend on rivers for cooling, and hydropower depends on adequate river flows and reservoir levels (EEA, 2024, chs. 5, 8 and 15).
High water temperatures, low river flows and depleted reservoirs can therefore reduce electricity generation even when the generating assets remain technically functional. Combined with higher peak demand (for cooling) during heatwaves, these pressures can constrain thermal and nuclear generation, reduce hydropower output and potentially trigger wider cascading impacts across the economy (EEA, 2024, ch. 8 and p. 282).
The economic costs are already substantial. The total EU-wide gross domestic product (GDP) impact in 2026 is estimated at least around -1%. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) estimates that the energy sector accounts for roughly 23% of Europe’s current drought-related economic losses, equivalent to around EUR 2 billion per year.
However, during summer 2026, mainland Europe’s interconnected electricity system remained stable despite heat- and drought-related generation constraints in several countries. Cross-border coordination and the single electricity market allowed power to flow to where it was most needed, helping avoid short-term adequacy risks.
In contrast, Cyprus, the only European Union Member State with an entirely isolated power system and navigating a severe water crisis for some years now, introduced rolling blackouts during the prolonged July 2026 heatwave. This was due to record energy demands coinciding with generating unit failures, leaving insufficient capacity to meet the evening peak.
Case study 3. Cascading impacts — low Danube flows prompt nuclear shutdown at Cernavodă, Romania, and Paks, Hungary
‘Climate impacts can cascade from one system or region to another.’
European Climate Risk Assessment, 2024.
The Danube is Europe’s second-longest waterway, with a river basin stretching across 19 countries. The river is vital for freight, drinking water, agriculture and industry and supports hundreds of millions of people.
In July 2026, hydrological drought reduced Danube flows below levels needed to ensure process and cooling water supply under nuclear safety conditions. The flow rate monitored on 28 July upstream at Baziaș where the river enters Romania was 1,650m³/s, approximately three times lower than the multiannual average for July.
Downstream at Cernavodă, Nuclearelectrica’s two 706-megawatt reactors normally provide 20% of Romania’s power output. Due to the drought conditions, Unit 1 was shut down from 27 July 2026, and a controlled shutdown of Unit 2 began on 13 August.
On 31 July, the Romanian government declared an initial 30-day state of emergency (later extended to the end of September). It called on energy consumers, including households, companies and public institutions, to reduce electricity consumption during peak evening hours.
Over 80 of Romania’s largest energy-intensive companies, including car manufacturers, steel producers, fertilizer plants and other major industrial consumers responded to the state of emergency by lowering output and scheduling maintenance works. Examples include car plants operated by Renault-owned Dacia and Ford temporarily halting production, and major wood-based panel manufacturer Kronospan suspending part of its production.
In the regional electricity market, neighbouring Moldova was particularly exposed, as around 60% of its electricity needs were being met through the Romanian system. The shutdown increased price and peak-hour shortage risks, although Moldovan supplies were ultimately maintained.
Low Danube flows also led to water restrictions on irrigation, disrupted freight and navigation, reduced barge loading capacity, and constrained river tourism, with knock-on effects for agriculture and local economies. Heat and drought also sharply constrained electricity production in Hungary. The record-low Danube levels and high water temperatures forced repeated output reductions and temporary shutdowns at the Paks nuclear power plant, which normally supplies around 40% of Hungary’s electricity. The fall in output resulted in greater reliance on electricity imports, especially during costly peak evening hours when demand rose 20%. Large industrial consumers, including the MOL Group and Samsung SDI, were asked to reduce consumption to ease pressure on the grid.
These recent experiences further underline key findings from EUCRA, including the importance of water as a cross-cutting dependency connecting multiple systems. EUCRA explicitly notes that prolonged drought can degrade the water resources on which ‘people, agriculture, industry, power plants, river transport and ecosystems depend (EEA 2024 pp.7)’.
From asset protection to system resilience
The economic consequences of infrastructure disruption extend beyond physical repair costs. They can include reduced operating capacity, passenger and freight delays, higher logistics or energy costs, industrial production losses and disruption to public services (EEA, 2024, ch. 15).
EUCRA cites modelling that estimated expected annual damage to European critical infrastructure at EUR 3.4 billion in the 2000s, potentially rising to EUR 9.3 billion in the 2020s, EUR 19.6 billion in the 2050s and EUR 37 billion by the 2080s. EUCRA cautions that these figures may significantly underestimate actual damage and that losses from individual years and events may exceed annual averages (Forzieri et al., 2018; EEA, 2024, pp. 276-277 and 285). These projections provide long-term context and should not be presented as estimates of damage during 2026.
The extreme weather events in 2026 illustrate how climate impacts can affect several infrastructure sectors at the same time. Critical infrastructure failure acts as a risk multiplier. Direct hazard impacts on infrastructure can trigger service disruption, industrial shutdowns and cascading supply chain effects, substantially amplifying macroeconomic losses. Assessments and adaptation decisions therefore need to move beyond asset-level damage and consider infrastructure dependencies, economic interconnections and substitution capacity (Vanniya Perumal et al., 2026).
Lessons from 2026
Importance of including future climate conditions in planning. Infrastructure appraisal, design and maintenance should account for future changing conditions rather than rely only on historical observations. The principle of ‘resilience by design’ established in the Integrated Framework for European Climate Resilience should guide infrastructure planning to anticipate future climate conditions.
Need for systemic assessments. Risk assessments should cover networks, dependencies, supply chains and potential cross-border consequences, not only individual assets.
Regular stress testing. Meaningful stress tests can identify weaknesses and help prioritise investment at asset, network and system level.
Cross-sectoral testing. Alternative routes, backup systems, early warning and agreed contingency measures can limit disruption, although widespread events may overwhelm alternatives.
Cross-sectoral coordination. Infrastructure owners, regulators, authorities and emergency services need clearer responsibilities and better information on dependencies. The principle of ‘resilience by design’ established in the Integrated Framework for European Climate Resilience should ensure the exploration of these interdependencies.
Combination of incremental and transformational adaptation. Maintenance, operational adjustments and targeted retrofits may address immediate risks. Redesign, relocation or reconfiguration may be necessary where incremental measures cannot deliver long-term resilience.
EEA Briefing 22/2026:
Title: Europe’s critical infrastructure under climate stress — lessons from 2026
HTML: TH-01-26-048-EN-Q - ISBN: 978-92-9480-800-4 - ISSN: 2467-3196 - doi: 10.2800/2469788
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What climate extremes of 2026 teach Europe about resilient infrastructure
Extreme heat, drought, wildfires and storms disrupted transport, energy and water supply across Europe this year, confirming risks the European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) identified two years ago. A briefing published today by the European Environment Agency (EEA) looks at how to climate-proof critical infrastructure, based on the lessons learned this year.
