What will the future bring when it comes to climate hazards? - Overview

Heat and cold. Mean air temperature will rise steadily across Europe. As a result, growing degree days and cooling degree days will increase, whereas heating degree days and days with frost will decrease. Hot extremes are expected to increase even faster than mean temperatures. Humid heatwaves, which pose a great risk to human health, are projected to increase rapidly across Europe. 

Wet and dry. Projected changes in annual precipitation are expected to differ considerably across regions and seasons. In northern Europe, annual precipitation and heavy rainfall are likely to increase, with droughts becoming less frequent. Mixed changes are expected for summer rainfall, flooding events, aridity and fire hazards. Central Europe is likely to experience lower summer rainfall, but also harsher weather extremes (heavy precipitation, river floods, droughts and fire hazards), with mixed changes in annual precipitation and aridity. In southern Europe, annual precipitation and summer rainfall are projected to decrease, whereas aridity, droughts and fire hazards are all likely to increase. Mixed changes are projected for heavy precipitation and river floods.

Wind. Climate models anticipate relatively minor changes in mean wind speed. Storm intensity is projected to increase across Europe, but changes in the frequency are projected to differ across regions.

Snow and ice. Snowfall is projected to decrease in central and southern Europe, whereas mixed changes are anticipated for northern Europe. Snow cover is projected to decrease across Europe.

Coastal. Most coastal regions in Europe will experience further increases in mean and extreme sea levels, with the exception of the northern Baltic Sea, where land levels are still rising following the last ice age.

Open ocean. Sea surface temperature is projected to increase in all European regional seas, with associated increases in marine heatwaves. Europe’s seas are also expected to become more acidic.