Greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation in Europe

Greenhouse gas emission intensity of power generation in the European Union has returned to the overall decreasing trend of the past decades. This follows a slight increase in use of fossil fuels during 2021 and 2022, linked to post-COVID recovery and the war in Ukraine. Generating one kilowatt hour is estimated to have emitted, on average, 19% less CO₂ in 2023 than in 2022 and 35% less than a decade ago. Climate and energy policies have effectively lowered carbon-intensive electricity supply over time, resulting in less coal use, more renewables and a more efficient EU generation mix.

Figure 1. Greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation, EU level

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The EU electricity sector is expected to provide one of the most significant contributions to climate change mitigation by 2030 and be a cornerstone for the Union to reach net climate neutrality by 2050, according to scenarios behind the joint targets. For that to happen, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensity of the sector needs to fall drastically through the end of this decade.

In 2023, the EU’s electricity sector was estimated to be 58% less GHG intensive than it was in 1990 and 19% less thank 2022. Hydro and nuclear power returned to average generation levels, solar and wind power continued their growth and coal generation resumed its long-term decline. Electricity generation experienced a limited reduction (3%, compared with2022), partly linked to a lower production in specific EU industrial sectors.

Until 2010, the need to comply with industrial emissions legislation, such as the Large Combustion Plants Directive and the shift from fossil fuels to renewable electricity sources drove down the carbon intensity of EU electricity supply. As of 2010, the decrease has been almost exclusively due to the transition from fossil fuels to renewable electricity sources, with prices for emission allowances under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme increasing, especially since 2019.

To reduce the EU’s net greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 (compared with 1990) and reach carbon neutrality by 2050, electricity generation across the EU needs to decarbonise faster. Figure 1 visualises indicative intensity levels that would be consistent with the EU’s climate targets.

Today’s geopolitical context further calls for a rapid decarbonisation to replace gas, coal and oil use in power supply, heating and transport. This would also contribute to improved energy security and reduced electricity prices in the longer term. Additional policies and measures are needed to deploy renewable generation sources faster, provide incentives to users to save energy and participate actively in the electricity market, and ensure an optimised build out of electricity infrastructures across the European Union.

Figure 2. Greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation, country level

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The GHG intensity of electricity production differs significantly between Member States. Estonia, Poland, Cyprus and Bulgaria are estimated to have had the highest electricity generation carbon intensity in 2023. This is due to the use of solid fossil fuels, relatively few renewables and limited, or no, nuclear sources in their national electricity mixes.

In eight additional Member States, the carbon intensity was higher than the EU average (Czechia, Greece, Germany, Malta, the Netherlands, Ireland, Italy and Romania). Yet, the GHG intensities for electricity production were lowest in Sweden, Luxembourg and Finland, because of their high share of low-carbon electricity sources (renewables and nuclear power).

For national achievements, estimates show the highest rates of decarbonisation in electricity production over the 1990-2023 period in Luxembourg (87% decrease), Denmark (86%), Slovakia (82%) and Latvia (81%). In non-EU EEA countries, all electricity produced in Iceland and most produced in Norway comes from renewable sources, therefore their GHG emission intensities are very low. Türkiye has a relatively high GHG emission intensity of electricity generation.

Supporting information

DefinitionMethodology

The GHG intensity of total electricity generation is taken as the ratio of CO₂equivalent emissions from all electricity production (both from main activity producers and auto-producers) to total electricity generation, including electricity from nuclear plants and renewable sources.

For main activity producers, the CO₂e emissions from electricity generation only (i.e. excluding emissions resulting from heat production), were estimated as follows:

a) Estimating the transformation input for gross heat production by formula:

(ESTAT code TI_EHG_MAPH_E)+(ESTAT code GHP_MAPCHP)/(apparent efficiency for heat only production); apparent efficiency for heat production is: (ESTAT code GHP_MAPH)/(ESTAT code TI_EHG_MAPH_E). If apparent efficiency is zero (i.e. no heat only production), then default efficiency is 0.9.

b) Estimating the transformation input for electricity generation by subtracting the estimated transformation input for gross heat production from total transformation input for electricity and heat generation, by formula:

(ESTAT codes TI_EHG_MAPE_E)+(ESTAT codes TI_EHG_MAPCHP_E)+( ESTAT codes TI_EHG_MAPH_E)–(the result of a);

c) Multiplying the ratio of b) and the transformation input for electricity and heat generation (ESTAT codes TI_EHG_MAPE_E, TI_EHG_MAPCHP_E, and TI_EHG_MAPH_E) to total CO₂e emissions from public electricity and heat production (1A1a from the EEA data viewer). Formula:

(EEA data viewer 1A1A)*((the result of b)/(the result of a)).

The reported CO₂e emissions in class 1A1a do not include CO₂e emissions from autoproducers. Emissions from electricity generated by autoproducers were estimated by multiplying the ratio of the energy input for autoproducers and the energy input for main activity producers by the CO₂e emissions from main activity producers (as calculated in steps a-c above). The energy input for electricity generation by autoproducers was estimated using the same method as for main activity producers (a and b above) using the ESTAT codes GHP_APH and GHP_APCHP for gross heat production and TI_EHG_APE_E, TI_EHG_APCHP_E, and TI_EHG_APH_E for transformation input for electricity and heat production.

A zero CO₂e emission factor was applied to nuclear power and to renewables (including the biodegradable fraction of municipal solid waste), as the method does not take into account life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions. This applies also to solid biofuels: in accordance with the United Framework Convention on Climate Change Reporting Guidelines, biofuel-related emissions have to be reported as a memorandum item in greenhouse gas emission inventories, with the assumption being that harvesting emissions would be shown as changes in carbon stocks in the land use, land use change and forestry sector, not in the energy sector. This should not be interpreted, however, as an endorsement of default carbon neutrality or the sustainability of biofuels.

The denominator of the GHG intensity of total electricity production is the sum of electricity produced from main activity producers (ESTAT: GEP_MAPE and GEP_MAPCHP) and autoproducers (ESTAT: GEP_APE and GEP_APCHP).

Calculation Formula: (CO₂e * ((ei_MAP – dh_MAP)/ei_MAP))*((ei_AP-dh_AP)/(ei_MAP-dh_MAP))+CO₂e*((ei_MAP–dh_MAP)/ei_MAP)))/(GEP/85.98), where:

CO₂e represents ‘CO₂ equivalent emissions-Fuel combustion in public electricity and heat production (A1A1)’, from the EEA greenhouse gas data viewer. The values do not include CO₂e emissions from the combustion of biomass; nor do they include upstream emissions (e.g. fugitive emissions due to methane leaks or construction emissions);
‘ei_MAP’ represents ‘energy input of Main Activity Producers’ and includes ‘TI_EHG_MAPE_E’, ‘TI_EHG_MAPCHP_E’ and ‘TI_EHG_MAPH_E’;
‘ei_AP’ represents ‘energy input of Autoproducers’ and includes ‘TI_EHG_APE’, ‘TI_EHG_APCHP_E’ and ‘TI_EHG_APH_E’;
‘dh_MAP’ represents ‘derived heat of Main Activity Producers’ and is based on the formula ‘TI_EHG_MAPH_E’+‘GHP_MAPCHP’/(apparent efficiency for heat only production); apparent efficiency for heat production is: 'GHP_MAPH'/'TI_EHG_MAPH_E';
‘dh_AP’ represents ‘derived heat of Autoproducers’ and is based on the formula ‘TI_EHG_APH_E’+‘GHP_MAPCHP’/(apparent efficiency for heat only production); apparent efficiency for heat production is: 'GHP_APH' /'TI_EHG_APH_E';
‘GEP’ represents ‘Gross electricity production’ and includes ‘GEP_MAPE’, ‘GEP_MAPCHP’, ‘GEP_APE’ and ‘GEP_APECHP’;
0.9 represents the assumed efficiency of heat production and is used only when the apparent efficiency calculated based on Eurostat data is zero. A pro-rata split of CO₂ between heat and electricity is assumed;
85.98 represents the conversion factor from kilotonnes oil equivalent to GWh.

Policy/environmental relevance

The EU aims to be climate-neutral (i.e. its economy will emit net-zero greenhouse gas emissions) by 2050. This objective is at the heart of the European Green Deal and in line with the EU's commitment to global climate action under the Paris Agreement. Decarbonising electricity supply, for instance by substantially accelerating the deployment of renewable energy sources to achieve a share of almost 70% in electricity generation by 2030 and over 80% by 2050, is critical to achieving this objective.

Targets

No targets have been specified.

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References and footnotes

EC, 2021, Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions – ‘Fit for 55’: delivering the EU’s 2030 climate target on the way to climate neutrality, COM(2021) 550 final, Brussels, 14.7. 2021.
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Eurostat, 2023, 'Energy balances – early estimates, (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Energy_balances_-_early_estimates) accessed Aug.30, 2023.
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Greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation in Europe

Figure 1. Greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation, EU level

Figure 2. Greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation, country level

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References and footnotes