Foresight for sustainability

Foresight approaches bring together diverse viewpoints to explore and anticipate future developments, thereby helping society to plan and build resilience here in the present.

The European Environment Agency (EEA) supports the development and implementation of policies to accelerate sustainability transitions in an increasingly interconnected, complex and uncertain world.To this end, the EEA is focusing on delivering more systemic, actionable and solution-oriented knowledge. An integral part of this evolution has been the expansion of its foresight capacity.

The EEA’s Europe’s Environment reports have highlighted the essential role of anticipatory and systems thinking in supporting the governance of sustainability transitions. The EEA-Eionet Strategy 2021-2030 also signals the growing importance of foresight in EEA work.

EEA-Eionet Horizon Scan

Each year, the EEA and Eionet conduct a participatory Horizon Scan on selected topics in one or more of the five main areas of work of the EEA-Eionet Strategy (See Figure 1). Horizon scanning is a structured way to systematically identify emerging developments that could be highly relevant to our environment but are not yet firmly on the political agenda.

Figure 1. 5 main EEA-Eionet areas of work.png

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Figure 2 shows the four steps of the structured approach used in the EEA-Eionet horizon scanning process. By having information on emerging developments at an early stage, decision-makers can improve their ability to act strategically, respond more proactively to future threats, and make better use of opportunities to improve the state of the environment.

Figure 2. EEA-Eionet Horizon Scanning process

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Horizon Scan 2024: The five EEA-Eionet areas of work as topics for scanning

The page highlights five of the 14 emerging issues identified and presented in the European Topic Centre on Sustainability Transitions (ETC ST) report. These were selected to show a range of topics covered in the broader analysis.

The following emerging issues and the content of the report are the result of a broad and participatory forward-looking process involving numerous participants across organisations. As such, this work does not directly reflect the views of the EEA.

Water — a ticking time bomb for sustainability

The world is facing a systemic water crisis that is both local and global, with nations and regions connected through the water cycle. Increasing demand, misuse, mismanagement, and pollution of water, exacerbated by climate change and biodiversity loss, have thrown the global water cycle out of balance, with potentially catastrophic consequences for human societies and ecosystems.

Signal 1: Illegal water markets
Signal 2: Desalination plants are spreading rapidly
Signal 3: Extraction of water by large corporations to the detriment of the local population
Signal 4: Urban water crisis are driven by unsustainable consumption, mainly from elites
Signal 5: Droughts and the role of soils, even in Europe

See the ETC ST report for the full version of the signals, the supporting sources and the remaining emerging issues.

New ways of construction: Lightweight, resource-efficient, climate change resilient

The construction industry is evolving to meet sustainability challenges, increase resource efficiency, and build resilience to climate change. Recycled materials from construction and demolition waste are gaining traction as a viable alternative to virgin resources. In addition, new materials are being re-discovered (e.g., mycelium, bamboo, or straw bales) or developed (e.g., geopolymer as an alternative to cement or advanced plastics).

Signal 1: New or modified materials for construction
Signal 2: New construction methods and concepts
Signal 3: Growing need for sustainable cooling solutions

See the ETC ST report for the full version of the signals, the supporting sources and the remaining emerging issues

A synthetic world - from plastics to persistent chemicals

In recent decades, the introduction of synthetic substances, including chemicals and plastics, into industrial processes and consumer products has created complex human health and environmental challenges with significant uncertainties. These substances are now ubiquitous in both ecosystems and human bodies, revealing a worrying gap between our understanding of their long-term effects and their actual impact.

Signal 1: Plastics in the air may change weather patterns
Signal 2: PFAS: 'The precautionary principle has failed'
Signal 3: Toxic materials resulting from plastic recycling processes

See the ETC ST report for the full version of the signals, the supporting sources and the remaining emerging issues.

Shifts in food production and supply: New and potentially sustainable alternatives

The food system is undergoing significant changes as we seek more sustainable alternatives to traditional food production and supply. These include alternative food production methods such as: vertical farming; plant-based proteins; underwater food cultivation; modern homesteading (i.e. the practice of living frugally or self-sufficiently); the utilisation of agricultural byproducts, and emerging urban farming practices.

Signal 1: Can underwater agriculture reshape the future of food?
Signal 2: Homesteading as an alternative to conventional food production
Signal 3: The potential of food waste and agricultural (by-)products
Signal 4: The potential and the pitfalls of urban farming

See the ETC ST report for the full version of the signals, the supporting sources and the remaining emerging issues.

AI — promises and perils for sustainability

Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers significant opportunities to advance environmental sustainability. For example, it can help improve recycling processes, increase energy efficiency across sectors, or support biodiversity monitoring. However, as awareness of AI's energy consumption increases, its image as a panacea for environmental challenges needs critical examination. While accurate estimates are difficult to obtain, consulting firm Gartner suggests that by the end of this decade, generative AI will be responsible for 3.5% of global energy demand, posing a serious challenge to climate goals through increased electricity consumption and CO2 emissions.

Signal 1: AI in recycling and waste management
Signal 2: Using AI to safeguard biodiversity
Signal 3: AI’s thirst for energy, water, and critical raw materials
Signal 4: Sustainable AI – yet another technology reinforcing a non-sustainable world?

See the ETC ST report for the full version of the signals, the supporting sources and the remaining emerging issues.

Together with Eionet, the EEA published a practical guide which aims to foster a culture of anticipation and preparedness by inspiring and equipping practitioners across Europe to explore the future using horizon scanning.

See our practical guide here

Giulia Soriente, My City /EEA

Imagining a sustainable Europe in 2050

The report 'Imagining a sustainable Europe in 2050: exploring implications for core production and consumption systems' looks at how Europe’s food, energy and mobility systems and the built environment could evolve by 2050. These systems are vital for meeting Europeans’ basic needs but also contribute significantly to environmental and climate pressures, making it crucial to explore how they might evolve in more sustainable ways.

How to achieve sustainability amid shocks and crises?

The ‘Europe’s Sustainability Transitions Outlook’ report stresses the need to broaden today’s political priorities — such as security, competitiveness and fairness — by recognising their dependence on a healthy environment, a stable climate and sustainable resource use.

How can Europe stay the course on sustainability amid shocks and crises? How do we anchor existing environment and climate priorities within new, emerging ones without losing sight of our long-term sustainability objectives?

Find the answers here

Nikolaos Kalkounos, Picture2050 /EEA

Angelina Volkova, Sustainably Yours /EEA

‘Future-proofing’ the transition to sustainability

Europe must change how people live, work, produce and consume to become sustainable, but guiding such major transitions with policy is challenging. This briefing explores how to future-proof sustainability policies and avoid blind spots using a foresight-based framework that includes participatory exercises with a multidisciplinary group of experts. By assessing future risks and impacts, it outlines strategies that support the sustainability transition and inform future policy.