1.5 Ecosystems and climate impacts

This briefing covers how climate change neagtively impacts ecosystems in Europe. Many ecosystems across Europe are already in a bad state (see briefing 1.1 State of Europe’s biodiversity) and their deterioration is further exacerbated by climate change.

Ecosystem status (briefing 1.1 State of Europe’s biodiversity), water and climate impacts (briefing 1.4 Water and climate impacts), and managing climate risks to society (briefing 2.7 Climate risks to society) are covered in other briefings.

Key policies

There are not yet any specific policy targets to reduce direct climate impacts on ecosystems. Meeting existing targets for ecosystems is increasingly difficult due to the exacerbating effects of climate change. Relevant climate and environmental policies related to this topic include the European Green Deal, EU biodiversity strategy for 2030, EU adaptation strategy and Climate Law, and the Nature Restoration Regulation. These policies aim to reduce pressure on ecosystems and/or restore them while adapting to climate change.

Past trends (10-15 years)

Deteriorating trends/developments dominate

Over the past few decades, ecosystems have faced increasing stress from climate change. Temperatures both on land and in the sea have risen, affecting migration patterns and species distributions, with species moving to higher altitudes or latitudes. Altered rainfall patterns have led to increasing droughts in some regions and flooding in others, impacting freshwater ecosystems and vegetation productivity (Figure 1). Climate change also reduces ecosystems' carbon storage potential, thereby threatening Europe’s mitigation targets. Between 2000 and 2022 the areas impacted by drought have increased in the EU. Between 2007 and 2022 an estimated 18,038km² of Natura 2000 protected sites across Europe were burned due to wildfires.

The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, which intensify both abiotic and biotic disturbances, have caused habitat destruction and altered ecosystem dynamics. Increased CO₂ levels have caused ocean warming, acidification and oxygen loss, all of which harm marine life, such as shellfish, invertebrates and coral reefs (Figure 2). This has implications throughout the marine food web; for example, for fisheries. The rising sea temperature intensifies storms and accelerates polar ice cap melting. Changes in the timing of biological events, like flowering and migration, have disrupted ecological interactions and food webs. Accelerated species extinction and biodiversity loss are evident, with many species unable to adapt quickly enough to changing conditions.

Outlook (10-15 years)

Deteriorating trends/developments are expected to dominate

The outlook for ecosystems in the near future shows continued and intensified impacts from climate change. Southern Europe especially will be increasingly impacted by heatwaves and water scarcity. The effectiveness of nature-based solutions, including urban tree cover, can be hampered by changing climatic suitability. Nature conservation and restoration efforts must take climate change scenarios into account to ensure long-term effectiveness. The Arctic Ocean is particularly vulnerable due to unprecedented warming, with a nearly ice-free Arctic Sea in summer likely to be experienced before 2050. Rising sea levels and altered land use will lead to increased habitat loss, particularly in coastal and low-lying areas. As the climate warms, fire-prone areas will expand and longer fire seasons are expected, with an increase in forest pests and diseases.

Prospects of meeting policy targets, 2030/2050

2030 No specific policy targets

2050 No specific policy targets

Robustness

Short-term climate risks for terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems are well-established; long-term projections regarding risk severity are more uncertain and depend largely on global mitigation actions. Rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, increases in ocean acidity, and the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are well-supported by climate models and historical data. Observations also confirm habitat shifts and biodiversity loss. Overall, while challenges remain, the robustness of current trends and the prospects for meeting policy targets are strong if supported by committed, coordinated efforts across Europe.

Charts/maps

Figure 1. Area of drought impact on vegetation productivity in the EU-27, 2000-2023

Figure 2. Decline in ocean pH (measured at the Aloha station) and yearly mean surface seawater pH (global data)