1.4 Water and climate impacts

This briefing provides a European overview of droughts, water scarcity and floods. It emphasises the importance of water resilience in response to human-induced pressures and the escalating risks of climate change impacts. It uses data reported under the Water Framework Directive and WISE SoE dataflows, EEA indicators and assessments such as the European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA). These datasets help define past trends in water scarcity and flooding, which provide a baseline for the outlook and prospects for achieving a water-resilient Europe.

Key policies

Water plays a core role in Europe's competitiveness and its green transition. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) promotes sustainable water use, while the Flood Directive establishes a framework for managing flood risks. The European Water Resilience Strategy addresses water security, pollution and climate risks, focusing on efficient water use, restoring and protecting the water cycle, and securing clean and affordable water and sanitation. The European Commission (EC)’s communication on managing climate risk identifies water as key for building a climate-resilient Europe.

Past trends (10-15 years)

Trends/developments show a mixed picture

In Europe, climate change has intensified extreme droughts and floods, impacting water availability, ecosystems, food and energy production, and human health. Annually, water stress affects about 30% of the land and 34% of the population in Europe, particularly in southern Europe and densely-populated areas (Figure 1). Climate change also worsens water quality by increasing pollutant concentrations and causing saltwater intrusion from rising sea levels.

Between 1980 and 2022, floods caused 5,582 direct deaths. However, in July 2021, floods in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands led to more than 200 deaths, as well as EUR 44 billion in property and infrastructure damage. The October 2024 floods in Valencia, Spain also caused a similar death toll. In May 2024, severe spring drought conditions affected about 30% of the European land area, primarily cropland.

Since 2000, the EU has decreased water abstraction by 19% (Figure 2) with a rising share of groundwater abstraction. According to the submissions under the 3rd river basin management plans (RBMP), 91% of groundwater bodies were reported to be in good quantitative status, yet 18% faced abstraction pressure and 27% were deemed at risk of failing by 2027.

Flood and drought risk management plan integration through RBMP and other cross-sectoral planning initiatives remains insufficient.

Outlook (10-15 years)

Trends/developments expected to show a mixed picture

Balancing sectoral water demands is critical amid worsening climate impacts. Insufficient water resources intensify competition across economic sectors. Climate change escalates river and coastal flooding, leading to saltwater intrusion and reduced groundwater usability.

Pressure on water resources will increase, with southern Europe facing severe water stress. Reduced snow cover and earlier melting will worsen droughts and floods, with this trend intensifying under a warming climate in Europe.

Europe’s water management is poorly-adapted to this rapid change, compromising longer-term resilience. Because of inadequate institutional frameworks and capacity, cross-sectoral actions and measures are not effectively promoted, so water stress and drought policy objectives are not adequately integrated into other policy areas. The shift from crisis to risk management reveals institutional gaps, a situation also highlighted by EUCRA.

The agriculture, water supply and energy sectors can save water by 10-40% through better governance, technological innovation and public awareness.

Insufficient water data persists as an issue in Europe. Copernicus and digital innovations offer timely insights to address climate and human-made risks, and build resilience.

Europe will face more frequent droughts, floods and rising sea levels, as well as compound climatic risks. Prolonged droughts will become more common, worsening water stress and impacting society, the economy and ecosystems.

Key actions for climate adaptation include reducing water abstraction, increasing circularity in water use, enhancing retention and restoring ecosystems. While these measures improve water resilience, they are unlikely to reduce climate change risks. Preparedness, emergency responses, and adapting societal and economic activities are essential to reducing vulnerability in Europe.

Prospects of meeting policy targets, 2030/2050

2030 No specific policy targets

There are no legally-binding targets for water scarcity, drought or flood risk management in Europe or globally. However, the recently-adopted European Water Resilience Strategy sets a non-binding objective for improving water efficiency by at least 10% by 2030. An assessment of the prospects for reaching that objective is expected in the future.

2050 No specific policy targets

Robustness

Abstraction pressure on water resources is well-established. Data on the spatial extent, frequency and intensity of drought events provide the most up-to-date information. However, long-term projections for drought and flood risks are more uncertain, as they depend on both European and global mitigation.

The rising frequency and intensity of hydro-climate extremes due to climate change are supported by regional and global models. Assessing policy implementation and its effectiveness is uncertain, as many measures are not specifically tailored to standalone environmental problems. Nevertheless, a general overview shows that coordinated policy efforts need to be strengthened.

Charts/maps

Figure 1. Summer water scarcity conditions across Europe, measured by the water exploitation index plus (WEI+) for sub-river basins, 2022

Figure 2. Water abstraction by selected economic sectors