2.7 Climate risks to society

This briefing covers how climate change risks impact European society, with a particular focus on vulnerable groups and the extent to which Europe’s society is prepared to address these. Climate change impacts on economic activities are discussed in briefing 2.6 Climate risks to the economy. Environmental health inequalities are addressed in briefing 3.6 Environmental health inequalities related to air pollution. Information on adaptation governance can be found in briefing 2.9 Governance of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Justice aspects in sustainability transitions are more broadly discussed in briefing 4.11 Justice in sustainability transitions.

Key policies

The EU Adaptation Strategy (2021), the European Climate Law (2021) and the European Commission’s (EC’s) adaptation guidelines (2023) stress the need to leave no one behind when increasing adaptive capacity and resilience, and reducing vulnerability to climate change. Yet the EU’s communication on ‘managing climate risks – protecting people and prosperity’, responding to the European Climate Risk Assessment, states that justice considerations are still in their early stages in many Member States.

The EU Civil Protection Mechanism helps increase disaster resilience across the EU.

Past trends (10-15 years)

Trends/developments show a mixed picture

Climate risks have been increasing over the past 10-15 years, with the European continent warming twice as fast as the global average. Between 1980 and 2023, heatwaves have caused 229,306 human fatalities in EU countries.

Society’s exposure to climate hazards such as flooding or extreme heat is also increasing, leading to devastating health impacts (Map 1).

Out of 36 major climate risks identified in the European Climate Risk Assessment, more than half need more action at this moment in time and eight are particularly urgent. Two of these eight relate to human health. Existing EU-level policies are not progressing sufficiently to manage most climate risks. However, disaster risk management and civil protection actions are contributing to societal preparedness.

People are exposed to and impacted by the risks in an unequal way. This can be due to their socioeconomic status, where they live or other characteristics. At the same time, vulnerable social groups may not benefit fairly from adaptation responses. So far, European policies and plans have given limited attention to justice issues.

Outlook (10-15 years)

Trends/developments expected to show a mixed picture

Given the slow implementation of solutions for societal preparedness, past negative trends in societal impacts are projected to continue. The expectation is that socially-vulnerable population groups in particular will continue to be affected disproportionately.

At national and subnational levels, the number of policies, plans and strategies to address these impacts is increasing and Member States now all have adaptation strategies in place. The focus on justice in adaptation is growing with many countries referring to justice in their reported information (Map 2).

We do not currently know whether the increase in preparedness is keeping track with the increase in climate hazards. However, without a step change in the implementation of effective and just responses — such as heat-health action plans, equitably distributing risk management measures such as insurance or action on the consequences of climate change on mental health — the outlook is bleak.

Prospects of meeting policy targets 2030/2050

2030: No specific policy targets

2050: No specific policy targets

Robustness

Various sources provide data on past climate-sensitive health impacts, such as mandatory reporting by Member States, official statistics and attribution analyses. However, without quantified policy targets or adaptation indicators, it is challenging to assess the likelihood of meeting those policy targets.

In addition, many measures that will have a positive impact on managing climate risks for society will not necessary be labelled adaptation or resilience measures, making it difficult to model non-climatic drivers and consequently get a clear idea of the mid-term outlook.

Charts/maps

Map 1. Trends in the incidence of heat-related mortality in Europe, 2000-2020

Map 2. European countries (EU-27, Iceland and Switzerland) that refer to justice considerations in their national reporting under the Governance Regulation of the Energy Union and Climate Action (Article 17 and 19)