Scenarios

In this study, wherever possible, the values obtained from historic time-series are combined with the values obtained from available scenarios or porjections, relying on modelling exercises. To note, however, that it is not always possible to represent past and future data consistently due to differences in accounting methodologies as well as the granularity of the datasets. As an example, Passenger Activity, in the passenger transport activity section is reported for Domestic and International intra-EU maritime in the historic time-series and for Domestic Navigation in the scenario. For this reason, we reported historic and scenario data in two separate figures. This study relies mainly on two scenarios that are briefly described below. To note also, that the projections shown in this study, illustrate one of the possible way trends may evolve. Actual developments will be influenced by a large number of factors, such as the international context, prices, and policies.

Fit for 55 scenario (F55-MIX)

The Fit for 55 scenarios are three policy scenarios which serve as common tool to analyse the impacts of the various initiatives of the European Green Deal policy package. In this study, we rely on the MIX scenario which, even though it obviously cannot fully represent the most recent policies approved or announced at EU or national level, we considered it to be the closest to the current context. The scenario is described as follows:

“MIX: relying on both carbon price signal extension to road transport and buildings and strong intensification of energy and transport policies. With its uniform carbon price, it reflects either an extended and fully integrated EU ETS or an existing EU ETS and a new ETS established for road transport and buildings with emission caps set in line with cost-effective contributions of the respective sectors. Maritime transport sector is assumed to be included in the existing EU ETS in MIX” (EC, 2024f).

The MIX scenario is coherent with reducing GHG emission by at least 55% by 2030​ compared to 1990 levels (EEA, 2023f).

With additional measure scenario (WAM)

The WAM scenario relies on projections reported by Member States under Article 18 of the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union, whereby each MS developed an integrated national energy and climate plan (EU, 2018b). The resulting EU dataset is therefore a compilation of 27 different projections, rather than the result of a single modelling exercise. A comparison with such modelling exercise and the recent scenario developed by the Commission can be found here (EEA, 2023f).

WAM refers to the ‘With Additional Measures’ scenario (WAM) which is a compilation of 27 different projections, rather than the result of a single modelling exercise. The WAM scenario includes not only all policies and measures that were adopted or implemented at the time of reporting, but also all measures planned to reach the targets of the European Grean Deal, for the five dimensions of the Energy Union: decarbonisation, energy security, energy efficiency, internal energy market, and research, innovation & competitiveness (EC, 2024e). The definition of these ‘additional measures’ is, however, rather flexible and the way this is adopted is heterogeneous across Member States. To note, as before, EU-27 domestic aviation and domestic navigation always correspond to the sum of the corresponding emissions for each member state (EEA, 2023d). A comparison with such scenarios developed by member states and the recent MIX-FF55 developed by the Commission can be found in the Trends and Projections Report (EEA, 2023f).

Labelling

In this study several different datasets have been combined. To provide a coherent picture across the different sections and figures, the labels used in the original datasets have been harmonised. The following tables provide an overview of the original and the harmonised labels for each dataset used in this study along with the essential information regarding their definition. The reader is referred to the documentation of the datasets for the full descriptions and the corresponding accounting methodologies for transport activity, energy consumption, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions. To note that, because of the different granularity of the datasets as well as different accounting methodologies, it is not possible to have consistency across the difference chapters (see also Eurostat, 2022). As an example, it is not possible to provide final energy consumption, GHG and pollutant emissions considering the same sector definitions used to report activity. The time-series reported for each figure, correspond to the full extent available in the original data.

Table 1: Original and harmonised labels for the data obtained from the 2024 Statistical Pocketbook (EC, 2024d) and used to report historical passenger and freight transport data. ‘Road’ includes national and international haulage by vehicles registered in the EU-27 until 2004 and from 2005 onwards, the activity performed by European drivers within the EU territory. ‘Sea’ and ‘Air’ refer to only domestic and international intra-EU-27 freight and passenger transport, as specified in the harmonised labels. To note that the accounting methodology for these sectors in the Statistical Pocketbook is different from the methodology used in Eurostat. The Statistical Pocket book considers a 50-50 approach (i.e in the case of international intra-EU flights 50% of all flights (incoming + outgoing) are attributed to the country of origin and 50 % of the flights are attributed to the country of destination). Eurostat, on the other hand uses a different methodology based on the activity performed in the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ): the activity is allocated proportionally to the countries, according to the distance passed in the EEZ of each country. The term “Oil pipelines” indicates the infrastructure used to move or petroleum products.

Original label

Harmonised label

Road

Road

Passenger Cars

Cars

Buses & Coaches

Buses and coaches

Powered 2-wheelers

Powered two-wheelers

Railways

Rail

High speed rail

High-speed rail

Tram & Metro

Tram and metro

Rail

Rail

Inland Waterway

Inland Waterway

Sea

Domestic and intra-EU maritime

Air

Domestic and intra-EU aviation

Oil Pipeline

Oil pipeline

Table 2: Original and harmonised labels for the data obtained from the Eurostat’s complete energy balances (Eurostat, 2024) and used to report historic final energy consumption per sector and per fuel. To note, sector-fuel combinations that are labelled with the same harmonised label are grouped in a single category.

Sector name

Sector code

Fuel name

Fuel code

Harmonised label

Road

FC_TRA_ROAD_E

Renewables and biofuels

RA000

Biofuels

Domestic aviation

FC_TRA_DAVI_E

Renewables and biofuels

RA000

Biofuels (Domestic aviation)

International aviation

INTAVI

Renewables and biofuels

RA000

Biofuels (International aviation)

Rail

FC_TRA_RAIL_E

Renewables and biofuels

RA000

Biofuels

Domestic navigation

FC_TRA_DNAVI_E

Renewables and biofuels

RA000

Biofuels (Domestic navigation)

International navigation

INTMARB

Renewables and biofuels

RA000

Biofuels (International navigation)

Road

FC_TRA_ROAD_E

Electricity

E7000

Electricity

Rail

FC_TRA_RAIL_E

Electricity

E7000

Electricity

Domestic navigation

FC_TRA_DNAVI_E

Fuel oil

O4680

Fuel oil (Domestic navigation)

International navigation

INTMARB

Fuel oil

O4680

Fuel oil (International navigation)

Road

FC_TRA_ROAD_E

Gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel portion)

O4671XR5220B

Diesel

Rail

FC_TRA_RAIL_E

Gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel portion)

O4671XR5220B

Diesel

Domestic navigation

FC_TRA_DNAVI_E

Gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel portion)

O4671XR5220B

Diesel (Domestic navigation)

International navigation

INTMARB

Gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel portion)

O4671XR5220B

Diesel (International navigation)

Road

FC_TRA_ROAD_E

Motor gasoline (excluding biofuel portion)

O4652XR5210B

Gasoline

Domestic navigation

FC_TRA_DNAVI_E

Motor gasoline (excluding biofuel portion)

O4652XR5210B

Gasoline (Domestic navigation)

International navigation

INTMARB

Motor gasoline (excluding biofuel portion)

O4652XR5210B

Gasoline (International navigation)

Domestic aviation

FC_TRA_DAVI_E

Kerosene-type jet fuel (excluding biofuel portion)

O4661XR5230B

Kerosene-type jet fuel (Domestic navigation)

International aviation

INTAVI

Kerosene-type jet fuel (excluding biofuel portion)

O4661XR5230B

Kerosene-type jet fuel (International navigation)

Road

FC_TRA_ROAD_E

Liquefied petroleum gases

O4630

LPG

Road

FC_TRA_ROAD_E

Natural gas

G3000

Natural gas

International navigation

INTMARB

Natural gas

G3000

Natural gas (International navigation)

Road

FC_TRA_ROAD_E

Naphtha

O4640

Other fossil fuels

Road

FC_TRA_ROAD_E

Other kerosene

O4669

Other fossil fuels

Road

FC_TRA_ROAD_E

Fuel oil

O4680

Other fossil fuels

Road

FC_TRA_ROAD_E

White spirit and special boiling point industrial spirits

O4691

Other fossil fuels

Road

FC_TRA_ROAD_E

Other oil products n.e.c.

O4699

Other fossil fuels

Domestic aviation

FC_TRA_DAVI_E

Aviation gasoline

O4651

Other fossil fuels (Domestic aviation)

Domestic aviation

FC_TRA_DAVI_E

Motor gasoline (excluding biofuel portion)

O4652XR5210B

Other fossil fuels (Domestic aviation)

Domestic aviation

FC_TRA_DAVI_E

Gasoline-type jet fuel

O4653

Other fossil fuels (Domestic aviation)

Domestic aviation

FC_TRA_DAVI_E

Other kerosene

O4669

Other fossil fuels (Domestic aviation)

Domestic aviation

FC_TRA_DAVI_E

Gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel portion)

O4671XR5220B

Other fossil fuels (Domestic aviation)

International aviation

INTAVI

Aviation gasoline

O4651

Other fossil fuels (International aviation)

International aviation

INTAVI

Motor gasoline (excluding biofuel portion)

O4652XR5210B

Other fossil fuels (International aviation)

International aviation

INTAVI

Gasoline-type jet fuel

O4653

Other fossil fuels (International aviation)

International aviation

INTAVI

Other kerosene

O4669

Other fossil fuels (International aviation)

International aviation

INTAVI

Gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel portion)

O4671XR5220B

Other fossil fuels (International aviation)

International aviation

INTAVI

Liquefied petroleum gases

O4630

Other fossil fuels (International aviation)

Rail

FC_TRA_RAIL_E

Liquefied petroleum gases

O4630

Other fossil fuels

Rail

FC_TRA_RAIL_E

Motor gasoline (excluding biofuel portion)

O4652XR5210B

Other fossil fuels

Rail

FC_TRA_RAIL_E

Other kerosene

O4669

Other fossil fuels

Rail

FC_TRA_RAIL_E

Fuel oil

O4680

Other fossil fuels

Rail

FC_TRA_RAIL_E

White spirit and special boiling point industrial spirits

O4691

Other fossil fuels

Rail

FC_TRA_RAIL_E

Petroleum coke

O4694

Other fossil fuels

Domestic navigation

FC_TRA_DNAVI_E

Solid fossil fuels

C0000X0350-0370

Other fossil fuels (Domestic navigation)

Domestic navigation

FC_TRA_DNAVI_E

Liquefied petroleum gases

O4630

Other fossil fuels (Domestic navigation)

Domestic navigation

FC_TRA_DNAVI_E

Other kerosene

O4669

Other fossil fuels (Domestic navigation)

Domestic navigation

FC_TRA_DNAVI_E

Other oil products n.e.c.

O4699

Other fossil fuels (Domestic navigation)

International navigation

INTMARB

Kerosene-type jet fuel (excluding biofuel portion)

O4661XR5230B

Other fossil fuels (International navigation)

International navigation

INTMARB

Lubricants

O4692

Other fossil fuels (International navigation)

International navigation

INTMARB

Other oil products n.e.c.

O4699

Other fossil fuels (International navigation)

Rail

FC_TRA_RAIL_E

Solid fossil fuels

C0000X0350-0370

Solid fossil fuels

Road

FC_TRA_ROAD_E

Total

TOTAL

Road

Rail

FC_TRA_RAIL_E

Total

TOTAL

Rail

Domestic navigation

FC_TRA_DNAVI_E

Total

TOTAL

Domestic navigation

International navigation

INTMARB

Total

TOTAL

International navigation

Domestic aviation

FC_TRA_DAVI_E

Total

TOTAL

Domestic aviation

International aviation

INTAVI

Total

TOTAL

International navigation

Pipelines

FC_TRA_PIPE_E

Total

TOTAL

Pipelines

Not sepcified

FC_TRA_NSP_E

Total

TOTAL

Not sepcified

Total final consumption

FC_E

Total

TOTAL

Total final consumption

Transport final consumption

FC_TRA_E

Total

TOTAL

Transport final consumption

Table 3: Original and harmonised labels for the FF55-MIX scenario used to report activity and energy demand (EC, 2021d). To note, the original label ‘Intra-EU aviation’ refers to passenger transport activity, ‘Domestic aviation’ to final energy consumption, ‘Inland waterways and domestic maritime’ refers to both freight and passenger transport activity. ‘International maritime’ and ‘International aviation’ refer to the energy demand for international bunkers.

Original label

Harmonised label

Road

Road

Passenger cars

Cars

Buses and coaches

Buses and coaches

Powered two-wheelers

Powered two-wheelers

Heavy goods and light commercial vehicles

Heavy goods and light commercial vehicles

Rail

Rail

Inland waterways and domestic maritime

Domestic navigation

International maritime

International navigation

Domestic aviation

Domestic aviation

Intra-EU aviation

Domestic and intra-EU aviation

International aviation

International aviation

Table 4: Original and harmonised labels for the historical GHG emission inventories sent by countries to the UNFCCC and the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism (EU Member States) as made available by the EEA (EEA, 2024f). To note, EU-27 domestic aviation and domestic navigation always correspond to the sum of the corresponding emissions for each member state.

Original label

Harmonised label

1.A.3.b.i - Cars

Cars

1.A.3.b.ii - Light duty trucks

Vans

1.A.3.b.iii - Heavy duty trucks and buses

Heavy duty vehicles

1.A.3.b.iv - Motorcycles

Powered two-wheelers

1.A.3.b.v - Other Road Transportation

Other road

1.A.3.c - Railways

Rail

1.A.3.d - Domestic Navigation

Domestic navigation

1.D.1.b - International Navigation

International navigation

1.A.3.a - Domestic Aviation

Domestic aviation

1.D.1.a - International Aviation

International aviation

1.A.3.e - Other Transportation

Other transportation

Table 5: Original and harmonised labels for the GHG emissions projections that Member States report as required by the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action ((EU) 2018/1999). The dataset is made available by the EEA.

Original label

Harmonised label

1.A.3.b. Road transportation

Road

1.A.3.c. Railways

Rail

1.A.3.d. Domestic navigation

Domestic navigation

IB.Navigation

International navigation

1.A.3.a. Domestic aviation

Domestic aviation

IB.Aviation

International aviation

1.A.3.e. Other transportation

Other transportation

Table 6: Original and harmonised labels for air pollutant emission data contained in the EU emission inventory report 1990-2021 under the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (Air Convention) and made available by the EEA (EEA, 2023e).

Original label

Harmonised label

Road transport: Automobile road abrasion

Road non-exhaust

Road transport: Automobile tyre and brake wear

Road non-exhaust

Road transport: Gasoline evaporation

Evaporation

Road transport: Passenger cars

Cars

Road transport: Light duty vehicles

Vans

Road transport: Heavy duty vehicles and buses

Heavy duty vehicles and buses

Road transport: Mopeds & motorcycles

Powered two-wheelers

Railways

Rail

National navigation (shipping)

Domestic navigation

International inland waterways

International inland waterways

Domestic aviation LTO (civil)

Domestic aviation LTO

International aviation LTO (civil)

International aviation LTO

International maritime navigation

International navigation

Domestic aviation cruise (civil)

Domestic aviation cruise

International aviation cruise (civil)

International aviation cruise

Other, Mobile (including military, land based and recreational boats)

Other mobile

Table 7: Projections data reported to the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) according to a ‘With Additional Measures’ (WAM) scenario (when available). Original labels refer to the NFR 14/Guidelines 2014. Recently, new guidelines have been made available and more detailed sector categories are available (EMEP, 2023).

Original label

Harmonised label

1A3bvi AM

Road non-exhaust

1A3bvii AM

Road non-exhaust

1A3b AM

Road

1A3bi AM

Cars

1A3bii AM

Vans

1A3biii AM

Heavy duty vehicles

1A3biv AM

Powered two-wheelers

1A3bv AM

Evaporation

1A3acde AM

Off-road transport