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In this study, wherever possible, the values obtained from historic time-series are combined with the values obtained from available scenarios or porjections, relying on modelling exercises. To note, however, that it is not always possible to represent past and future data consistently due to differences in accounting methodologies as well as the granularity of the datasets. As an example, Passenger Activity, in the passenger transport activity section is reported for Domestic and International intra-EU maritime in the historic time-series and for Domestic Navigation in the scenario. For this reason, we reported historic and scenario data in two separate figures. This study relies mainly on two scenarios that are briefly described below. To note also, that the projections shown in this study, illustrate one of the possible way trends may evolve. Actual developments will be influenced by a large number of factors, such as the international context, prices, and policies.
Fit for 55 scenario (F55-MIX)
The Fit for 55 scenarios are three policy scenarios which serve as common tool to analyse the impacts of the various initiatives of the European Green Deal policy package. In this study, we rely on the MIX scenario which, even though it obviously cannot fully represent the most recent policies approved or announced at EU or national level, we considered it to be the closest to the current context. The scenario is described as follows:
“MIX: relying on both carbon price signal extension to road transport and buildings and strong intensification of energy and transport policies. With its uniform carbon price, it reflects either an extended and fully integrated EU ETS or an existing EU ETS and a new ETS established for road transport and buildings with emission caps set in line with cost-effective contributions of the respective sectors. Maritime transport sector is assumed to be included in the existing EU ETS in MIX” (EC, 2024f).
The MIX scenario is coherent with reducing GHG emission by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels (EEA, 2023f).
With additional measure scenario (WAM)
The WAM scenario relies on projections reported by Member States under Article 18 of the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union, whereby each MS developed an integrated national energy and climate plan (EU, 2018b). The resulting EU dataset is therefore a compilation of 27 different projections, rather than the result of a single modelling exercise. A comparison with such modelling exercise and the recent scenario developed by the Commission can be found here (EEA, 2023f).
WAM refers to the ‘With Additional Measures’ scenario (WAM) which is a compilation of 27 different projections, rather than the result of a single modelling exercise. The WAM scenario includes not only all policies and measures that were adopted or implemented at the time of reporting, but also all measures planned to reach the targets of the European Grean Deal, for the five dimensions of the Energy Union: decarbonisation, energy security, energy efficiency, internal energy market, and research, innovation & competitiveness (EC, 2024e). The definition of these ‘additional measures’ is, however, rather flexible and the way this is adopted is heterogeneous across Member States. To note, as before, EU-27 domestic aviation and domestic navigation always correspond to the sum of the corresponding emissions for each member state (EEA, 2023d). A comparison with such scenarios developed by member states and the recent MIX-FF55 developed by the Commission can be found in the Trends and Projections Report (EEA, 2023f).
Labelling
In this study several different datasets have been combined. To provide a coherent picture across the different sections and figures, the labels used in the original datasets have been harmonised. The following tables provide an overview of the original and the harmonised labels for each dataset used in this study along with the essential information regarding their definition. The reader is referred to the documentation of the datasets for the full descriptions and the corresponding accounting methodologies for transport activity, energy consumption, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions. To note that, because of the different granularity of the datasets as well as different accounting methodologies, it is not possible to have consistency across the difference chapters (see also Eurostat, 2022). As an example, it is not possible to provide final energy consumption, GHG and pollutant emissions considering the same sector definitions used to report activity. The time-series reported for each figure, correspond to the full extent available in the original data.
Table 1: Original and harmonised labels for the data obtained from the 2024 Statistical Pocketbook (EC, 2024d) and used to report historical passenger and freight transport data. ‘Road’ includes national and international haulage by vehicles registered in the EU-27 until 2004 and from 2005 onwards, the activity performed by European drivers within the EU territory. ‘Sea’ and ‘Air’ refer to only domestic and international intra-EU-27 freight and passenger transport, as specified in the harmonised labels. To note that the accounting methodology for these sectors in the Statistical Pocketbook is different from the methodology used in Eurostat. The Statistical Pocket book considers a 50-50 approach (i.e in the case of international intra-EU flights 50% of all flights (incoming + outgoing) are attributed to the country of origin and 50 % of the flights are attributed to the country of destination). Eurostat, on the other hand uses a different methodology based on the activity performed in the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ): the activity is allocated proportionally to the countries, according to the distance passed in the EEZ of each country. The term “Oil pipelines” indicates the infrastructure used to move or petroleum products.
Original label | Harmonised label |
---|---|
Road | Road |
Passenger Cars | Cars |
Buses & Coaches | Buses and coaches |
Powered 2-wheelers | Powered two-wheelers |
Railways | Rail |
High speed rail | High-speed rail |
Tram & Metro | Tram and metro |
Rail | Rail |
Inland Waterway | Inland Waterway |
Sea | Domestic and intra-EU maritime |
Air | Domestic and intra-EU aviation |
Oil Pipeline | Oil pipeline |
Table 2: Original and harmonised labels for the data obtained from the Eurostat’s complete energy balances (Eurostat, 2024) and used to report historic final energy consumption per sector and per fuel. To note, sector-fuel combinations that are labelled with the same harmonised label are grouped in a single category.
Sector name | Sector code | Fuel name | Fuel code | Harmonised label |
---|---|---|---|---|
Road | FC_TRA_ROAD_E | Renewables and biofuels | RA000 | Biofuels |
Domestic aviation | FC_TRA_DAVI_E | Renewables and biofuels | RA000 | Biofuels (Domestic aviation) |
International aviation | INTAVI | Renewables and biofuels | RA000 | Biofuels (International aviation) |
Rail | FC_TRA_RAIL_E | Renewables and biofuels | RA000 | Biofuels |
Domestic navigation | FC_TRA_DNAVI_E | Renewables and biofuels | RA000 | Biofuels (Domestic navigation) |
International navigation | INTMARB | Renewables and biofuels | RA000 | Biofuels (International navigation) |
Road | FC_TRA_ROAD_E | Electricity | E7000 | Electricity |
Rail | FC_TRA_RAIL_E | Electricity | E7000 | Electricity |
Domestic navigation | FC_TRA_DNAVI_E | Fuel oil | O4680 | Fuel oil (Domestic navigation) |
International navigation | INTMARB | Fuel oil | O4680 | Fuel oil (International navigation) |
Road | FC_TRA_ROAD_E | Gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel portion) | O4671XR5220B | Diesel |
Rail | FC_TRA_RAIL_E | Gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel portion) | O4671XR5220B | Diesel |
Domestic navigation | FC_TRA_DNAVI_E | Gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel portion) | O4671XR5220B | Diesel (Domestic navigation) |
International navigation | INTMARB | Gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel portion) | O4671XR5220B | Diesel (International navigation) |
Road | FC_TRA_ROAD_E | Motor gasoline (excluding biofuel portion) | O4652XR5210B | Gasoline |
Domestic navigation | FC_TRA_DNAVI_E | Motor gasoline (excluding biofuel portion) | O4652XR5210B | Gasoline (Domestic navigation) |
International navigation | INTMARB | Motor gasoline (excluding biofuel portion) | O4652XR5210B | Gasoline (International navigation) |
Domestic aviation | FC_TRA_DAVI_E | Kerosene-type jet fuel (excluding biofuel portion) | O4661XR5230B | Kerosene-type jet fuel (Domestic navigation) |
International aviation | INTAVI | Kerosene-type jet fuel (excluding biofuel portion) | O4661XR5230B | Kerosene-type jet fuel (International navigation) |
Road | FC_TRA_ROAD_E | Liquefied petroleum gases | O4630 | LPG |
Road | FC_TRA_ROAD_E | Natural gas | G3000 | Natural gas |
International navigation | INTMARB | Natural gas | G3000 | Natural gas (International navigation) |
Road | FC_TRA_ROAD_E | Naphtha | O4640 | Other fossil fuels |
Road | FC_TRA_ROAD_E | Other kerosene | O4669 | Other fossil fuels |
Road | FC_TRA_ROAD_E | Fuel oil | O4680 | Other fossil fuels |
Road | FC_TRA_ROAD_E | White spirit and special boiling point industrial spirits | O4691 | Other fossil fuels |
Road | FC_TRA_ROAD_E | Other oil products n.e.c. | O4699 | Other fossil fuels |
Domestic aviation | FC_TRA_DAVI_E | Aviation gasoline | O4651 | Other fossil fuels (Domestic aviation) |
Domestic aviation | FC_TRA_DAVI_E | Motor gasoline (excluding biofuel portion) | O4652XR5210B | Other fossil fuels (Domestic aviation) |
Domestic aviation | FC_TRA_DAVI_E | Gasoline-type jet fuel | O4653 | Other fossil fuels (Domestic aviation) |
Domestic aviation | FC_TRA_DAVI_E | Other kerosene | O4669 | Other fossil fuels (Domestic aviation) |
Domestic aviation | FC_TRA_DAVI_E | Gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel portion) | O4671XR5220B | Other fossil fuels (Domestic aviation) |
International aviation | INTAVI | Aviation gasoline | O4651 | Other fossil fuels (International aviation) |
International aviation | INTAVI | Motor gasoline (excluding biofuel portion) | O4652XR5210B | Other fossil fuels (International aviation) |
International aviation | INTAVI | Gasoline-type jet fuel | O4653 | Other fossil fuels (International aviation) |
International aviation | INTAVI | Other kerosene | O4669 | Other fossil fuels (International aviation) |
International aviation | INTAVI | Gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel portion) | O4671XR5220B | Other fossil fuels (International aviation) |
International aviation | INTAVI | Liquefied petroleum gases | O4630 | Other fossil fuels (International aviation) |
Rail | FC_TRA_RAIL_E | Liquefied petroleum gases | O4630 | Other fossil fuels |
Rail | FC_TRA_RAIL_E | Motor gasoline (excluding biofuel portion) | O4652XR5210B | Other fossil fuels |
Rail | FC_TRA_RAIL_E | Other kerosene | O4669 | Other fossil fuels |
Rail | FC_TRA_RAIL_E | Fuel oil | O4680 | Other fossil fuels |
Rail | FC_TRA_RAIL_E | White spirit and special boiling point industrial spirits | O4691 | Other fossil fuels |
Rail | FC_TRA_RAIL_E | Petroleum coke | O4694 | Other fossil fuels |
Domestic navigation | FC_TRA_DNAVI_E | Solid fossil fuels | C0000X0350-0370 | Other fossil fuels (Domestic navigation) |
Domestic navigation | FC_TRA_DNAVI_E | Liquefied petroleum gases | O4630 | Other fossil fuels (Domestic navigation) |
Domestic navigation | FC_TRA_DNAVI_E | Other kerosene | O4669 | Other fossil fuels (Domestic navigation) |
Domestic navigation | FC_TRA_DNAVI_E | Other oil products n.e.c. | O4699 | Other fossil fuels (Domestic navigation) |
International navigation | INTMARB | Kerosene-type jet fuel (excluding biofuel portion) | O4661XR5230B | Other fossil fuels (International navigation) |
International navigation | INTMARB | Lubricants | O4692 | Other fossil fuels (International navigation) |
International navigation | INTMARB | Other oil products n.e.c. | O4699 | Other fossil fuels (International navigation) |
Rail | FC_TRA_RAIL_E | Solid fossil fuels | C0000X0350-0370 | Solid fossil fuels |
Road | FC_TRA_ROAD_E | Total | TOTAL | Road |
Rail | FC_TRA_RAIL_E | Total | TOTAL | Rail |
Domestic navigation | FC_TRA_DNAVI_E | Total | TOTAL | Domestic navigation |
International navigation | INTMARB | Total | TOTAL | International navigation |
Domestic aviation | FC_TRA_DAVI_E | Total | TOTAL | Domestic aviation |
International aviation | INTAVI | Total | TOTAL | International navigation |
Pipelines | FC_TRA_PIPE_E | Total | TOTAL | Pipelines |
Not sepcified | FC_TRA_NSP_E | Total | TOTAL | Not sepcified |
Total final consumption | FC_E | Total | TOTAL | Total final consumption |
Transport final consumption | FC_TRA_E | Total | TOTAL | Transport final consumption |
Table 3: Original and harmonised labels for the FF55-MIX scenario used to report activity and energy demand (EC, 2021d). To note, the original label ‘Intra-EU aviation’ refers to passenger transport activity, ‘Domestic aviation’ to final energy consumption, ‘Inland waterways and domestic maritime’ refers to both freight and passenger transport activity. ‘International maritime’ and ‘International aviation’ refer to the energy demand for international bunkers.
Original label | Harmonised label |
---|---|
Road | Road |
Passenger cars | Cars |
Buses and coaches | Buses and coaches |
Powered two-wheelers | Powered two-wheelers |
Heavy goods and light commercial vehicles | Heavy goods and light commercial vehicles |
Rail | Rail |
Inland waterways and domestic maritime | Domestic navigation |
International maritime | International navigation |
Domestic aviation | Domestic aviation |
Intra-EU aviation | Domestic and intra-EU aviation |
International aviation | International aviation |
Table 4: Original and harmonised labels for the historical GHG emission inventories sent by countries to the UNFCCC and the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism (EU Member States) as made available by the EEA (EEA, 2024f). To note, EU-27 domestic aviation and domestic navigation always correspond to the sum of the corresponding emissions for each member state.
Original label | Harmonised label |
---|---|
1.A.3.b.i - Cars | Cars |
1.A.3.b.ii - Light duty trucks | Vans |
1.A.3.b.iii - Heavy duty trucks and buses | Heavy duty vehicles |
1.A.3.b.iv - Motorcycles | Powered two-wheelers |
1.A.3.b.v - Other Road Transportation | Other road |
1.A.3.c - Railways | Rail |
1.A.3.d - Domestic Navigation | Domestic navigation |
1.D.1.b - International Navigation | International navigation |
1.A.3.a - Domestic Aviation | Domestic aviation |
1.D.1.a - International Aviation | International aviation |
1.A.3.e - Other Transportation | Other transportation |
Table 5: Original and harmonised labels for the GHG emissions projections that Member States report as required by the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action ((EU) 2018/1999). The dataset is made available by the EEA.
Original label | Harmonised label |
---|---|
1.A.3.b. Road transportation | Road |
1.A.3.c. Railways | Rail |
1.A.3.d. Domestic navigation | Domestic navigation |
IB.Navigation | International navigation |
1.A.3.a. Domestic aviation | Domestic aviation |
IB.Aviation | International aviation |
1.A.3.e. Other transportation | Other transportation |
Table 6: Original and harmonised labels for air pollutant emission data contained in the EU emission inventory report 1990-2021 under the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (Air Convention) and made available by the EEA (EEA, 2023e).
Original label | Harmonised label |
---|---|
Road transport: Automobile road abrasion | Road non-exhaust |
Road transport: Automobile tyre and brake wear | Road non-exhaust |
Road transport: Gasoline evaporation | Evaporation |
Road transport: Passenger cars | Cars |
Road transport: Light duty vehicles | Vans |
Road transport: Heavy duty vehicles and buses | Heavy duty vehicles and buses |
Road transport: Mopeds & motorcycles | Powered two-wheelers |
Railways | Rail |
National navigation (shipping) | Domestic navigation |
International inland waterways | International inland waterways |
Domestic aviation LTO (civil) | Domestic aviation LTO |
International aviation LTO (civil) | International aviation LTO |
International maritime navigation | International navigation |
Domestic aviation cruise (civil) | Domestic aviation cruise |
International aviation cruise (civil) | International aviation cruise |
Other, Mobile (including military, land based and recreational boats) | Other mobile |
Table 7: Projections data reported to the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) according to a ‘With Additional Measures’ (WAM) scenario (when available). Original labels refer to the NFR 14/Guidelines 2014. Recently, new guidelines have been made available and more detailed sector categories are available (EMEP, 2023).
Original label | Harmonised label |
---|---|
1A3bvi AM | Road non-exhaust |
1A3bvii AM | Road non-exhaust |
1A3b AM | Road |
1A3bi AM | Cars |
1A3bii AM | Vans |
1A3biii AM | Heavy duty vehicles |
1A3biv AM | Powered two-wheelers |
1A3bv AM | Evaporation |
1A3acde AM | Off-road transport |