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Environmental information systems
Most wildfires in Europe are started by human activities but climatic conditions determine their intensity and impact. Soaring temperatures, tinder-dry forests and gusting winds are trademark fire weather conditions. Raging wildfires and choking smoke are a growing threat to human lives, property and energy infrastructure in Europe. They can also affect water quality, threaten biodiversity, release large amounts of greenhouse gases, cause soil erosion and spoil the landscape. Yet wildfires can also do some good, reducing insect populations and the amount of fuel available for future fires, which sometimes helps to restore balance to fragile forest ecosystems adapted to wildfires.
Key messages
Forest fires largely affect southern Europe and increasingly central and even northern Europe.
The number of days with high fire danger is projected to increase in Europe, in particular under a high-emissions scenarios. By far the highest absolute values and the largest increases are projected for southern Europe, but increases are also anticipated for central Europe.
Days with fire danger exceeding a threshold
Definition
This index reports the total number of days per year with a critical level of fire danger. Fire danger is based on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which is one of the most commonly used fire indices globally. It is based on a numerical rating of the potential frontal fire intensity and combines the rate of fire spread with the amount of fuel being consumed. The calculation of the FWI requires several meteorological input variables.
FWI values are classified into several fire danger classes. According to the classification of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), FWI values in the ranges 11.2-21.3, 21.3-38 and 38-50 represent ‘moderate’, ‘high’ and ‘very high’ fire risks, respectively. However, different classifications are used at national levels. The index presented here shows the annual number of days with high fire danger conditions (defined as daily FWI values above 30 in the underlying Copernicus Climate Change Service (CS3) Climate Data Store (CDS) data set).
Index factsheet (ETC/CCA Technical Paper): Days with fire danger exceeding a threshold
Relevance
The index is relevant for fire risk management related to forestry, infrastructure, human health, and urban and regional planning.
Past and projected changes
The annual number of days with high fire danger is projected to increase in Europe, whereby higher emissions scenarios are associated with larger increases. By far the highest absolute values and the largest increases are projected for southern Europe, but central Europe is also expected to experience increases. FWI values in northern Europe are projected to exceed the chosen threshold for high fire danger only rarely, even though large forest fires have recently occurred in this region. The uncertainty in future projections for this index is larger than for most other indices, which reflects the complex computation of this index involving the consideration of several essential climate variables.
Further information (European Climate Data Explorer): Fire weather index — Monthly mean, 1979-2020; Fire weather index — days with high fire danger, 2011-2099
Annual days with high fire danger (FWI value > 30) for the European land area and sub-regions
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