Current situation and projected changes in actual aridity in Europe

The top panel shows the 1971-2000 mean values based on the median of four E-HYPE hydrological simulations. The central row shows the ensemble median of projected values for the near and far future. The projected relative changes of the ensemble median compared with the 1971-2000 reference period are reported on the bottom row. The maps show the gridded values at a resolution of 0.11 ° × 0.11 ° resolution. An ensemble median is used to filter out the very local discrepancies among the four simulations. The ensemble is composed of four model simulations.