The probabilistic implications for global temperature increase up to year 2400

• Europe

The FAIRSiMCaP pathways shown are those for the B2 baseline scenario based on a climate sensitivity that assumes the 1.54.5 oC uncertainty range for climate sensitivity (IPCC TAR), being a 90 % confidence interval of a lognormal distribution. Shown are the median (thick solid line) and 90 % confidence interval boundaries (dashed lines), as well as the 1, 10, 33, 66, 90, and 99 % percentiles (borders of shaded areas). Probability density function is based on Wigley and Raper, 2001.