Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in Europe

The transport sector is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union and has shown little progress in emission reduction in recent decades. Despite efforts such as increasing the deployment of electric vehicles and promoting low-carbon fuels, transport emissions have only declined slightly since 2005, with a temporary reduction in 2020 due to COVID-19. Estimates of 2024 indicate a small increase in GHG emissions from transport of 0.7%, compared with 2023 levels. Member States project that domestic transport emissions will meet 1990 levels in 2030. International aviation and maritime emissions are projected to increase further.

Figure 1. Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in Europe

Reducing emissions is one of the greatest challenges in achieving a sustainable transformation of the EU’s mobility systems, as highlighted in the EEA’s annually updated report on Sustainability of Europe’s mobility systems. The EU’s domestic GHG transport emissions show a weak downward trend since 2005. The most significant drop occurred in 2020 due to effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Emissions rebounded again in 2021 and 2022, and following a one-year reduction in 2023 appear to have grown again in 2024. Preliminary data estimates this growth in 2024 to be 0.7% higher than 2023 levels.

According to their national emission projections, Member States expect a general decrease in transport emissions over the next decades. These projections differentiate between the expected emission reductions from current policies and measures, and the additional reductions that planned measures can generate. The requirements for the projections are established in the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action Regulation.

By 2030, current policies and measures are projected to deliver GHG emissions from transport that would reach 1990 levels. With additional measures, those emissions would be 13% below 1990 levels. Most planned policies and measures in the transport sector focus on promoting low-carbon fuels or zero-emission technologies, as well as encouraging a modal shift to public transport and active mobility modes.

Among the domestic transport categories, emissions from domestic navigation and rail have decreased, while domestic aviation has increased since 1990. They are projected to remain relatively stable in the coming years. Only road transport emissions are projected to decrease.

Figure 2. Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in the EU, by transport mode and scenario

Road transport constitutes the highest proportion of overall transport emissions. In 2023, it emitted 73% of all EU’s transport GHG emissions (including international bunkers). However, a majority of implemented and planned measures at EU level will address road transport, such as the emission reduction targets established under the Regulations on light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles, along with a series of other initiatives.

The greatest increases up to 2030 are projected for aviation and international maritime transport. This continues the trend in emissions from both activities, which have grown since 1990. With road transport emissions set to decline, aviation and maritime emissions are therefore expected to constitute a higher proportion of transport sector emissions in the coming years.

The years impacted by Covid-19 were an exception to the trends described above. Aviation was particularly affected by the pandemic, with international aviation emissions 58% lower in 2020 than in 2019. However, the reduction was temporary. Air traffic emissions rose by 25% in 2021 and by 57% in 2022. This growth pace slowed down in 2023 and was significantly lower, compared to 2022 levels. Flight numbers are expected to return to 2019 levels by 2025/2026.

Supporting information

Definition

This indicator shows historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector, as well as emissions projected up to 2035 under scenarios in which policies currently in place (‘with existing measures’) and planned (‘with additional measures’) in the EU Member States (EU-27) are implemented. The disaggregated level assessment illustrates trends and projections in key transport sub-sectors.

It covers IPCC source categories 1.A.3, 1.D.1.a and 1.D.1.b (as used in GHG emission inventories).

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

The indicator uses information from three EEA data sets: the greenhouse gas emissions inventory, approximated estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and greenhouse gas emissions projections.

The aggregated level assessment uses historical and projected GHG emissions for the transport sector as a whole: this is a sum of IPCC categories 1.A.3 (transport), 1.D.1.a (international aviation) and 1.D.1.b (international maritime transport).

The disaggregated level assessment uses historical and projected GHG emissions for various transport modes: road transport (IPCC category 1.A.3.b), railway transport (1.A.3.c), domestic navigation (1.A.3.d), international maritime transport (1.D.1.b) and aviation (1.A.3.a and 1.D.1.a).

Projections cover the period 2015-2035 (the historic years in the projections show values used for calibrating the projection). Two distinct projection scenarios are developed by the Member States, based on different levels of implementation of climate mitigation policies: the ‘with existing measures’ scenario includes policies already adopted, while the ‘with additional measures’ scenario includes planned policies and national targets.

Methodology for gap filling

No methodology for gap filling has been specified.

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Policy/environmental relevance

Context description

The European Green Deal (COM(2019) 640 final) sets out the aim to achieve a carbon neutral EU by 2050. This requires the decarbonisation of all sectors. In its proposal for the Climate Law (COM(2020) 80 final), the European Commission proposed to increase the intermediate GHG emission reduction target for 2030 to 55%, accepted by the European Council at the end of 2020.

In December 2020, the Commission published ‘Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy’ (COM(2020) 789 final), laying out its vision to ensure that the EU transport system can achieve a green transformation.

The transport sector is responsible for nearly a quarter of Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, this sector has proven difficult to decarbonise, and has not shown the same decreases in GHG emissions since 1990 as other sectors. Therefore, it is important to track this sector in detail and project changes in GHG emissions based on the reductions possible with policy measures that have already been adopted or are planned in the EU Member States.

In the implementation of the 2030 climate and energy framework, commercial aviation (all airlines operating in Europe) is covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, while the rest of the transport sector (excluding international shipping) is covered by the Effort Sharing Regulation. The indicator allows the contributions of the transport sector to meeting targets set out in both these pieces of legislation to be assessed in detail.

Targets

Targets not defined for this indicator.

Metadata

DPSIRTopicsTagsTemporal coverageGeographic coverage

TypologyUN SDGsUnit of measureFrequency of dissemination

Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in Europe

Figure 1. Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in Europe

Figure 2. Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in the EU, by transport mode and scenario

Supporting information

Methodology for indicator calculation

Methodology for gap filling

Methodology references

Context description

Targets

Related policy documents

Methodology uncertainty

Data sets uncertainty

Rationale uncertainty

Metadata

References and footnotes