The probabilistic implications for global temperature increase up to year 2400

Figure Created 12 Nov 2009 Published 12 Nov 2009 Last modified 29 Nov 2012
Above preindustrial levels for pathways stabilising at 450 and 550 ppm CO2equivalent concentration levels (upper row) and the pathways that peak at 510 and 550 ppm respectively (lower row)


Additional information

The FAIRSiMCaP pathways shown are those for the B2 baseline scenario based on a climate sensitivity that assumes the 1.54.5 oC uncertainty range for climate sensitivity (IPCC TAR), being a 90 % confidence interval of a lognormal distribution. Shown are the median (thick solid line) and 90 % confidence interval boundaries (dashed lines), as well as the 1, 10, 33, 66, 90, and 99 % percentiles (borders of shaded areas). Probability density function is based on Wigley and Raper, 2001.

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