The probabilistic implications for global temperature increase up to year 2400
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Created 12 Nov 2009
Published 12 Nov 2009
Last modified 07 Jun 2017
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Climate change adaptation
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Above preindustrial levels for pathways stabilising at 450 and 550 ppm CO2equivalent concentration levels (upper row) and the pathways that peak at 510 and 550 ppm respectively (lower row)
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The FAIRSiMCaP pathways shown are those for the B2 baseline scenario based on a climate sensitivity that assumes the 1.54.5 oC uncertainty range for climate sensitivity (IPCC TAR), being a 90 % confidence interval of a lognormal distribution. Shown are the median (thick solid line) and 90 % confidence interval boundaries (dashed lines), as well as the 1, 10, 33, 66, 90, and 99 % percentiles (borders of shaded areas). Probability density function is based on Wigley and Raper, 2001.
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For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/the-probabilistic-implications-for-global-temperature-increase-up-to-year-2400 or scan the QR code.
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