ETS, ESD, LULUCF and aviation emission trends and projections, 1990-2035

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Historic trends from 1990 to 2016 are represented by solid lines. The 2015–2016 trend for Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) emissions is approximated (preliminary estimates). Projections from 2015 until 2035 are represented by dashed lines. The scenario considered is 'with existing measures' (WEM). Annual targets and ETS caps are represented by bullets.

Methodology

Based on ETS data from the European Union Transaction Log (EUTL), as well as data reported by Member States under the Monitoring Mechanism Regulation (Regulation (EU) No 525/2013):
• 1990-2015 historic trends from national greenhouse gas inventories submitted by 10/08/2016;
• 2016 approximated inventories submitted by 31/07/2017
• projections submitted by Member States in 2017.
Pre-2005 trends for ETS and ESD emissions are based on an allocation of 1990-2004 GHG inventory data to either the ETS or non-ETS sectors, at source category level.
Projections for ETS and ESD are reported by source categories. Only for Poland, the separation of ETS GHG emissions into source categories was partly carried out by applying average sectoral percentages to total ETS GHG emissions.
For the period 2005-2015, ESD emissions are calculated by subtracting ETS emissions (including EEA estimates for the period 2005 to 2012 to reflect the current scope of the EU ETS) and CO₂ emissions from domestic aviation (IPCC source category 1.A.3.a) from total GHG emissions.