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Indicator Specification
Transport is one of the main sources of greenhouse gases and also gives rise to significant air pollution, which can seriously damage human health and ecosystems. Reducing demand would consequently reduce freight transport's environmental burden. Decoupling the need for freight transport from GDP growth is only indirectly linked to environmental impact.
The relevance of the modal split policy for environmental impact of freight transport arises from differences in environmental performance (resource consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, pollutant and noise emissions, land consumption, accidents etc.) of transport modes. These differences are becoming smaller on a tonne-km basis, which makes it increasingly difficult to determine the direct and future overall environmental effects of modal shifting. Additionally the differences in performance within specific modes can be substantial as for example old trains versus new trains. The total environmental effect of modal shifting can in fact only be determined on a case-by-case basis, where local circumstances and specific local environmental effects can be taken into account (e.g. transport in urban areas or through sensitive areas). The magnitude of environmental effects from modal shifting may be limited, as modal shift is only an option for small market segments. Opportunities for modal shifting depend amongst others on the type of goods lifted - e.g. perishable goods or bulk goods - and the specific transport requirements for these goods.
The outlook presents plausible future of transport developments in pan-European region and can be used for estimation of fright transport impact on environment (particularly when it comes to transport contribution to climate change). It helps to assess achievability of targets and identify appropriate policy response options for making transportation more sustainable.
Definition: Generally the indicator 'emissions of ozone precursors' tracks trends in anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors: nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, methane and non methane volatile organic compounds, each weighted by their tropospheric ozone-forming potential. The outlook form IEA/SMP model provides information only for nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide in transport sector.
Model used: IEA/SMP
Ownership: World Business Council for Sustainable Development
Temporal coverage: 1990 - 2050
Geographical coverage: OECD Europe: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom; OECD North America: USA, Canada, Mexico; Former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan; Eastern Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Serbia and Montenegro; India; China
The volume of the fright transport is measured in the tonne-kilometre (tkm) traveled, which represents the movement of one tonne over a distance of one kilometre.
GDP unit is billion US dollars.
The large number of non binding policy instruments have been developed under fora such as Environment for Europe process, the European Council of Ministers of Transport (ECMT) and the UNECE/WTO Transport, Health and Environment Pan-European Programme (The PEP). The PEP was set up to address the key challenges to achieve more sustainable transport patterns and a closer integration of environmental and health concerns into transport policies.
The EU has set itself the objective to reduce the link between economic growth and freight transport demand ('decoupling') in order to achieve more sustainable transport.
Reducing the link between transport growth and GDP is a central theme in EU transport policy for reducing the negative impacts from transport:
Shifting freight from road to water and rail is an important strategic element in the EU transport policy. The objective was first formulated in the Sustainable Development Strategy ("SDS"). In the review of the T&E integration strategy in 2001 and 2002, the Council states that the modal split should remain stable for at least the next ten years, even with further traffic growth. In the White Paper on the Common Transport Policy (CTP) "European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to Decide", the Commission proposes a number of measures aimed at the modal shift.
The White Paper on the Common Transport Policy also says that common transport policy alone will not provide all the answers. It must be part of an overall strategy integrating sustainable development, to include: a) economic policy and changes in the production process that influence demand for transport; b) land-use planning policy and in particular town planning; c) social and education policy; d) urban transport policy; e) budgetary and fiscal policy to, to link the internalisation of external, and especial environmental, costs with competition of trans-European network; f) competition policy, to ensure, in line with the objectives of high-quality public services, and in particularly in rail sector, that the opening-up of market is not harmed by the dominant companies already present on market; g) research policy for transport in Europe.
Motorways of the sea are alternative routes which could relieve bottlenecks on land. The member States are jointly invited to establish transnational maritime links. (TEN)
The European Neighborhood Policy stressed that generating more trade and tourism between the Union and its neighbours, requires efficient, multimodal and sustainable transport systems. EU should develop an Actions plan for cooperation with its neighbors to improve the physical transport networks connecting the Union with neighboring countries, to step up aviation relations with partner countries with the aim to open up markets and to co-operate on safety and security issues. The Action Plans will also contain specific provisions to address the vulnerability of transport networks and services vis-A-vis terrorist attacks. The highest attention will be paid to enhance the security of air and maritime transport.
EECCA Environmental Strategy recognizes the need to incorporate environmental concerns into transport policies and sets this action as one of the Strategy objectives.
European Union Strategy for Sustainable Development (A Sustainable Europe for a Better World
WTP: White Paper on the Common Transport Policy (European transport policy for 2010: time to decide)
UNECE/WHO Transport, Health and Environment Pan-European Programme
The European Neighborhood Policy
Structural goals and targets
Global
Implement transport strategies for sustainable development (WSSD)
Pan-European
- ... "develop transport infrastructure further through ... networks, better traffic management ... and intermodal approach" (ECMT, Council of Ministers, 1997)
EU
- Maintain 35% rail modal share for freight in EU10 by 2015 (2001 White Paper)
- Increase railway freight share from 8 to 15% by 2020 (2001 White Paper + rail industry)
- A single European railway system (2001 White Paper + rail industry)
- "...a shift in transport use from road to rail, water and public passenger transport .. [so] the share of road transport in 2010 is no greater than in 1998" (EU Sustainable Development Strategy, 2001)
EECCA
- incentives for sustainable transport (EECCA Strategy)
- modernization of transportation facilities, including use of less energy intensive transport modes (EECCA Strategy)
Efficiency targets
Pan-European
- Promoting demand-side management and modal shift (the PEP )
EU
- Decouple transport growth significantly from GDP (6th EAP)
- "...a switch to more efficient and cleaner forms of transport including better organization and logistics" (6EAP)
EECCA
-...emphasis on demand management" (EECCA Strategy)
Link to other policy goals and targets
Pan-European
- Integration of environment and health into transport policy
-"..reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector
- "..Better integration of land-use and transport planning."
- "develop transport infrastructure further through networks, better traffic management. "
- Extension of pan-European transport corridors to neighboring areas (2004 Santiago de Compostela Conference)
- TEN established by 2020 (884/2004/CE)
EU
- 140g CO2 average passenger car fleet emissions by 2008
120g CO2 by 2012 (EC/industry agreement)
- Noise from transport is reduced and is no longer presents a health concern
- "introduction of road pricing" (EU Sust. Dev. Strategy, 2001)
- "promoting measures to reflect the full environmental costs in the price of transport" (6EAP)
- Promote more balanced regional development (EU 2001 Sust. Dev. Strategy)
- Link sea, inland water and rail transport
- Improve efficiency of intermodal services (2001 White Paper on Transport)
EECCA
- Develop and implement national transport strategies for sustainable development to: improve affordability, efficiency, convenience, GHG emissions, urban air quality, health (EECCA Strategy)
- Introduce vehicle and fuel standards (EECCA Strategy)
The projections for the volume of fright transport and GDP are taken from the IEA/WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) model. To cover pan-European region these data were extracted from the publicly available IEA/SMP model spreadsheet (version 1.6) for the following geographical areas: OECD Europe, Eastern Europe, and Former Soviet Union.
Outlook for the modal split share for fright transport (for all types of vehicles presented in the section definition) in total inland transport was extracted from the same model.
The model does not include any representation of economic relationships (e.g., elasticities) nor does it track costs. Rather, it is an "accounting" model, anchored by the "ASIF" identity:
Sectors / Modes | Vehicle Technologies/ Fuels | Regions | Variables |
Light-duty vehicles (cars, minivans, SUVs) * Medium trucks * Heavy-duty (long-haul) trucks * Mini-buses ("paratransit") * Large buses * 2-3 wheelers * Aviation (Domestic + Int'l) * Rail freight * Rail passenger * National waterborne (Inland plus coastal) * Int'l shipping | * Internal combustion engine: * Gasoline * Diesel * LPG-CNG * Ethanol * Biodiesel * Hybrid- Electric ICE (same fuels) * Fuel-cell vehicle * Hydrogen (With feedstock differentiation for biofuels and hydrogen) | * OECD Europe * OECD North America * OECD Pacific (Japan, Korea, Australia, NZ) * Former Soviet Union (FSU) * Eastern Europe * Middle East * China * India * Other Asia * Latin America * Africa | Passenger kilometres of travel * Vehicle sales (LDVs only) * Vehicle stocks * Average vehicle fuelefficiency * Vehicle travel * Fuel use * CO2 emissions * Pollutant emissions (PM, NOx, HC, CO, Pb) * Safety (road fatalities and injuries) |
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To answer the question of whether freight demand is being decoupled from economic growth we need to look at the intensity of freight transport relative to changes in real GDP. A reduction in intensity should signal relative decoupling. This has some implications on the interpretation one makes of the observed intensity values. GDP in constant prices simply takes away the effect of price increases from year X to year Y but it does not guarantee that GDP in year X for country A is comparable to GDP in country B (as year X is the result of price increases from previous years etc). Therefore, cross-regional comparisons of transport intensities based on real GDP may be relevant for trends (i.e. growth/changes over time) but not for comparing intensity values in specific years. If we are interested in knowing whether freight transport intensity is higher in one region than in another, GDP should ideally be measured in purchasing power parities. These are currency conversion rates that both convert to a common currency and equalize the purchasing power of different currencies (i.e. they eliminate the differences in price levels between countries).
It is arguable, however, whether purchasing power parities are the best currency unit for time-series analysis. One way to avoid such problems is to use population instead of GDP. This would in principle be appropriate for the comparison of intensities between countries as well as for looking at trends over time. It seems also more equitable. To respond to the question of whether or not we are decoupling transport demand from economic activity (i.e. looking at growth rates over time) we would still need to use GDP.
Auto | Air | Truck | Frt Rail | Pass Rail | Buss | Mini- bus | 2-3 wheel | Water | |
OECD regions | |||||||||
Activity (passenger or tonne km) | * | * | * | * | * | * | i | i | |
New vehicle characteristics (sales, fuel consumption) | * | ||||||||
Stock-average energy intensity | * | * | * | * | * | * | i | i | |
Calculation of energy use and vehicle CO2 emissions | * | * | * | * | * | i | i | i | |
Non-OECD regions | |||||||||
Activity (passenger or tonne km) | i | * | i | * | * | i | i | i | |
New vehicle characteristics (sales, fuel consumption) | i | | |||||||
Stock-average energy intensity | i | i | i | i | i | i | i | i | |
Calculation of energy use and vehicle CO2 emissions | i | * | i | * | * | i | i | i | * |
The relevance of the modal split policy for environmental impact of freight transport arises from differences in environmental performance (resource consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, pollutant and noise emissions, land consumption, accidents etc.) of transport modes. These differences are becoming smaller on a tonne-km basis, which makes it increasingly difficult to determine the direct and future overall environmental effects of modal shifting. Additionally the differences in performance within specific modes can be substantial as for example old trains versus new trains. The total environmental effect of modal shifting can in fact only be determined on a case-by-case basis, where local circumstances and specific local environmental effects can be taken into account (e.g. transport in urban areas or through sensitive areas). The magnitude of environmental effects from modal shifting may be limited, as modal shift is only an option for small market segments. Opportunities for modal shifting depend amongst others on the type of goods lifted - e.g. perishable goods or bulk goods - and the specific transport requirements for these goods.
Work specified here requires to be completed within 1 year from now.
Work specified here will require more than 1 year (from now) to be completed.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/freight-transport-demand-outlook-from-wbcsd or scan the QR code.
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