Impacts of Europe's changing climate - 2008 indicator-based assessment

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Impacts of Europe's changing climate

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EEA Report No 4/2008

This report is an update and extension of the 2004 EEA Report Impacts of Europe's changing climate. The main part of this report summarises the relevance, past trends and future projections for about 40 indicators (from 22 in the 2004 report). The report also addresses adaptation and the economics of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies and policies, and data availability and uncertainty.

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ISBN: 978-92-9167-372-8

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Figures used

Locations of significant changes in data series of physical and biological systems, shown together with surface air temperature changes over the period 1970-2004 Based on HadCRUT3 data

Length of frost-free period in selected European areas 1975-2007 Length of frost-free period in selected European areas 1975-2007

Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature, (b) global average sea level and (c) northern hemispheric snow cover for March-April All changes are relative to the period 19611990

Modelled conditions for summer tourism in Europe for 1961-1990 and 2071-2100

Percentage of Europe experiencing moderate drought conditions during the 20th century Expressed as standardized precipitation indices (SPI) for time scales of 12 months

The share of Trichoptera taxa sensitive to climate change in the European ecoregions Trichoptera taxa are species with restricted distribution ('endemic species'), species inhabiting the crenal zone (springs), that cannot move further upstream, and species adapted to low water temperatures (cold stenothermy) in European ecoregions

Average annual changes in fire danger level 1958-2006 Based on use of Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR)

Changes in soil organic carbon content across England and Wales between 1978 and 2003 The map shows the difference in soil organic carbon content

Phenological sensitivity to temperature changes In a study of 254 national records across nine countries, most phenological changes correlated significantly with mean monthly temperatures of the previous two months

Changes in the contribution of heavy rainfall to total precipitation 1961-2006

Change in colour index in southern North Sea from the 1950s until 2000s Data are from the Continuous Plankton Recorder

Northward movement of zooplankton between 1958-2005 The northward movement of zoo-plankton spanning five decades

Modelled change in mean temperature over Europe between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 Left: annual; middle: winter (DJF); right: summer (JJA) changes in oC for the IPCC-SRES A1B emission scenario averaged over 21 models (MMD-A1B simulations).

Projected relative change of annual maximum daily mean wind speed between 1961-2000 and 2050 using different models Data are calculated for 10 m height using the + 2 oC scenario for 2050 (IPCC-SRES A1B emission scenarios) and the reference climate (1961-2000) from three similar models (left) and one different model, MIROCHi (right).

Recordings of two tropical fish 1963-1996 Recordings of the migration of the tropical species silvery john dory (Zenopsis conchifer) and rosy dory (Cyttopsis roseus) 1963-1996

Projected changes in number of plant species in 2050 Results for stable area per grid cell, using the EuroMove model with HadCM2 A2 climate scenario.

Number of casualties caused by flood disasters in the EU 1970-2005 The figure shows the number of casualties caused by flood disasters in the EU, 1970-2005

Projected change in mean seasonal and annual river flow between 2071-2100 and the reference period 1961-1990 Simulations with LISFLOOD driven by HIRHAM HadAM3H/HadCM3 based on IPCC SRES scenario A2.

Modelled change in annual river flow between 1971-1998 and 1900-1970 The map is based on an ensemble of 12 climate models and validated against observed river flows.

Example of the adjustment of loss distribution as a consequence of changing risk Models can produce a probable maximum loss (PML) curve, a chart that is a function of the highest amount an insurer is set to lose at a range of return periods (years).

Heating degree days in Europe 1980-2005

Presence of Aedes albopictus (the tiger mosquito) in Europe in January 2008 Developed by Francis Schaffner (BioSys Consultancy, Zurich), in partnership with Guy Hendrickx/Ernst-Jan Scholte (AviaGIS, Zoersel, Belgium) and Jolyon M Medlock (Health Protection Agency, UK) for the ECDC TigerMaps project

Projected impact of climate change on the potential distribution of reptiles and amphibians in 2050 Projected data based on the Generalised Linear Model map using the HadCM3 A2 scenario for the 2050s are compared with the current situation.

Projections of energy demand for several time horizons in Europe

Observed and projected Arctic September sea-ice extent 1900-2100 Note: The retreat of the sea ice has been faster than predicted: Arctic September sea-ice extent from observations (thick orange line) together with the mean value (solid grey line) from 13 IPCC AR4 climate models and the variance (dotted black line) of models runs.

Rate of change of crop growing season length 1975-2007 The map shows the rate of change of crop growing season leght

Natural disasters in Europe 1980-2007 The figure shows the natural disasters in Europe 1980 - 2007

Observed change in spring snow-cover duration 1970-2004 The map shows the observed change in spring snow-cover duration 1970 to 2004 covering the Northern Hemisphere

Contribution of temperature increase to the change in ozone exceedance days between 1993-1996 and 2000-2004

Records of northern hemisphere temperature variation during the last 1 300 years Jansen, E.; Overpeck, J.; Briffa, K

Projected changes in hydropower production in Scandinavia

Projected changes in soil organic carbon for cropland 1990-2080 Predicted changes in soil organic carbon for croplands 1990–2080. The image on the left shows changes due to climate change only while the map on the right shows changes as a result of variations in net primary production and the advent of new technologies related to crop management (e.g. machinery, pesticides, herbicides, agronomic knowledge of farmers) and breeding (development of higher yielding varieties through improved stress resistance and/or yield potential) that result in yield increases.

Average extent of arctic sea ice in March and September 1979-2007 Arctic sea ice grows to its greatest yearly size in March and melts to its lowest size in September

Modelled soil moisture in Europe Left: example of a forecast of topsoil moisture (15 July, 2008), right: subsoil available water capacity derived from modelling data.

Change in the severity of river flow droughts in France 1960-2000

Impact of climate change on populations of European birds, 1980-2005 Weighted composite population trends under climate change were modelled as an index for two groups of widespread European land birds for 1980 to 2005, using climate envelope models

Sensitivity of cereal yields to climate change for maize and wheat A small increase in temperature has a positive impact on cereals yield, while a high increase (3-5 oC) has a negative impact

Change in the height of a 50-year return period extreme water level event to the end of the 21st century for different scenarios The water level is measured relative to the present day tide, due to changes in atmospheric storminess, an increase in mean sea level and vertical land movements

Decapod abundance in the central North Sea 1950-2005 Left: year vs

Current distribution range of the butterfly Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) and its host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta) The map shows the current distribution range of the butterfly Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) and its host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta

Projected global average sea-level rise 1990-2100 Six SRES scenarios are shown

Water temperatures in four selected European rivers and lakes in the 20th century Annual average water temperature in River Rhine (1909-2006), River Danube (1901-1998), Lake Võrtsjärv (1947-2006), and average water temperature in August in Lake Saimaa, Finland (1924-2000).

Summer 2003 (June-August) daily maximum temperature anomaly

Trends in annual precipitation across Europe between Jan 1960 and Jan 2012 The figure shows trends in annual precipitation across Europe between Jan 1960 and Jan 2012. The trends are calculated using a median of pairwise slopes algorithm (Sen, 1968 ) (Lazante, 1996). Black dots represent high confidence in the sign of the long-term trend in the box (if the 5th to 95th percentile slopes are of the same sign). Boxes which have a thick outline contain at least three stations. Area averaged annual time series of percentage changes and trend lines are shown below each map for one area in northern Europe (Blue line, 5.6o to 16.9oE and 56.2o to 66.2oN) and one in south-western Europe (red line, 350.6o to 1.9oE and 36.2o to 43.7oN). Refer to (Met Office, 2012) for full explanation of methodology

Current (2000) and projected (2100) forest coverage in Europe Modelled to evaluate the change of habitat suitability coverage of the ten most dominant European Forest Categories (EEA, 2006), used IPCC SRES A1B scenario and NCAR CCM3 model.

Flood losses per thousand of GDP in the EU 1970-2005 The figure shows flood losses per thousand of GDP in the EU 1970-2005

Simulated land average maximum number of consecutive dry days for different European regions (1860-2100) The 20th century (black), models simulations for IPCC SRES intermediate A1B (orange) and low B1 (green) emission scenarios

Sea-level changes in Europe October 1992-May 2007 Based on satellite data; trends in mm/year, inverted barometer included, seasonal signal removed

Increase in species richness on Swiss Alpine mountain summits in 20th century Endemic, coldadapted species are declining as pioneer species drive them out of their characteristic niches due warming conditions

Simulated land average maximum 5-day total precipitation for different European regions (1860-2100) The 20th century (black), models simulations for IPCC SRES intermediate A1B (orange) and low B1 (green) emission scenarios

Area of Greenland ice sheet melting 1979-2007 Note: The maps show the area of the Greenland ice sheet with at least one day of surface melting in summer. The diagram shows the cumulated melt area, which is defined as the annual total sum of every daily ice sheet melt area. For example, if a particular area is melting on 20 days in a given year, it is counted 20 times.

Projected change in damage of river floods with a 100-year return period between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990 Note: Model calculation using the IPCC SRES scenario A2 and NUTS2 level.

Sea surface temperature changes for the European seas 1982-2006

Observed temperature change over Europe 1976-2006

Modelled summer soil moisture (1961-1990) and projected changes (2071-2100) over Europe Simulated soil moisture by ECHAM5/T106L31 for the baseline period (1961-1990) (left) and relative changes in % under the IPCC A2 scenario (2071-2100) (right).

Percentage change of weekly salmonella cases by 1 oC temperature increase The figure shows the percentage change of weekly salmonella cases 1 degree Celcius temperature increase

Latitudinal shifts in northern range margins in the United Kingdom for selected groups of animal species over the past 40 years Results for 16 taxonomic groups of animal species are given for three levels of data subsampling (recorded, green; wellrecorded, orange; heavily recorded, blue)

Relationship between projected distribution space of the butterfly Titania fritillary (Boloria titania) and its host plant American bistort (Polygonum bistorta) for 2080 Global change scenarios based on storylines developed within the EUfunded project ALARM (Settele et al., 2005, Spangenberg 2007, www.alarmproject.net).

Soil erosion risk assessment for Europe for the year 2000 The map shows the soil erosion risk assessment for Europe for the year 2000

Meteorological water balance in selected parts of Europe 1975-2007 Surplus means positive values of meteorological water balance.

Estimated changes of the ice mass in Greenland 1992-2006 Note: The rectangles depict the time period of the observations (horizontal) and the upper and lower estimates of mass balance for that period (vertical), calculated by different techniques as marked with colour codes

Relative abundance of warm-water to cold-water flatfish species Data are shown for four different seas and three sections of the North Sea, depending on mean annual SST

Natural disasters in Europe during 1980-2007 Most of the casualties were elderly people who died in the 2003 summer heat wave (surmortality).

The linear trend in surface temperature over Europe 1958 - 2001 Linear trend (oC/50 years) calculated from ERA40 data for the period 1958 to 2001

Area of multi-year Arctic sea ice in March 1957-2007 Note: The area of thick, multi-year sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is decreasing

$Modelled remains of the Alpine glacierisation (climatic accumulation area) according to an increase in summer air temperature of +1 to +5 °C. The total of 100% refers to the ice cover of the reference period (1971–90). The 100%-marks of the other lines refer to the fraction of glacierisation of the corresponding Alpine country. Reading example: A rise in summer air temperature of 3 °C would reduce the Alpine ice cover (red curve) to about 20% of the glacier cover of the reference period (1971–90). The corresponding glacier remains of Switzerland (blue, dashed line) amounts to about 30%, whereas in Austria (black, dashed line) only about 7% of the glacier cover of the reference period is left.$ Modelled remains of the glacier cover in the European Alps for an increase in average summer air temperature of 1 to 5 oC Modelled remains of the Alpine glacierisation (climatic accumulation area) according to an increase in summer air temperature of +1 to +5 °C. The total of 100% refers to the ice cover of the reference period (1971–90). The 100%-marks of the other lines refer to the fraction of glacierisation of the corresponding Alpine country. Reading example: A rise in summer air temperature of 3 °C would reduce the Alpine ice cover (red curve) to about 20% of the glacier cover of the reference period (1971–90). The corresponding glacier remains of Switzerland (blue, dashed line) amounts to about 30%, whereas in Austria (black, dashed line) only about 7% of the glacier cover of the reference period is left.

Observed changes in warm spells and frost days indices 1976-2006

Potential alcohol level at harvest for Riesling in Alsace (France) 1972-2003 The figure shows the potential alcohol level at harvest for Riesling in Alsace

Storm index for various parts of Europe 1881-2005 Positive values of the index mean higher storminess.

Modelled precipitation change between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 Left: annual; middle: winter (DJF); right summer (JJA) changes % for the IPCC-SRES A1B emission scenario averaged over 21 models (MMD-A1B simulations).

Sea surface temperature anomaly for period 1870-2006 Data (oC) show the difference between annual average temperatures and the period 1982-2006 mean in different European seas

Number of days with water temperature higher than 23 oC in the river Rhine (Lobith, the Netherlands) 1909-2003

Modelled three-monthly fire danger levels in Europe for 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 and change between these periods Based on the IPCC SRES high emissions A2 scenario and the HIRAM model

Areas of possible establishment of Aedes albopictus (the tiger mosquito) in Europe for 2010 and 2030 Developed by Francis Schaffner (BioSys Consultancy, Zurich), in partnership with Guy Hendrickx/Ernst-Jan Scholte (AviaGIS, Zoersel, Belgium) and Jolyon M Medlock (Health Protection Agency, United Kingdom) for the ECDC TigerMaps project

Modelled number of people flooded across Europe's coastal areas in 1961-1990 and in the 2080s The map shows the modelled number of people flooded across Europe's coastal areas

Cumulative specific net mass balance of glaciers from all European glaciated regions 1946-2006

Occurrence of flood events in Europe 1998-2008 The map shows the number of flood events in Europe from 1998 to 2008

News and articles

Forests, health and climate change Forests are essential to our survival and well-being. Forests clean our air, our water, our soil and they regulate our climate, amongst many other things. Trees and forests are not always associated with urban landscapes. However, there too they provide invaluable, often invisible, services. Simply by acting as 'green oasis' in our concrete jungles, they offer recreation and health services for many European citizens.

Disasters in Europe: more frequent and causing more damage The number and impacts of disasters have increased in Europe in the period 1998-2009, a new report by the European Environment Agency (EEA) concludes. The report assesses the frequency of disasters and their impacts on humans, the economy and ecosystems and calls for better integrated risk disaster management across Europe.

Europe's coasts: reconciling development and conservation Europe’s coastal zones are under increasing pressure from erosion, pollution, climate change, urbanisation and tourism. Such pressures threaten entire ecosystems — vital not only for wildlife but also for the economy and human well-being. The European Environment Agency (EEA) takes a closer look at the state of coastal ecosystems and policy responses to the pressures affecting them.

The Alps: Europe’s cherished but endangered mountains As the ‘water towers of Europe’, the Alps play a crucial role in sustaining the social and economic wellbeing of millions of people living in vast lowland areas. A complex and vulnerable ecosystem, they represent Europe’s central landmark.

"Climate change: act and adapt" at Green Week 2009 2009 will be a critical year in the battle against climate change, with negotiations on a global agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol due to conclude at the Copenhagen climate conference in December.

Climate change: diverse threats call for a united response Climate change is happening and its effects are wide-ranging. While the worst effects may not hit Europe this year or next, we cannot afford to be complacent. Europeans must put in place timely, adequate and cost-effective adaptation measures.

EU strives for a system-wide response to climate change Climate change adaptation must be integrated into policies across all sectors and engage all levels of society. To achieve this, new frameworks and governance structures are needed.

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Geographic coverage

Albania , Austria , Belgium , Bosnia and Herzegovina , Bulgaria , Croatia , Cyprus , Czechia , Denmark , Estonia , Finland , Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, the (FYROM) , France , Germany , Greece , Hungary , Iceland , Ireland , Italy , Latvia , Liechtenstein , Lithuania , Luxembourg , Malta , Moldova , Netherlands , Norway , Poland , Portugal , Romania , Serbia , Slovakia , Slovenia , Spain , Sweden , Switzerland , Turkey , United Kingdom

Temporal coverage

2004-2008

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For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4 or scan the QR code.

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