Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe

Publication Created 24 Jul 2017 Published 17 Oct 2017
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Enhancing coherence of the knowledge base, policies and practices. The report assesses current practices and level of know-how, and highlights emerging innovative tools national, regional and local authorities are using to tackle the impacts of weather- and climate-related hazards.
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Publication Created 24 Jul 2017 Published 17 Oct 2017
1 min read
EEA Report No 15/2017
Enhancing coherence of the knowledge base, policies and practices. The report assesses current practices and level of know-how, and highlights emerging innovative tools national, regional and local authorities are using to tackle the impacts of weather- and climate-related hazards.

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    Figures used

    Length of station record available in the E-OBS dataset for daily max and daily min temperatures Length of station record available in the E-OBS dataset for daily max and daily min temperatures Stations available in the European Climate Assessment and Datasets (ECA&D) (with different lengths of records) for daily maximum and minimum temperature.
    Landslide susceptibility for weather induced landslides: ICG (left) and b) JRC models (right) Landslide susceptibility for weather induced landslides: ICG (left) and b) JRC models (right) A distinct difference can be observed between the two models, where JRC model in general defines larger areas being exposed to landslides than the ICG model. This already shows that classification of landslide zonation maps is subjective and depends on the choice of the experts. The classified hazard map of JRC is definitely more conservative although it does incorporate hotspots of known hazard such as north-west Scotland, which the ICG model does not. Red circles show possible hotspots. White colour represent region without landslide hazard.
    Overview of the notified State Aid programmes Overview of the notified State Aid programmes Overview of the notified State Aid programmes over the period 2006–2015 for all hazards covered (left); and for floods only (right)
    River floods on rivers Sava and Bosnia in Bosnia and Herzegovina River floods on rivers Sava and Bosnia in Bosnia and Herzegovina Left figure shows normal situation in the region and right figure shows extend of river flooding on 22 May 2014.
    Footprint of storm Xaver in December 2013 Footprint of storm Xaver in December 2013 The storm footprint is defined by considering the highest 3 seconds wind gust (in m/s) during a 72 hours period . Data are obtained from the Met Office Integrated Data Archive System (MIDAS).
    Participation of the EEA member countries in the 2016 EEA survey Participation of the EEA member countries in the 2016 EEA survey EEA survey was launched in early 2016 in order to gather updated information from countries regarding the status of integration of CCA/DRR at national or sub-national levels. Countries that responded to the survey: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, : Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland., Turkey. Countries that did not respond to the survey: Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Greece, Iceland, Latvia, Luxembourg, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, United Kingdom
    Overview of National datasets at European level Overview of National datasets at European level The figure shows an overview of data availability on historical landslides in Europe. Data are available almost for most European countries either from national databases (red) or regional databases (blue).
    Extent of the heat wave in 2015 in Europe Extent of the heat wave in 2015 in Europe Average temperature anomalies (°C) for Europe between 28 June 28 to 4 July. Baseline period is 1964–1993.
    Forest fire in Sweden Forest fire in Sweden Burnt area scars in Sweden in the 2014 fire season, and perimeter of the Västmanland fire
    Expected variations in abundance or activity of four landslide types, driven by the projected climate change Expected variations in abundance or activity of four landslide types, driven by the projected climate change Expected variations in abundance or activity of four landslide types, driven by the projected climate change.
    Drought impacts on public water supply and water quality for two drought severity levels Drought impacts on public water supply and water quality for two drought severity levels Drought risk maps with the likelihood of impact occurrence (LIO) in the impact categories Tourism and Recreation, Public Water Supply, Water Quality, Freshwater Ecosystems, and Terrestrial Ecosystems (columns) for three hazard levels of SPEI with −0.5: near normal, −1.5: severely dry, and −2.5: extremely dry.
    Recorded track of the medicane occurring in January 2014 Recorded track of the medicane occurring in January 2014 Medicane track from a high-resolution simulation of January 2014.
    Observed trends in warm days across Europe between 1960 and 2016 Observed trends in warm days across Europe between 1960 and 2016 How to read the map: Warm days are defined as being above the 90th percentile of the daily maximum temperature. Grid boxes outlined in solid black contain at least three stations and so are likely to be more representative of the grid box. A significant (at the 5 % level) long-term trend is shown by a black dot
    Total observed precipitation for the events of 30 May-2 June 2013 Total observed precipitation for the events of 30 May-2 June 2013 Map shows cumulative precipitation amount over the period between 30 May and 2 June 2013.
    State and trend of fire danger for the period State and trend of fire danger for the period The left panel shows the average SSR values during the period 1981 to 2010 whereas the right panel shows the linear trend in the same period.
    Locations of European tide gauges with length of records Locations of European tide gauges with length of records Colours represent different lengths of the datasets, ranging from less than 30 years (white) to over 100 years (black).
    Projected Forest fire risk in Europe Projected Forest fire risk in Europe Forest fire risk calculated for baseline period (1961-1990) and 2041-2070 (A1B emission scenario).
    Onset of the 2011 European drought, May 2011 Onset of the 2011 European drought, May 2011 The drought situation is described with Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index accumulated over 3-months periods (SPEI-3).
    Observed annual median and trend of the Mean Potential Hail Index (PHI) over the period 1951-2010 Observed annual median and trend of the Mean Potential Hail Index (PHI) over the period 1951-2010 Based on the logistic hail model (Mohr, Kunz, and Geyer, 2015) and reanalysis data from NCEP-NCAR (Kalnay, et al., 1996). Trends with significance below the 5% level are cross-hatched. Note that significant trends are only found for values below -5 PHI over the period.
    Observed trends in maximum annual five-day consecutive precipitation in winter and summer Observed trends in maximum annual five-day consecutive precipitation in winter and summer Grid boxes outlined in solid black contain at least three stations and so are likely to be more representative of the grid box. Significant (at the 5% level) long-term trend is shown by a black dot.
    Trends in summer soil moisture in Europe Trends in summer soil moisture in Europe Soil moisture content was modelled using a soil moisture balance model in the upper soil horizons (up to 1 m).
    Change in the frequency of flooding events under projected sea level rise Change in the frequency of flooding events under projected sea level rise This map shows the estimated multiplication factor, by which the frequency of flooding events of a given height changes between 2010 and 2100 due to projected regional sea relative level rise under the RCP4.5 scenario. Values larger than 1 indicate an increase in flooding frequency
    Observed trends in frequency and severity of meteorological droughts Observed trends in frequency and severity of meteorological droughts Trends in frequency (upper) and severity (lower) of meteorological droughts between 1950 and 2012. Trends are based on a combination of three different drought indices - SPI, SPEI and RDI accumulated over 12-month periods. Dots: trends significant at ≥ 95%.
    Projected change in 20 year return level minimum flow and deficit volumes due to climate change and changes in water use Projected change in 20 year return level minimum flow and deficit volumes due to climate change and changes in water use Differences between the end of the 21st century (SRES A1B scenario) and the control period (1961-1990) for minimum discharges (left) and change in occurrence of deficits (right) for climate change only (top row) and a combination of climate change and water use (bottom row).
    Model-based estimate of past change in summer low flows Model-based estimate of past change in summer low flows This map shows the ensemble mean trend in summer low flow from 1963 to 2000. ‘x’ denotes grid cells where less than three- quarters of the hydrological models agree on the direction of the trend.
    Projected change in the frequency of meteorological droughts Projected change in the frequency of meteorological droughts The maps show changes in the frequency of meteorological droughts for two future periods (2041-2070, left and 2071-2100, right) and for two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5, top and RCP8.5, bottom). Drought frequency is defined as the number of months in a 30 year period with the Standardised Precipitation Index accumulated over a 6 month period (SPI-6) having a value below -2.
    Deaths related to flooding in Europe Deaths related to flooding in Europe This map shows the number of deaths related to flooding per million inhabitants (cumulative over the period 1991–2015, with respect to 2015 population).
    Associations between temperature and mortality in four European cities Associations between temperature and mortality in four European cities Exposure-response associations between temperature and mortality in four European cities, together with related temperatures distributions. The shaded grey area delineates the 95 % empirical confidence interval. Solid grey vertical lines are minimum mortality temperatures and dashed grey vertical lines delineate the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile temperatures.
    Projected change in river floods with a return period of 100 years Projected change in river floods with a return period of 100 years 100-year daily peak flow (Q100). Relative change for the time slices 2006-2035, 2036-2065 and 2066–2095 compared to the ensemble mean of the baseline (1976–2005), based on an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCP8.5 scenarios. Data points with CV>1 are greyed out. (CV = coefficient of variation)
    Projected change in summer soil moisture Projected change in summer soil moisture Changes are presented as mean multi-model change between 1961-1990 and 2021-2050 using 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs); with red indicating drier and blue indicating wetter conditions.
    Projected changes in heavy precipitation in winter and summer Projected changes in heavy precipitation in winter and summer Projected changes in heavy precipitation (in %) in winter and summer from 1971-2000 to 2071–2100 for the RCP8.5 scenario based on the ensemble mean of different regional climate models (RCMs) nested in different general circulation models (GCMs).
    Projected changes in extreme wind speed based on GCM and RCM ensembles Projected changes in extreme wind speed based on GCM and RCM ensembles Ensemble mean of changes in extreme wind speed (defined as the 98th percentile of daily maximum wind speed) for A1B (2071–2100) relative to 1961–2000. Left: based on 9 GCMs. Right: based on 11 RCMs. Coloured areas indicate the magnitude of change (unit: m/s), statistical significance above 0.95 is shown by black dots.

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    Related indicators

    Economic losses from climate-related extremes Economic losses from climate-related extremes The total reported economic losses caused by weather and climate-related extremes in the EEA member countries over the period 1980-2015 amount to around EUR 433 billion (in 2015 Euro values). The average annual economic losses have varied between EUR 7.5 billion in the period 1980-1989, EUR 13.5 billion in the period 1990-1999, and EUR 14.3 billion in the period 2000-2009. In the period from 2010 to 2015 the average annual loss accounted to around EUR 13.3 billion.   The observed variations in reported economic loss over time are difficult to interpret since a large share of the total deflated losses has been caused by a small number of events. Specifically, more than 70 % of the economic losses was caused by only 3 % of all registered events.
    Wind storms Wind storms Storm location, frequency and intensity have shown considerable decadal variability across Europe over the past century, such that no significant long-term trends are apparent. Recent studies on changes in winter storm tracks generally project an extension eastwards of the North Atlantic storm track towards central Europe and the British Isles. Climate change simulations show diverging projections on changes in the number of winter storms across Europe. However, most studies agree that the risk of severe winter storms, and possibly of severe autumn storms, will increase for the North Atlantic and northern, north-western and central Europe over the 21st century.
    Heavy precipitation Heavy precipitation The intensity of heavy precipitation events in summer and winter have increased in northern and north-eastern Europe since the 1960s. Different indices show diverging trends for south-western and southern Europe. Heavy precipitation events are likely to become more frequent in most parts of Europe. The projected changes are strongest in Scandinavia and eastern Europe in winter.
    Meteorological and hydrological droughts Meteorological and hydrological droughts Drought has been a recurrent feature of the European climate. From 2006–2010, on average 15 % of the EU territory and 17 % of the EU population have been affected by meteorological droughts each year. The severity and frequency of meteorological and hydrological droughts have increased in parts of Europe, in particular in south-western and central Europe. Available studies project large increases in the frequency, duration and severity of meteorological and hydrological droughts in most of Europe over the 21st century, except for northern European regions. The greatest increase in drought conditions is projected for southern Europe, where it would increase competition between different water users, such as agriculture, industry, tourism and households.
    Forest fires Forest fires Fire risk depends on many factors, including climatic conditions, vegetation, forest management practices and other socio-economic factors. The burnt area in the Mediterranean region increased from 1980 to 2000; it has decreased thereafter. In a warmer climate, more severe fire weather and, as a consequence, an expansion of the fire-prone area and longer fire seasons are projected across Europe. The impact of fire events is particularly strong in southern Europe.
    River floods River floods Almost 1 500 floods have been reported for Europe since 1980, of which more than half have occurred since 2000. The number of very severe flood events in Europe increased over the period 1980–2010, but with large interannual variability. This increase has been attributed to better reporting, land-use changes and increased heavy precipitation in parts of Europe, but it is not currently possible to quantify the importance of these factors. Global warming is projected to intensify the hydrological cycle and increase the occurrence and frequency of flood events in large parts of Europe. Pluvial floods and flash floods, which are triggered by intense local precipitation events, are likely to become more frequent throughout Europe. In regions with projected reduced snow accumulation during winter, the risk of early spring flooding could decrease. However, quantitative projections of changes in flood frequency and magnitude remain highly uncertain.
    Global and European temperature Global and European temperature According to three different observational records of global average annual near-surface (land and ocean) temperature, the last decade (2006–2015) was 0.83 to 0.89 °C warmer than the pre-industrial average, which makes it the warmest decade on record. Of the 16 warmest years on record, 15 have occurred since 2000. The year 2015 was the warmest on record, around 1 °C warmer than the pre-industrial level, followed by 2014. The average annual temperature for the European land area for the last decade (2006–2015) was around 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest decade on record. Moreover, 2014 and 2015 were jointly the warmest years in Europe since instrumental records began. Climate models project further increases in global average temperature over the 21st century (for the period 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005) of between 0.3 and 1.7 °C for the lowest emissions scenario (RCP2.6) and between 2.6 and 4.8 °C for the highest emissions scenario (RCP8.5). All UNFCCC member countries have agreed on the long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C compared with pre-industrial levels and have agreed to aim to limit the increase to 1.5 °C. For the three highest of the four RCPs, global average temperature increase is projected to exceed 2 °C compared with pre-industrial levels by 2050. Annual average land temperature over Europe is projected to increase by the end of this century (2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000) in the range of 1 to 4.5 °C under RCP4.5 and 2.5 to 5.5 °C under RCP8.5, which is more than the projected global average increase. The strongest warming is projected across north-eastern Europe and Scandinavia in winter and southern Europe in summer. The number of warm days (those exceeding the 90th percentile threshold of a baseline period) have almost doubled since 1960 across the European land area. Europe has experienced several extreme heat waves since 2000 (2003, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2014 and 2015). Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), very extreme heat waves as strong as these or even stronger are projected to occur as often as every two years in the second half of the 21st century. The impacts will be particularly strong in southern Europe.
    Use of freshwater resources Use of freshwater resources While water is generally abundant in Europe, water scarcity and droughts continue to affect some water basins in particular seasons. The Mediterranean region and most of the densely populated river basins in different parts of Europe are hot spots for water stress conditions. During winter, some 30 million inhabitants live under water stress conditions, while the figure for summer is 70 million. This corresponds to 6 % and 14 % of the total population of Europe respectively. Around 20 % of total the population of the Mediterranean region live under permanent water stress conditions. More than half (53 %) of the Mediterranean population is effected by water stress during the summer.   At 46 % and 35 % respectively, rivers and groundwater resources provide more than 80 % of the total water demand in Europe.  Agriculture accounts for 36 % of total water use on an annual scale. In summer, this increases to about 60 %. Agriculture in the Mediterranean region alone accounts for almost 75 % of total water use for agriculture in Europe. Public water supply is second to agriculture, accounting for 32 % of total water use. This puts pressure on renewable water resources, particularly in high population density areas with no water coming from upstream.  Service sector has become one of the main pressures on renewable water resources, accounting for 11 % of total annual water use. Small Mediterranean islands in particular are under severe water stress conditions due to receiving 10-15 times more tourists than they have local inhabitants. 

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