2.2 Trends in the mobility system

All the actors and elements enabling the movement of people and goods in Europe are collectively referred to as the mobility system. Actors include vehicle manufacturers, citizens, service providers, construction firms and infrastructure operators (e.g. for rail activities, airports and seaports), along with their funding sources. This briefing highlights key environmental trends in the mobility system, focusing on passenger and freight activity, GHG emissions (in million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent — MtCO₂e) and air pollutants from sectors like road, rail, inland waterways, maritime operations and aviation.

Key policies

The key policies addressing the sustainability of the mobility system include the European Climate Law, the Fit for 55 package (aiming for a 55% reduction in EU-wide GHG emissions by 2030) and regulations focused on specific modes of transport like the Euro 6 and Euro 7 emission standards. Also relevant are the sustainable and smart mobility strategy, promoting the continued development of sustainable, smart and resilient solutions, as well as the zero pollution action plan, aiming to reduce pollution to levels not considered harmful to health and natural ecosystems by 2050.

Past trends (10-15 years)

Trends/developments show a mixed picture

In 2022, EU passenger transport activity had risen by 24.9% from 1995 (Figure 1), nearing pre-COVID levels. Freight transport grew 44.6% over the same period (Figure 2), with minimal COVID-related decline.

Transport accounted for 28.9% of EU-27 GHG emissions in 2022, up from 16.5% in 1990. Unlike other sectors, the transport sector's GHG emissions were substantially higher in 2022 than in 1990, with a 26% increase (Figure 3).

Policies targeting air pollutants have cut NO_x emissions by 51%, SO_x by 83%, methane by 75.6%, non-methane volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide by 90%, particulate matter with a diameter of 10μm or less by 46%, particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5μm or less by 58%, and black carbon by 70% (1990-2022). However, N₂O and NH₃ emissions increased by 35% and 118%, respectively, with aviation and shipping contributing to some of this growth.

Outlook (10-15 years)

Trends/developments are expected to show a mixed picture

Significant implementation challenges remain and must be solved to achieve sustainability in mobility in Europe. Meeting the EU’s climate and air quality goals will require transport to be electrified more quickly and more support for sustainable travel. To this end, stronger incentives are needed to make electricity more cost-competitive with fossil fuels.

At the same time, other policy tools — like tax breaks, subsidies, low-emission zones and consumer information — can encourage cleaner mobility, attract investment in infrastructure and promote sustainable behaviour. Better EU-wide planning and cooperation on hydrogen and sustainable fuels, alongside quicker renewable energy deployment and grid flexibility, can further support transport decarbonisation.

Among the transport modes, electrification is most advanced in light-duty road vehicles, with sales of new electric vehicles (EVs) in the EU rising by 37% from 2022 to 2023. However, heavy-duty vehicle, aviation and shipping electrification still face major hurdles in terms of technology, fuels and infrastructure.

From 2027, the Emissions Trading System 2 will extend carbon pricing to road transport and buildings. This is expected to help the transition to cleaner options. In parallel, reducing mobility demand and shifting to lower-impact modes can also cut particulate pollution and improve the system's sustainability.

Alongside decarbonisation, it will be important to continue addressing the challenges of non-exhaust EV emissions, the impacts of electricity generation and biofuel-related environmental concerns.

Prospects of meeting policy targets 2030/2050

2030: Partially on track to meet targets/highly uncertain

Transport's relative contribution (including from international bunkers) to overall GHG emissions in the EU-27 is expected to continue to grow through 2025 and then projected to decline. Transport emissions are expected to decrease by 14.3% by 2030 compared to 2022 levels.

At the same time, the expectation is that the EU will meet its 2030 target to reduce premature deaths due to air pollution, partly due to projected progress in the transport sector.

However, the zero-pollution target to reduce the share of people chronically affected by transport noise by 30% is not yet on track, with an expected decrease of only 19% by 2030.

2050: Partially on track to meet targets/highly uncertain

GHG emissions from transport are expected to decrease by 37.1% by 2050 compared to 2022 levels. Reaching the transport-related GHG emission target of a 90% reduction by 2050, compared to 1990, will require significant changes in how cars, heavy-duty vehicles, planes and ships are operated and fuelled; additionally, it will require changes to how different transport modes are prioritised. It will also rely on consistently developing charging and refuelling infrastructure, improved long-distance and cross-border rail services (including high-speed and night trains), and the maturity of new technologies like sustainable fuels for aviation and shipping.

Robustness

Historical data on GHG and air pollution from transport are based on inventories reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the EU under the EU Governance Regulation, the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution and the National Emission reduction Commitments Regulation.

The inventories undergo an annual process for quality assurance/quality-checking and review although uncertainties exist, especially for some compounds. Projections for 2030 and 2050 at EU level are fully consistent with data reported to the EU by Member States. Activity data are from the ‘EU transport in figures: Statistical Pocketbook’ from the Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport. Freight activity data are generally less uncertain compared to passenger data since they mostly stem from legal obligations.

Charts/maps

Figure 3. EU-27 GHG emissions from transport