2.3 Trends in the energy system

Modern societies rely on energy for essential needs such as heating, lighting, healthcare, food services, manufacturing, transport and telecommunications. These vital services depend on electricity, heating and transport service provision. To meet these societal needs, the energy system must be secure, affordable and clean. This briefing outlines how the EU energy system must be transformed to align with EU and national targets that aim to reduce harmful greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and dependency on insecure fossil fuel imports.

Key policies

To reduce the EU’s net GHG emissions by more than half by 2030 (compared with 1990) and to make the EU climate-neutral by 2050, in line with the European Climate Law, the revised Renewable Energy Directive sets a binding EU target to increase the share of renewable energy use to a minimum of 42.5% by 2030. Simultaneously, the recast Energy Efficiency Directive aims to reduce EU energy use by circa 12% by 2030, compared with business as usual.

These frameworks are supplemented by the Clean Industrial Deal and by revised EU rules for gas and electricity markets, for the ecodesign of products, for the energy performance of buildings, for new batteries and for affordable energy. Together, the regulations complement existing and new EU climate legislation, including the EU Emissions Trading System.

Past trends (10-15 years)

Improving trends/developments dominate

In the EU, the share of renewable energy sources has doubled since 2005, with almost a quarter of final energy use in 2023 coming from renewable sources (Figure 1). Progress was fastest in electricity provision; renewables now generate 45% of all electricity used in the EU and this percentage means that the EU is outperforming other regions in this area.

For heating and transport, renewables produced 26% and 11%, respectively, of all the energy required by 2023. Since 2005, the EU’s primary energy consumption has fallen by 19% and final energy consumption by 12%, respectively (Figure 2). This trend is due to more efficient renewable electricity, energy-saving measures, structural changes and warmer winters.

Outlook (10-15 years)

Trends/developments expected to show a mixed picture

Today, roughly three-quarters of all EU GHG emissions come from burning fossil fuels for energy. To reduce these emissions, improve energy security and ensure sustainability, governments are implementing a comprehensive EU legal framework.

Onshore wind and solar PV power are now cheaper than fossil fuels and battery costs are falling rapidly. This indicates clear opportunities to decarbonise electricity supply rapidly (Figure 3) and, thereby, also buildings and significant shares of transport and industry.

At the same time, there is ample scope to improve energy efficiency in all sectors. However, markets alone cannot drive this transformation, as carbon-neutral solutions often face disadvantages compared to fossil fuels that benefit from an existing and already amortised infrastructure.

There is a need to increase investments in renewables, grids, storage and interconnections to ensure the adequacy and flexibility of the electricity system. There is also a need to consolidate energy saving and efficiency measures, phase out fossil fuel subsidies, accelerate innovation and maximise transition synergies through integrated planning and cross-border cooperation.

Prospects of meeting policy targets 2030/2050

2030: Partially on track to meet targets/highly uncertain

To reach the 42.5% EU renewable energy target, the annual rate at which the EU switches to renewable sources of energy must more than double compared to the last decade. At the same time, electrification must be rolled out faster to all sectors. Energy efficiency must improve even more rapidly. There must be three times the annual reduction in primary energy consumption and six times the annual reduction in final energy consumption by 2030. Whether such progress can be delivered remains uncertain; it is subject to national ambitions and consistent national policies to ensure investment predictability and the alignment of policy signals across society.

2050: Partially on track to meet targets/highly uncertain

The EU energy transition will not be completed by 2030, and efforts to decarbonise energy-intensive sectors such as cement, steel and long-distance transport must continue on the pathway to 2050. Additionally, buildings are likely to require additional policy attention.

The transition will also require EU Member States to identify and address bottlenecks in material and component provision, take advantage of local opportunities (such as provided by local heat planning) and tackle potential shifts in environmental impacts. It will be crucial to ensure societal preparedness, climate-proof infrastructure and close innovation gaps. New policies should aim to encourage users to support the ongoing transformation, improve energy and material efficiency, promote walking, cycling and public transport and adopt shared-economy practices and healthier, more circular lifestyles.

Robustness

Renewable energy and energy efficiency data are based on national data transmitted to Eurostat under the Energy Statistics Regulation; they follow the methodology and definitions under the recast (EU) Renewable Energy Directive and Energy Efficiency Directive. Primary energy consumption denotes total energy use; final energy consumption represents the energy used by final consumers.

Charts/maps

Figure 1. Progress towards renewable energy source targets for the EU-27

Figure 2. Primary and final energy consumption in the EU-27

Figure 3. GHG emission intensity from electricity generation