2.1 Greenhouse gas emissions

Addressing climate change is one of the defining challenges of our times. The reduction of GHG emissions is vital to slow the rate of global warming and mitigate its impact on our environment, economy and health. This snapshot presents the evolution of net GHG emissions in the EU, covering emissions from activities such as energy production, industrial production, transport and agriculture and including carbon removals from the atmosphere and emissions from international transport as regulated by EU legislation.

Key policies

The European Climate Law (ECL) sets a binding target to achieve climate neutrality in the EU by 2050 at the latest. On the path towards net zero emissions, the ECL includes the target to reduce net GHG emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990, while an intermediate 90% reduction target for 2040 has been proposed by the European Commission (EC).

A robust legal framework (including binding GHG emission reduction targets under the Effort Sharing Regulation and carbon removal targets under the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Regulation for Member States), a Europe-wide EU Emissions Trading System, a detailed climate and energy governance framework and a comprehensive set of supplementary legislation addressing diverse sectors are all in place to support the achievement of these targets.

Past trends (10-15 years)

Improving trends/developments dominate

As policies to reduce GHG emissions have gradually been strengthened, the pace of annual emission reductions in the EU has doubled since 2005, resulting in the 2020 climate target having been reached and surpassed. As of 2023, net GHG emissions in the EU had fallen by more than a third since 1990 (Figure 1). At the same time, EU gross domestic product grew by more than 60%. As GHG emissions have continued to grow at a global scale, European progress on climate change mitigation demonstrates that it is possible to decouple GHG emission reductions from economic growth.

In the EU, progress in reducing GHG emissions is mainly being driven by shifts towards renewable energy sources, while progress in sectors such as agriculture and transport has been less pronounced (Figure 2). In the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, a significant reduction in carbon removals is observed (see also briefing 2.4 Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere).

Outlook (10-15 years)

Improving trends/developments expected to dominate

The year 2024 was the first calendar year that the average global temperature exceeded 1.5°C above its pre-industrial level. Accelerating climate change, with its clear impacts on society, the economy and nature, points to the need for expedited action towards climate neutrality. At the same time, the opportunity to act is narrowing.

In recent years, many building blocks have been put in place to reduce GHG emissions over the next decade. Promising zero-emission technologies, such as solar energy and electric vehicles, are being developed and adopted at an exponential rate, while an ambitious governance and legislative framework is now in place at the EU level. Going forward, it will be crucial to implement the legislative frameworks, promote investments and innovation and accelerate the phase-down of fossil fuels in order to reduce GHG emissions significantly in the EU.

Prospects of meeting policy targets 2030/2050

2030: Largely on track to meet target

To reach the 2030 target to reduce net GHG emissions by 55%, the rate at which annual GHG emissions are reduced must increase compared to the last 15 years. While the historical trends in the energy supply sector need to continue, substantial acceleration is needed in other sectors, notably transport and carbon removals by forests and soils. Figure 2 illustrates a significant gap between the 2023 emissions and the 2030 modelled outcomes for many sectors.

The binding policies, measures and sectorial targets within EU legislation establish a framework for achieving these reductions. Furthermore, aggregated GHG projections from Member States suggest that the policy measures that are currently in place alongside those that are planned are converging towards the 2030 target. However, achieving this goal will depend on whether the necessary investments are made and on the accelerated deployment and development of crucial zero-emission technologies.

2050: Partially on track to meet target / highly uncertain

To achieve climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest, the rapid pace of emission reductions necessary to meet the 2030 target must be maintained in the years that follow. While current available technologies can address the 2030 target, long-term emission reduction requires innovation focused on hard-to-abate emissions. Additionally, fostering behavioural changes can help mitigate transition costs.

The measures currently adopted and planned, as reported by Member States, fall short of ensuring that the 2050 climate neutrality target can be achieved. This is indicated by aggregated projections from Member States which point to a substantial gap in reaching climate neutrality.

Robustness

GHG historical data are based on GHG inventories reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to the EU under the EU Governance Regulation ((EU) 2018/1999). Although emission estimates are uncertain, GHGIs undergo a thorough process of quality assurance/quality checking and review on an annual basis.

Outlooks, on the other hand, are based on GHG projections data from Member States, as reported under the Governance Regulation. The uncertainty in the projections is higher than that in GHG inventories, but the estimates for 2030 and 2050 at the EU level are fully consistent with data reported to the EU by Member States.

Charts/maps

Figure 1. Total net GHG emissions in the EU (1990-2050) 

Figure 2. Sectoral progress towards 2030