2.4 Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the land sector commonly occurs when atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) is sequestered via biological processes and stored temporarily in vegetation, soils or wood products. Industrial CDR options, including processes that permanently store CO₂ in geological formations, are emerging but are still largely in pilot phases. They also tend to be more costly compared to CDR options in the land sector. This briefing looks mainly at terrestrial CDR as covered by the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation, in view of the available reporting data. The country profiles of Europe’s environment 2025 provide further information on national LULUCF trends.

Key policies

The economy-wide EU climate target is laid out in the EU Climate Law; it is a net target, meaning it includes both GHG emissions and removals.

For the land sector specifically, the revised LULUCF Regulation sets out an EU net removal target of generating additional net removals of -42 megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂e) by 2030 compared to the 2016-2018 annual average. Member States can allocate public funds earmarked for climate mitigation under LULUCF, for example through the common agricultural policy and on the basis of EU State aid rules.

In addition to this, the EU Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming Regulation provides new business opportunities for farmers and foresters by facilitating the certification of carbon removals in forests and soils, resulting from a change in land management practices that generate carbon removals and increase resilience.

Past trends (10-15 years)

Deteriorating trends/developments dominate

In 2023, the EU LULUCF sector provided a net carbon sink of -198Mt CO₂e_, offsetting about 6% of GHG emissions from other sectors (Figure 1). Forests and harvested wood products accounted for net carbon removals while cropland, grassland, wetlands and settlements were responsible for net GHG emissions. The status and trends for the LULUCF sector vary among Member States, as do the underlying drivers behind them.

The EU’s LULUCF carbon sink has declined significantly in the last decade: from 2014 to 2023, the average carbon removals were 30% lower compared to the previous decade.

The decline of the LULUCF sink is mainly due to a combination of interrelated factors that affects forests. These include higher harvest rates, ageing forests, increased natural disturbances and natural mortality, and reduced growth due to climate change effects.

Outlook (10-15 years)

Trend/developments expected to show a mixed picture

A wide range of options can increase carbon removals and decrease emissions from the LULUCF sector and deliver many environmental and socio-economic co-benefits. These include improved soil- and forest management, ecosystem restoration and protection, planting trees and sustainable biomass use. However, immediate action is essential as these measures’ benefits can take time to materialise.

For these options to be adopted successfully, Member States must put in place measures — such as to leverage financial investment and mitigate financial risk; improve monitoring, reporting and verification methodologies; and build capacity. In parallel, there is room to better streamline policy-, financial- and reporting frameworks related to land use and biomass.

Prospects of meeting policy targets 2030/2050

2030: Largely not on track to meet targets

Member States’ projections (Figure 2) indicate that the EU is not on track to reach its LULUCF targets: the target for 2030 is at considerable risk of not being met while several Member States face a challenge meeting their national LULUCF targets.

Various policies, programmes and strategies have been put in place both to increase carbon removals in the land sector and industrial CDR in the coming decades. Target-driven policies relating to LULUCF are still in their early phases. To scale up carbon removals in the coming decades, it will be crucial to progressively develop and implement a supporting policy framework, promote financial investments and encourage research, development and innovation.

2050: Partially on track to meet targets/highly uncertain

In addition to sharp reductions in GHG emissions, land and industrial CDR is expected to play a pivotal role in achieving the EU’s 2050 climate neutrality target. The European Commission (EC) expects the LULUCF sector to offset most residual emissions from other sectors by 2050, and to significantly contribute to the 2040 climate target.

Climate change and natural disturbances increase the risk of stored carbon being released into the atmosphere and affect carbon sinks, with potential legacy effects. As such, the LULUCF sink becomes less stable and predictable over time. Research and data developments will be essential to better understand various drivers, inform projections, identify solutions and support policy development on the nexus of climate change adaptation and mitigation over time.

Member States must take additional action to ensure that carbon removals can effectively contribute to climate mitigation in both the short and long term. Being able to ensure that mitigation strategies are successful will partially depend on long-term governance approaches. In turn, these must carefully consider biodiversity protection, sustainable biomass provision and steps to increase ecosystems’ resilience.

Robustness

The EU and its Member States annually report on anthropogenic GHG emissions and carbon removals in the LULUCF sector in accordance with international commitments and EU rules. The Governance Regulation requires the EU and its Member States to improve the quality of their LULUCF GHG inventories (GHGIs) and provides requirements for reporting and monitoring methods.

The EC regularly reviews national GHGIs in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidelines and EU rules. Gradual improvements in LULUCF inventory data quality will allow for a better understanding of changes in the uptake and release of CO₂. It will also allow countries to better design policies and measures, and evaluate their effectiveness. As such, enhanced reporting will be essential for improving policies over time.

Charts/maps

Figure 1. LULUCF net GHG emissions (+) and removals (-) for the EU-27 (1990-2023) in kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (ktCO₂e)

Figure 2. LULUCF reported projections of net GHG emissions (+) and removals (-) for the EU-27 (2022-2055)