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Briefing

What will the future bring when it comes to climate hazards? - Overview

Briefing Published 17 Nov 2021 Last modified 24 Jan 2023
3 min read
Photo: © © Dario Landi, Climate Change PIX /EEA
A carefully selected set of indices covering the main climate-related hazards for Europe has been put together from available data sources by experts in the field. These 32 indices are organised according to 16 hazards and are grouped into six categories consistent with the ‘climatic impact drivers’ adopted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. These categories and the key take-home messages from the EEA’s interactive report on Europe’s changing climate hazards are found below.

Key messages


  • Heat and cold. Mean air temperature will rise steadily across Europe. As a result, growing degree days and cooling degree days will increase, whereas heating degree days and days with frost will decrease. Hot extremes are expected to increase even faster than mean temperatures. Humid heatwaves, which pose a great risk to human health, are projected to increase rapidly across Europe. 

  • Wet and dry. Projected changes in annual precipitation are expected to differ considerably across regions and seasons. In northern Europe, annual precipitation and heavy rainfall are likely to increase, with droughts becoming less frequent. Mixed changes are expected for summer rainfall, flooding events, aridity and fire hazards. Central Europe is likely to experience lower summer rainfall, but also harsher weather extremes (heavy precipitation, river floods, droughts and fire hazards), with mixed changes in annual precipitation and aridity. In southern Europe, annual precipitation and summer rainfall are projected to decrease, whereas aridity, droughts and fire hazards are all likely to increase. Mixed changes are projected for heavy precipitation and river floods. 

  • Wind. Climate models anticipate relatively minor changes in mean wind speed. Storm intensity is projected to increase across Europe, but changes in the frequency are projected to differ across regions. 

  • Snow and ice. Snowfall is projected to decrease in central and southern Europe, whereas mixed changes are anticipated for northern Europe. Snow cover is projected to decrease across Europe. 

  • Coastal. Most coastal regions in Europe will experience further increases in mean and extreme sea levels, with the exception of the northern Baltic Sea, where land levels are still rising following the last ice age. 

  • Open ocean. Sea surface temperature is projected to increase in all European regional seas, with associated increases in marine heatwaves. Europe’s seas are also expected to become more acidic. 

32 climate indices for the 16 climate hazards, grouped into six hazard types, as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Sixth Assessment Report: 

Sundial

Projected changes in climate-related hazards across Europe during the 21st century (click on the hazards to access detailed information and the visualisations) 

 

Category

Hazard

Index name

Northern
Europe

Central
Europe

Southern
Europe

Heat and cold

Mean air temperature

Mean temperature

↗

↗

↗

Growing degree days

↗

↗

↗

Heating degree days

↘

↘

↘

Cooling degree days

↗

↗

↗

Extreme heat

Tropical nights

↗

↗

↗

Hot days

↗

↗

↗

Warmest three-day period

↗

↗

↗

Heatwave days based on apparent temperature

↗

↗

↗

Climatological heatwave days

↗

↗

↗

Days with Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) above a threshold

This index has increased in recent decades in central and southern Europe whereas no robust trend was detected for northern Europe. Projections are not currently available.

Frost

Frost days

↘

↘

↘

Wet and dry

Mean precipitation

Total precipitation

Annual: ↗

Summer: ⤨

Annual: ⤨

Summer: ↘

Annual: ↘

Summer: ↘

Heavy precipitation and river flood* 

 

Maximum consecutive
5-day precipitation

↗

↗

⤨

Extreme precipitation total

↗

↗

      →

Frequency of extreme precipitation

↗

↗

      →

River flood index using runoff

⤨

↗

⤨

Aridity

Aridity actual

↗

⤨

↗

Consecutive dry days

       →

↗

↗

Drought *

Duration of meteorological droughts

↘

⤨

↗

Magnitude of meteorological droughts

↘

↗

↗

Duration of soil moisture droughts

Increasing soil moisture droughts are projected for southern Europe. Constant or increasing droughts are projected for central Europe, and constant or decreasing droughts are projected for northern Europe.

Fire weather

Days with fire danger exceeding a threshold

       →

↗

↗

Wind

Mean wind speed

Mean wind speed

       →

      →

      →

Severe wind storm

Extreme wind speed days

Increasing frequency and intensity of storms is projected for northern and central Europe; decreasing storm frequency but increasing intensity is projected for southern Europe.

Snow and ice

Snow, glacier and
ice sheet

Snowfall amount

⤨

↘

↘

Period with snow water equivalent above threshold

↘

↘

↘

Coastal

Relative sea level

Relative sea level rise

↗ **

↗

↗

Coastal flood

Extreme sea level

↗ **

↗

↗

Open ocean

Mean ocean temperature

Sea surface temperature

↗

↗

↗

Marine heatwave

Duration of marine heatwaves

Projected increase in all European regional seas

Ocean chemistry: dissolved oxygen and ocean acidity*

Dissolved oxygen level

Most stations exhibit no robust trends in recent decades, but some stations in the Baltic Sea and the Greater North Sea show decreasing oxygen levels. Projections are not available.

Ocean pH level

Surface ocean pH levels are projected to decline (i.e., the water becomes more acidic) both in the open ocean and in enclosed seas.

 Legend:

↗

Increase throughout most of a region / Europe

↓

Decrease throughout most of a region / Europe

⤨

Increases as well as decreases in a region / Europe

→

No significant changes from the current situation 

Notes:

  • Information refers to a high emissions (or forcing) scenario (i.e., RCP8.5); lower emissions scenarios usually show the same direction of projected change, but lower magnitude and/or robustness.
  • ‘Europe’ refers to the land area of the 38 EEA member and cooperating countries (EEA-38) as of 1 February 2020. ‘Coastal’ indices refer to the coastline of EEA-38. ‘Open ocean’ indices refer to the European regional seas.
  • The three European subregions (‘Northern’, ‘Central’ and ‘Southern’) are mostly consistent with the three IPCC climate reference regions in the IPCC AR6 that cover the EEA-38 countries (NEU, WCE and MED; see Section 2.2 for details).
  • (*) This hazard category comprises two climatic impact driver categories from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
  • (**) Relative sea level and extreme sea level may decrease in the northern Baltic Sea due to isostatic adjustment.

 

Further information on the underlying data sets, calculation methods and visualisations used in this report is available in this background document. 

Acronyms and abbreviations, concepts and definitions

Chapters of the Europe's changing climate hazards report

  1. Heat and cold

  2. Wet and dry

  3. Wind

  4. Snow and ice

  5. Coastal

  6. Open ocean

                                                                               

Back to main page of the report

Related content

Related briefings

Briefing Europe’s changing climate hazards — about the report Europe’s changing climate hazards report lets users explore the latest data on 32 climate hazard indices. It provides the big picture and also the detailed information needed for smarter decision-making to prevent the worst impacts of climate change from affecting communities and regions across Europe. Here, we show how information can help Europe tackle the hazards created by man-made climate change.
Briefing Europe's changing climate hazards — an index-based interactive EEA report Climate change is happening and we need to get ready for more intense heatwaves, floods and storms, wildfires and water scarcity. Different climate-related hazards affect regions, sectors of the economy and members of society in different ways. Decision-makers need the best data and information to help them understand the imperatives and make the necessary preparations — adapted to the different scenarios and likely consequences, at European, national and sub-national levels. Europe’s changing climate hazards, an interactive index-based EEA report, brings it all together with an overview of past and projected changes in Europe’s most important climate hazards.

Related publications

See also

Page Imagining sustainable futures for Europe A co-creation project of the EEA and its country network Eionet
File Visualization of changing climate hazards and underlying data sources – Background document
File Projected changes in climate-related hazards across Europe during the 21st century
Page Open ocean — ocean chemistry: dissolved oxygen and ocean acidity The chemical properties of seawater, such as oxygen content, acidity and salinity, have significant impacts on the health of marine ecosystems. When carbon dioxide from the atmosphere dissolves in seawater, it forms carbonic acid, which makes the seawater more acidic. Furthermore, nutrient run-off from agricultural fertilisers can cause eutrophication of seawater and oxygen starvation, which is made worse by warming seas under climate change. Warming ocean temperatures, oxygen loss and ocean acidification have together been called climate change’s ‘deadly trio’.
Page Open ocean — mean ocean temperature The planet’s oceans are warming, and that has many implications. Changes in ocean temperature can have widespread effects on marine species and biodiversity, with direct and indirect impacts on both natural and human activities, from ecosystem services to the fishing industry. Higher ocean surface temperatures can increase water vapour in the atmosphere, which influences weather both at sea and over land. Ocean warming in coastal areas can trigger algal blooms and bacterial outbreaks, which can be dangerous to marine life, human health and industries relying on tourism, fisheries, etc.
Page Coastal — coastal floods Driven by rising sea levels, tidal swings and storm surges, coastal floods are a growing threat to buildings, energy and transport infrastructure, water supplies and human lives. Coastal defences (walls, breakwaters, artificial headlands) are generally designed to withstand sea levels within historical ranges (e.g. ‘once-in-a hundred-years’ floods). Projected changes in the frequency and intensity of coastal floods are a major threat to ecosystems and the population in low-lying coastal areas in northern and western Europe.
Page Coastal — relative sea level More than one third of the European population lives in coastal regions. Low-lying countries, islands and communities know from experience that rising sea levels are a major climate hazard. Higher relative sea levels and corresponding storm surges threaten property, infrastructure and lives. They can lead to coastal erosion and make surface water and groundwater unusable through saltwater intrusion, with knock-on effects for agriculture and coastal and land ecosystems. Local sea level rise can be strongly affected by human activities, such as groundwater extraction or soil compaction from buildings. Understanding all this is crucial not only for coastal planning, ecosystem management and protection but also for putting in place measures to protect transport, energy and other infrastructure.
Page National and transnational climate atlases in Europe Many European countries have developed national ‘climate atlases’ (or ‘climate portals’) with spatially explicit information on past and projected climate change. These atlases inform the development and implementation of climate change adaptation plans and strategies, and provide complementary information to pan-European sources, including the indices presented in the Europe’s changing climate hazards report and the European Climate Data Explorer. The national atlases often use more detailed models and observations, and they can contextualise information on the changing climate in terms of regional environmental and socio-economic conditions in the local language(s).
Page Open ocean — marine heatwave Heatwaves are not confined to land areas. Marine heatwaves are defined as prolonged periods of unusually high sea surface temperatures. They pose many challenges to ocean ecosystems, whereby marine organisms living in the upper ocean layer with limited abilities to move towards colder waters are at greatest risk. Marine heatwaves also jeopardise coastal communities that depend on fishing, aquaculture and ecotourism for their livelihoods.
File Acronyms and abbreviations, concepts and definitions
Folder Open ocean From this page you can access all the indices related to Open ocean.
Folder Coastal From this page, you can access all indices related to coastal hazards.
Folder Snow and ice From this page, you can access all the indices related to snow and ice hazards.
Page Wind — mean wind speed The wind’s influence spans the full range of human activities. Mean wind speed is a particularly relevant indicator for the wind energy sector, because even small changes can have considerable effects on renewable energy production and the industries and populations that depend on it.
Page Snow and ice — snow, glaciers and ice sheets Snow can be a good thing (winter sports) or a bad thing (transport hazards, damaged buildings). Changes in snow and ice conditions can also strongly influence ecosystems and have negative socio-economic impacts (tourism, transport, water management, hydropower generation, etc.). These impacts can be localised (ski resort snow coverage, restricted travel) but also dispersed (downstream water availability and flood risk).
Page Wind — severe windstorms Severe windstorms can cause widespread damage to forests, buildings, and transport and energy infrastructure. High winds at sea contribute to storm surges, which can be destructive for coastal regions. Storms were the costliest natural hazard in terms of insured losses in Europe, with the highest impacts in north-western Europe, especially in coastal areas.
Page Wet and dry — drought Droughts can last from weeks to several years. They can affect all regions in Europe, but the south is especially vulnerable because of the generally drier conditions in the baseline climate.
Page Wet and dry — mean precipitation So much of life — and people’s livelihoods — depends on rain falling at the right time and in the right amount. Too much or too little can be devastating. Precipitation is vital to natural and managed ecosystems and to water supply, energy production and of course farming. Low rainfall at the wrong time in the growing season can severely affect crops, groundwater recharge and soil quality. Decreases in rainfall could aggravate local or regional conflicts among the different water users (agriculture, energy production, industry, households and tourism).
Folder Wind From this page, you can access all indices related to wind hazards.
Page Heat and cold — frost days Frost and extreme cold play a major role in several sectors across Europe, including agriculture, forestry, construction, transport and tourism. The timing of frost, for example, can affect seasonal farming and cropping cycles in surprising ways (e.g. late spring frost before harvesting can be devastating for fruit trees, but some crops need frost during winter to stimulate flowering). Increases in freeze-thaw cycles, starting below 0 °C and warming during the day, can damage roads, buildings and other infrastructure.
Folder Wet and dry From this page, you can access all indices related to wet and dry hazards.
Folder Heat and cold From this page, you can access all indices on Heat and cold hazards.
Page Wet and dry — heavy precipitation and river floods Too much rain falling too fast can trigger floods and landslides. A tenth of Europe’s urban population is currently living in flood-risk zones (EEA, 2020: Healthy environment, healthy lives: how the environment influences health and well-being in Europe). Floods can be deadly and costly, destroying buildings, infrastructure (transport, energy, communication) and livelihoods for all in their path. Between 1980 and 2017, floods have taken some 4,300 lives and cost Europe’s economy more than €170 billion, representing nearly a third of the total damage from natural hazards (EEA, 2020: Economic losses from climate-related extremes in Europe). Whether a heavy precipitation event triggers a dangerous flood is also influenced by non-climatic factors, such as land use, changes to river basins and natural water flow characteristics (dams, changes of river beds, sealing surfaces) and urban planning.
Page Heat and cold — extreme heat Much of Europe has experienced intense heatwaves since 2000, with notable impacts on human health and socio-economic systems. Extreme heat is closely linked to higher death rates and hospital admissions and generally affects the well-being and productivity of workers. The death toll for the 2003 European heatwave alone is believed to have topped 70 000 (according to the World Meteorological Organization - (WMO, 2021: WMO atlas of mortality and economic losses from weather, climate and water extremes (1970-2019)). Urban areas are especially vulnerable to increasing heat stress because of the ‘urban heat island’ effect. Extreme heat also affects transport and energy infrastructure, agriculture and biodiversity, and it increases the likelihood of wildfires.
Page Wet and dry — aridity As average temperatures rise and rainfall patterns change, the stereotypical ‘arid’ regions of Europe may need a rethink. Increasing aridity is an important hazard for many ecosystems and economic sectors, including water management, agriculture, forestry and tourism. Unlike drought, aridity describes the long-term average dryness of a region, which leads to limited or low water content in the soil. Aridity can lead to soil erosion, salinisation and other forms of land degradation; it can also set off or exacerbate water-related conflicts in affected regions.
Page Wet and dry — fire weather Most wildfires in Europe are started by human activities but climatic conditions determine their intensity and impact. Soaring temperatures, tinder-dry forests and gusting winds are trademark fire weather conditions. Raging wildfires and choking smoke are a growing threat to human lives, property and energy infrastructure in Europe. They can also affect water quality, threaten biodiversity, release large amounts of greenhouse gases, cause soil erosion and spoil the landscape. Yet wildfires can also do some good, reducing insect populations and the amount of fuel available for future fires, which sometimes helps to restore balance to fragile forest ecosystems adapted to wildfires.
Page Heat and cold — mean air temperature It is now beyond question… Europe is getting hotter. Average surface air temperature gives a clear and consistent signal of global and regional climate change. It has a direct impact on natural ecosystems, agriculture, and human health and well-being. Rising temperatures affect all types of ecosystems through shifts in species distribution and population structure and increase the risk of species extinction. These changes can impact ecosystem services, such as carbon storage, and affect crop production. Higher temperatures also naturally increase the risk of arid conditions and droughts.
Disclaimer

The country assessments are the sole responsibility of the EEA member and cooperating countries supported by the EEA through guidance, translation and editing.

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For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/europes-changing-climate-hazards-1/what-will-the-future-bring or scan the QR code.

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