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Indicator Specification
Most marine organisms are ‘ectotherms’ that rely on the temperature of their environment to function optimally and are adapted to the temperature regime of their existing distribution range. Because of this relationship between the physical environment and species’ life requirements, the redistribution of species has emerged as one of the most significant and visible species responses to climate change.
Climate velocities (the rate and direction that isotherms shift through space) can be up to seven times higher in the ocean than on land. Combined with fewer dispersal barriers in the marine environment, this allows marine species to seek out optimal temperature regimes faster than most terrestrial species. Changes in species distribution can therefore be used as an indicator of climate change impacts in marine ecosystems, bridging the gap between observed changes in physical conditions of the sea and observed changes in biological parameters.
As the distribution and abundance of a species changes, so will the role of that particular species in the local or regional marine community. Changes in species distribution can, in turn, change the overall productivity and stability of the local ecosystem, thereby ultimately affecting the food available to (other) fish, birds and marine mammals.
Changes in species distribution will also create challenges for local communities that depend on fish stocks and other marine resources. For example, the recent mackerel dispute between the EU and the Faroe Islands was caused by the fact that the mackerel stock had increased the time it spent in the waters of the Faroe Islands rather than in EU waters. This caused a heated discussion on stock allocation between countries. Ultimately, it led to an increase in the Faroe Islands’ total allowable catch from 5 to 13 %, with further increases planned. Such disputes will most likely occur again as coldwater species retreat northwards. New opportunities may arise as new species come in from the south, but it is uncertain whether these will be of a similar commercial value to the receding ones.
In addition to changes in species distribution, rising sea surface temperatures are also causing changes in the phenology of marine species.
In April 2013, the European Commission (EC) presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package. This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change (COM/2013/216 final) and a number of supporting documents. The overall aim of the EU Adaptation Strategy is to contribute to a more climate-resilient Europe.
One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which will be achieved by bridging the knowledge gap and further developing the European climate adaptation platform (Climate-ADAPT) as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Climate-ADAPT has been developed jointly by the EC and the EEA to share knowledge on (1) observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health, (2) relevant research, (3) EU, transnational, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans, and (4) adaptation case studies.
Further objectives include Promoting adaptation in key vulnerablesectors through climate-proofing EU sector policies and Promoting action by Member States. Most EU Member States have already adopted national adaptation strategies and many have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation. The EC also supports adaptation in cities through the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy initiative.
In September 2016, the EC presented an indicative roadmap for the evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy by 2018.
In November 2013, the European Parliament and the European Council adopted the 7th EU Environment Action Programme (7th EAP) to 2020, ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. The 7th EAP is intended to help guide EU action on environment and climate change up to and beyond 2020. It highlights that ‘Action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will increase the resilience of the Union’s economy and society, while stimulating innovation and protecting the Union’s natural resources.’ Consequently, several priority objectives of the 7th EAP refer to climate change adaptation.
No targets have been specified.
Data from the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS) on Calanus abundance in the central North Sea since 1958 is used for the indicator. The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey is the longest running, large-scale marine biological survey in the world. The CPR is a near-surface (10 m) plankton sampler voluntarily towed each month behind merchant ships on their normal routes of passage. Methods of analysis for 400 phyto and zooplankton taxa have remained almost unchanged since 1958.
The effects of temperature variability on abundance of demersal species within the European continental shelf fish assemblage has been investigated through compiling and analysing three decades of high-resolution data
Not applicable
No methodology references available.
See under "Methodology".
In general, changes related to the physical and chemical marine environment are better documented than biological changes. For example, systematic observations of sea surface temperature began around 1880. In contrast, the longest available time series of plankton from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) is around 60 years. Sampling was started in the North Sea in the 1950s and today a network covering the entire North Atlantic Ocean has been established.
Our understanding is improving of how climate change, in combination with the synergistic impacts of other stressors, can cause regime shifts in marine ecosystems, but additional research is still needed to untangle the complex interactions and their effects upon biodiversity. Ecological thresholds for individual species are still only understood in hindsight, i.e. once a change has occurred.
No uncertainty has been specified
Work specified here requires to be completed within 1 year from now.
Work specified here will require more than 1 year (from now) to be completed.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/northward-movement-of-marine-species-2 or scan the QR code.
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