Assessment versions

Published (reviewed and quality assured)

• No published assessments

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

Climate change may affect agriculture primarily through increasing atmospheric CO₂, rising temperatures and changing rainfall. Where rainfall does not limit crop growth, these conditions allow for earlier sowing dates and enhanced crop growth and yield (see previous indicators). Where reduced rainfall is predicted, however, the increased requirement for irrigation water can have an overall negative impact in economic and environmental terms. In these areas, increased water shortages are expected to increase competition for water between sectors (tourism, agriculture, energy, etc.) particularly in southern Europe where the agricultural demand for water is greatest. Several adaptation options are available to mitigate the risks of water shortage. Increased irrigation can further burden surface and groundwater resources and increase greenhouse gas emissions, adding to the mitigation challenge.

Scientific references

• References Genovese, G. (ed.), 2004a. Methodology of the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System. Vol. 1 to Vol. 4, EUR-report 21291 EN. Genovese, G., 2004b. Methodology of the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System. EUR 21291 EN/1-4.  http://mars.jrc.it/marsstat/Crop_Yield_Forecasting/METAMP/ . IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Parry, K. L.; Canziani, O. F.; Palutikof, J. P.; van der Linden, P. J. and Hanson, C. E. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Indicator definition

• Rate of change of the meteorological water balance 1975-2007
• Meteorological water balance in selected parts of Europe 1975-2007
  

Units

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp111-148CC2008_ch5-7to9_Terrestrial_ecosystems_soil_and_agriculture.pdf

Policy context and targets

Context description

In April 2009 the European Commission presented a White Paper on the framework for adaptation policies and measures to reduce the European Union's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The aim is to increase the resilience to climate change of health, property and the productive functions of land, inter alia by improving the management of water resources and ecosystems. More knowledge is needed on climate impact and vulnerability but a considerable amount of information and research already exists which can be shared better through a proposed Clearing House Mechanism. The White Paper stresses the need to mainstream adaptation into existing and new EU policies. A number of Member States have already taken action and several have prepared national adaptation plans. The EU is also developing actions to enhance and finance adaptation in developing countries as part of a new post-2012 global climate agreement expected in Copenhagen (Dec. 2009). For more information see: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/index_en.htm

Targets

No targets have been specified

Related policy documents

No related policy documents have been specified

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp111-148CC2008_ch5-7to9_Terrestrial_ecosystems_soil_and_agriculture.pdf

Methodology for gap filling

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Data specifications

EEA data references

• No datasets have been specified here.

External data references

• Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS (MARS)

Data sources in latest figures

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Data sets uncertainty

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified