Sea level rise

Indicator Assessment

Prod-ID: IND-193-en

Also known as: CSI 047 , CLIM 012

expired Created 08 Sep 2008 Published 08 Sep 2008 Last modified 28 Jun 2016

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Global average sea level rose by around 0.17 m (1.7 mm/year) during the 20th century. In Europe rates of sea-level rise (SLR) ranged from - 0.3 mm/year to 2.8 mm/year. Recent results from satellites and tide gauges indicate a higher average rate of global SLR in the past 15 years of about 3.1 mm/year. Projections by the IPCC for the end of the 21st century suggest an additional SLR of 0.18 to 0.59 m above the average 1980-2000 level. Based on the latest observations, recent projections indicate a future SLR that may exceed the IPCC upper limit. SLR can cause flooding, coastal erosion and the loss of flat and low-lying coastal regions. It increases the likelihood of storm surges, enforces landward intrusion of salt water and endangers coastal ecosystems and wetlands. An additional 1.6 million people living in Europe's coastal zones could experience coastal flooding by 2080.

Update planned for November 2012

Key messages

Global average sea level rose by around 0.17 m (1.7 mm/year) during the 20th century. In Europe rates of sea-level rise (SLR) ranged from - 0.3 mm/year to 2.8 mm/year. Recent results from satellites and tide gauges indicate a higher average rate of global SLR in the past 15 years of about 3.1 mm/year.
Projections by the IPCC for the end of the 21st century suggest an additional SLR of 0.18 to 0.59 m above the average 1980-2000 level. Based on the latest observations, recent projections indicate a future SLR that may exceed the IPCC upper limit.
SLR can cause flooding, coastal erosion and the loss of flat and low-lying coastal regions. It increases the likelihood of storm surges, enforces landward intrusion of salt water and endangers coastal ecosystems and wetlands. An additional 1.6 million people living in Europe's coastal zones could experience coastal flooding by 2080.

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Sea-level change at different European tide-gauge stations 1896-2004

Note: Data (mm/year) corrected with regard to postglacial land movement and gravity-field variation.

Data source:

Novotny, K. and Groh, A., 2007. Untersuchung von Pegelreihen zur Bestimmung der Änderung des mittleren Meeresspiegels an den europäischen Küsten; Technical University of Dresden; internal report prepared for the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA).

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Changes in global sea level 1870-2006

Note: Changes in global sea level 1870-2006

Data source:

Church, J. A. and White, N. J., 2006. A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. In Geophysical Research Letters 33, L01602.

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Sea-level changes in Europe October 1992-May 2007

Note: Based on satellite data; trends in mm/year, inverted barometer included, seasonal signal removed

Data source:

Guinehut, S. and Larnicol, G., 2008. Produced for EEA by Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS). http://www.cls.fr/.

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Projected global average sea-level rise 1990-2100

Note: Six SRES scenarios are shown

Data source:

UNEP, 2007. Global Outlook for Ice & Snow; UNEP/GRIDArendal, 2007. IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Houghton, J. T. et al. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, UK.

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Past trends

Tide gauge-based data e.g. from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), show that the long-term average sea level on European coasts changed, depending on the region, at a rate between -0.3 mm/year and 2.8 mm/year during the 20th century (Figure 1). In this period, global sea level rose by an average of 1.7 mm/year (Church and White, 2006). Recent satellite data-sets indicate an accelerated global trend in sea-level rise to about 3.1 mm/year (Figure 2) in the past 15 years which is almost backed by tide-gauge data from this period (Nerem et al., 2006; Church and White, 2006; Rahmstorf et al., 2007). It is very likely that the observed trend in sea-level rise over the past 100 years is attributable mainly to an increase in the volume of ocean water as a consequence of temperature rise, although inflow of water from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is playing an increasing role (Table 1). Several recently-published papers underline the relatively small, but significantly increasing contribution of ice-sheets, e.g. from Greenland (Cazenave, 2006; Chen et al., 2006; Rignot and Kangaratnam, 2006). Satellite observations indicate a large spatial variability of SLR trends in the European seas (Figure 3; Table 2). For instance in the Mediterranean and the Levantine Sea positive trends are observed while negative trends are observed in the northern Ionian Sea. These local variations could be explained by variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), inter-annual wind variability, changes in global ocean circulation patterns, or specific local structures of the circulation (e.g. gyres) (Demirov and Pinardi, 2002).

Projections

Sea-level rise by the end of this century (2090-2099) is projected, under the SRES-scenarios, to be 0.18-0.59 m above the present (1980-1999) level, with a maximum rate of rise three times that in the past decade (Figure 4). Thermal expansion is the largest component, contributing 70-75 % of the central estimate of these projections for all scenarios. Glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet are also projected to contribute to sea-level rise (IPCC, 2007a). Sea-level rise during the 21st century is projected to have substantial geographic variability (IPCC, 2007a). In Europe, regional influences in the Arctic Ocean and the northern North Atlantic may result in SLR being up to 50 % higher than these global estimates (Woodworth et al., 2005). The impact of the NAO on winter sea levels adds an uncertainty of 0.1-0.2 m to these estimates (Hulme et al., 2002; Tsimplis et al., 2004). A slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), also known as great conveyor belt, in the North Atlantic would result in a further rise in relative sea level at European coasts (IPCC, 2007b). SLR projections for the Baltic and Arctic coasts based on SRES scenarios indicate an increased risk of flooding and coastal erosion after 2050 but always lower than the risk in the North Sea and the Mediterranean (Johansson et al., 2004; Meier et al., 2004, 2006b; Nicholls, 2004). The A1F1-scenario, which assumes very high greenhouse gas emission from fossil-fuel combustion, would lead to a greater impact of SLR in the northern Mediterranean, as well as in northern and western Europe. While it was highly unlikely that the populations in these coastal areas would experience flooding in 1990, up to 1.6 million people might experience coastal flooding each year by 2080 (Nicholls, 2004). Various adaptation measures are available to reduce these risks. But there are limits to adaptation: due to the thermal inertia of the oceans, sea-level rise would not stop by 2100 even if greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilised. Over a period of centuries and millennia, a very large SLR could result from the melting of the world's major ice sheets in Greenland and on the West Antarctic ice shelf, which have an SLR potential of about 7 and 5-6 m respectively, should they melt completely (IPCC, 2007a).

Table 1 Contribution of different processes to global sea-level rise (1993-2006)

Process	Contribution to global sea-level rise [mm/year]
Ocean thermal expansion	1.6 +/- 0.5
Melting of glaciers and ice caps	0.8 +/- 0.2
Melting of the Greenland ice sheet	0.2 +/- 0.1
Melting of the west Antarctic ice sheet	0.2 +/- 0.4
Unaccounted for	0.3
Total global sea level rise	3.1 +/- 0.4

Table 2 Average sea-level rise in some European seas (satellite observations)

October 1992-May 2007)

European seas	Sea-level rise [mm/year]
North Atlantic (50 to70N)	3.4
Central North Atlantic (30 to 50N)	1.15
Mediterranean Sea	1.5
Black Sea	7.5

Indicator specification and metadata

Indicator definition

Sea-level change at different European tide-gauge stations 1896-2004
Changes in global sea level 1870-2006
Sea-level changes in Europe October 1992-May 2007
Projected global average Sea-level rise 1990-2100

Units

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp76-110CC2008_ch5-4to6_Water_quantity_and_quality.pdf

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

Sea-level rise (SLR) results from thermal expansion of the oceans (the increase in volume due to rising ocean water temperature) and increased inflow of melt-water from glaciers and ice-sheets (in particular the Greenland and west Antarctic ice sheets). Thus it is an important indicator of climate change, with great relevance in Europe for flooding, coastal erosion and the loss of flat coastal regions. Rising sea levels increase the likelihood of storm surges, enforce landward intrusion of salt water and endanger coastal ecosystems and wetlands. Coastal areas in Europe often contain important natural ecosystems, productive economic sectors, and major urban centres. A higher flood risk increases the threat of loss of life and property as well as damage to sea-dikes and infrastructure, and could lead to an increased loss of tourism, recreation and transportation functions (Nicholls and Tol, 2006; Nicholls et al., 2007; Devoy, 2008). Low-lying coastlines with high population densities and small tidal ranges will be most vulnerable to SLR (Kundzewicz, 2001). Thus coastal flooding related to SLR could affect a large population (Arnell, 2004; Nicholls, 2004). Because of the slow reaction of the climate system, climate change mitigation will not reduce these risks over the coming decades to any significant degree, but various options for adaptation exist.

Scientific references

References Arnell, N. W., 2004. Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14: 31-52. Cazenave, A., 2006. How fast are the ice sheets melting? Science 314: 1250-1252. Chen, J. L.; Wilson, C. R. and Tapley, B. D., 2006. Satellite gravimetry measurments confirm accelerated melting of Greenland ice sheet. Science 313: 1958-60. Church, J. A. and White, N. J., 2006. A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. In Geophysical Research Letters 33, L01602. Demirov E. and Pinardi N., 2002. Simulation of the Mediterranean Sea circulation from 1979 to 1993: Part I. The inter-annual variability. Journal of Marine Systems 33-34: 23-50. Devoy, R. J. N., 2008. Coastal vulnerability and the plications of sea-level rise for Ireland. Journal of Coastal Research 24 (2): 325-341. Guinehut, S. and Larnicol, G., 2008. Produced for EEA by Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS). http://www.cls.fr/ . Hulme, M.; Jenkins, G.; Lu, X.; Turnpenny, J. R.; Mitchell, T. D.; Jones, R. G.; Lowe, J.; Murphy, J. M.; Hassell, D.; Boorman, P.; McDonald, R. and Hill, S., 2002. Climate Change Scenarios for the UK. In: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich. IPCC, 2001. Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Houghton, J. T. et al. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, UK. IPCC, 2007a. Cimate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K. B.; Tignor M. and Miller H. L. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. IPCC, 2007b. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Parry, M. L.; Canziani, O. F.; Palutikof, J. P.; van der Linden, P.J. and Hanson, C.E. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Johansson, M. M.; Kahma, K. K. and Bowman H., 2004. Scenarios for sea level on the Finnish coast. Boreal Environment Research 9: 153-166. Katsman, C. A.; Hazeleger, W.; Drijfhout, S. S.; van Oldenborgh, G. J. and Burgers, G. J. H., 2007. Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects of ocean dynamics and gravity changes induced by ice melt, Kluwer Academic publishers, the Netherlands. Kundzewicz, Z. W.; Parry, M.; Cramer, W.; Holten, J. I.; Kaczmarek, Z.; Martens, P.; Nicholls, R. J.; Oquist, M.; Rounsevell, M. D. A. and Szolgay, J. 2001. Europe. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 641-692. Meier, H. E. M.; Broman, B. and Kjellström, E., 2004. Simulated sea level in past and future climates of the Baltic Sea. Climate Research 27: 59-75. Meier, H. E. M.; Broman, B.; Kallio, H. and Kjellström, E., 2006b. Projections of future surface winds, sea levels, and wind waves in the late 21st Century and their application for impact studies of flood prone areas in the Baltic Sea region. In: Schmidt-Thomé, P. (ed): Sea level change affecting the spatial development of the Baltic Sea region, Geological Survey of Finland, Special Paper 41: 23-43. Nerem, R. S.; Leuliette, E. and Cazenave, A., 2006. Present-day sea-level change: A review. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 338: 1077-1083. Nicholls, R. J., 2004. Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14: 69-86. Nicholls, R. J. and de la Vega-Leinert, A. C. (eds.), 2007. Implications of sea-level rise for Europe's coasts. Journal of Coastal Research. Special issue (in press). Nicholls, R. J. and Tol, R. S. J., 2006. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London Series A 364: 1073-1095. Novotny, K. and Groh, A., 2007. Untersuchung von Pegelreihen zur Bestimmung der Änderung des mittleren Meeresspiegels an den europäischen Küsten; Technical University of Dresden; internal report prepared for the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA). Rahmstorf, S.; Cazenave, A.; Church, J. A.; Hansen, J. E.; Keeling, R.; Parker, D. E. and Somerville, R. C. J., 2007. Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science 316: 709. Rignot, E. and Kanagaratnam, P. 2006. Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Science 311: 986-990. Tsimplis, M. N.; Woolf, D. K.; Osbourn, T. J.; Wakelin, S.; Wolf, J.; Flather, R.; Woodworth, P.; Shaw, A. G. P.; Challenor, P. and Yan, Z., 2004. Future changes of sea level and wave heights at the northern European coasts. Geophysical Research Abstracts 6: 00332. UNEP, 2007. Global Outlook for Ice & Snow; UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2007. Watterson, I. G., 2003. Effects of a dynamic ocean on simulated climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases. Climate Dynamics 21: 197-209. Woodworth, P. L.; Gregory, J. M. and Nicholls, R. J. 2005. Long term sea level changes and their impacts. In: Robinson A.R. and Brink, K.H. (eds). The global coastal ocean: multiscale interdisciplinary processes. Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA pp. 715-753.

Policy context and targets

Context description

In April 2009 the European Commission presented a White Paper on the framework for adaptation policies and measures to reduce the European Union's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The aim is to increase the resilience to climate change of health, property and the productive functions of land, inter alia by improving the management of water resources and ecosystems. More knowledge is needed on climate impact and vulnerability but a considerable amount of information and research already exists which can be shared better through a proposed Clearing House Mechanism. The White Paper stresses the need to mainstream adaptation into existing and new EU policies. A number of Member States have already taken action and several have prepared national adaptation plans. The EU is also developing actions to enhance and finance adaptation in developing countries as part of a new post-2012 global climate agreement expected in Copenhagen (Dec. 2009). For more information see: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/index_en.htm

Targets

No targets have been specified

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp76-110CC2008_ch5-4to6_Water_quantity_and_quality.pdf

Methodology for gap filling

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Data sets uncertainty

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Data sources

Changes in mean sea level along European coasts
provided by Federal Environmental Agency (UBA)
Sea-level changes in Europe
provided by Collecte Localisation Satellite (CLS)
Global sea-level change rates
provided by UNEP/GRID-Arendal

Generic metadata

Topics:

Climate change adaptation , Water and marine environment

Tags:

soer2010 , thematic assessments , sea , climate change , sea level , satellite observations , understanding climate change

DPSIR: Impact
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)

Indicator codes

CSI 047
CLIM 012

Temporal coverage:

1870-2100

Geographic coverage:

Countries

Austria , Belgium , Bulgaria , Cyprus , Czech Republic , Denmark , Estonia , Finland , France , Germany , Greece , Hungary , Ireland , Italy , Latvia , Lithuania , Luxembourg , Malta , Netherlands , Poland , Portugal , Romania , Slovakia , Slovenia , Spain , Sweden , United Kingdom

Geographical areas

Dynamic , Earth , Europe

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Hans-Martin Füssel

Ownership

Joint Research Centre (JRC)

Dates

First draft created:

08 Sep 2008, 12:00 AM

Publish date:

08 Sep 2008, 12:00 AM

Last modified:

28 Jun 2016, 05:51 PM

Permalinks

Permalink to this version: 9d4e83bae47d41a54b6b63795f94bb69
Permalink to latest version: IND-193-en

Document Actions

For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/sea-level-rise/sea-level-rise-assessment-published or scan the QR code.

PDF generated on 18 Nov 2018, 01:26 AM

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