Indicator Assessment
Precipitation extremes in Europe
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- For Europe as a whole, the intensity of precipitation extremes such as heavy rain events has increased in the past 50 years, even for areas with a decrease in mean precipitation such as central Europe and the Mediterranean.
- The proportion of Europe experiencing meteorological drought conditions did not change significantly during the 20th century.
- For Europe as whole, heavy precipitation events are projected to continue to become more frequent.
- Dry periods are projected to increase in length and frequency, especially in southern Europe.
Changes in the contribution of heavy rainfall to total precipitation 1961-2006
Note: The map shows changes in the contribution of heavy rainfall to total precipitation
Percentage of Europe experiencing moderate drought conditions during the 20th century
Note: Expressed as standardized precipitation indices (SPI) for time scales of 12 months
Lloyd-Hughes, B. and Saunders, M. A., 2002. A drought climatology for Europe. International Journal of Climatology 22: 1571-1592.
Simulated land average maximum 5-day total precipitation for different European regions (1860-2100)
Note: The 20th century (black), models simulations for IPCC SRES intermediate A1B (orange) and low B1 (green) emission scenarios
Sillmann, J. and Roeckner, E., 2008. Indices for extreme events in projections of anthropogenic climate change. Climatic Change 86 (12): 83-104.
Simulated land average maximum number of consecutive dry days for different European regions (1860-2100)
Note: The 20th century (black), models simulations for IPCC SRES intermediate A1B (orange) and low B1 (green) emission scenarios
Sillmann, J. and Roeckner, E., 2008. Indices for extreme events in projections of anthropogenic climate change. Climatic Change 86 (12): 83-104.
Past trends
The number of extreme precipitation events has increased over most of the European land area, linked to warming and increases of atmospheric water vapour. For Europe as a whole, also the intensity of extreme precipitation such as heavy rain has increased in the past 30 years, even for areas with a decrease in mean precipitation, such as central Europe and the Mediterranean. In particular, the contribution of heavy rain to total precipitation has increased (Figure 1).
The proportion of Europe that has experienced extreme and/or moderate meteorological drought conditions did not change significantly during the 20th century (Figure 2) (Lloyd-Hughes and Saunders, 2002). Some drying trends were observed over central and eastern Europe, and western Russia. Similar, some trends were observed in winter/spring. Summer droughts showed no statistically significant trends in the period 1901-2002 (Robock et al., 2005; van der Schrier et al., 2006).
Projections
For Europe as whole it is likely (66 % probability) that heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent (IPCC, 2007a). In summer, the frequency of wet days is projected to decrease, but the intensity of extreme rain showers may increase. In addition, the frequency of several-day precipitation episodes is projected to increase. Geographically, there is considerable regional differentiation in the projections. Extreme precipitation events are projected to increase by 17 % in northern and 13 % in central Europe during the 21st century, with no changes projected in southern Europe (for the ECHAM 4 climate model, A1B scenario, Figure 3, Sillmann and Roeckner, 2008).
The combination of higher temperatures and reduced mean summer precipitation is expected to enhance the frequency and intensity of droughts across Europe. This can be illustrated, for example, by the projected number of consecutive dry days, defined as days with precipitation below 1 mm (Figure 4). In southern Europe, the maximum number of these days is projected to increase substantially during the 21st century. The longest dry period within a year may be prolonged here by one month at the end of 21st century. In central Europe, prolongation of longest dry period is by one week, and no prolongation is projected for northern Europe. Thus regions in Europe that are now dry are projected to become even more vulnerable.
Indicator definition
- Changes in the contribution of heavy rainfall to total precipitation 1961-2006
- Percentage of Europe experiencing moderate drought conditions during the 20th century
- Simulated land average maximum 5-day total precipitation for different European regions (1860-2100)
- Simulated land average maximum number of consecutive dry days for different European regions (1860-2100)
Units
Policy context and targets
Context description
In April 2009 the European Commission presented a White Paper on the framework for adaptation policies and measures to reduce the European Union's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The aim is to increase the resilience to climate change of health, property and the productive functions of land, inter alia by improving the management of water resources and ecosystems. More knowledge is needed on climate impact and vulnerability but a considerable amount of information and research already exists which can be shared better through a proposed Clearing House Mechanism. The White Paper stresses the need to mainstream adaptation into existing and new EU policies. A number of Member States have already taken action and several have prepared national adaptation plans. The EU is also developing actions to enhance and finance adaptation in developing countries as part of a new post-2012 global climate agreement expected in Copenhagen (Dec. 2009). For more information see: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/index_en.htm
Targets
No targets have been specified
Related policy documents
No related policy documents have been specified
Methodology
Methodology for indicator calculation
Methodology for gap filling
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf
Methodology references
No methodology references available.
Uncertainties
Methodology uncertainty
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf
Data sets uncertainty
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf
Rationale uncertainty
No uncertainty has been specified
Data sources
-
A drought climatology for Europe
provided by ALPINE CONVENTION -
E-OBS gridded dataset
provided by Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Other info
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
- CLIM 004
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Geographic coverage
Temporal coverage
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/precipitation-extremes-in-europe/precipitation-extremes-in-europe-assessment or scan the QR code.
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