Net Energy Import Dependency

Assessment versions

Published (reviewed and quality assured)

• No published assessments

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

Environmental context

The environmental impact and fuel import dependency are linked via the fuel mix used to deliver energy services, the level of demand for those services and the form with which these fuels and energy services have to be delivered (e.g. pipeline infrastructure vs. shipping, centralised vs. decentralised energy system, etc)  The level of net imports is determined by several factors including economic issues, the evolution of final energy demand (see ENER16), the efficiency of the energy system (see ENER11) in particular of electricity transformation (see ENER19 and ENER17). It is also strongly affected by the level of indigenous supply (see Figure ) as well as the development of alternatives such as renewables (see ENER29). In addition, the need to import fuels also depends on the end-use efficiency (e.g. measures in transport and buildings sector expected to yield significant benefits in this respect (see ENER 21, ENER 02 and TERM27). The environmental pressures associated with energy production will change depending on the fuel mix used (see Figure 4 and ENER 01, ENER 05, ENER 06, ENER 07).

Rationale

Energy supply does have negative effects on the environment and human health. Addressing energy dependency can result in strengthening or weakening these effects, depending on which fuels are being replaced and how the life cycle (LCA) environmental pressures are being addressed (e.g. upstream environmental pressures associated with the production and transport of fossil fuels, downstream environmental pressures related to disposal of CO₂ emissions and other wastes, etc). Decreasing the amount of imported fossil fuels on one hand and increasing energy savings and the share of renewable energy on the other, is likely to result in diminishing the negative effects on environment and human health of energy supply and energy consumption as well as improve energy security in Europe (see also ENER 22, ENER 23, ENER 24, ENER 25, ENER 26, ENER 27, ENER 28, ENER 29, ENER 30).

Scientific references

• IEA, 2010, Extended Energy Balances edition 2010 with 2009 data, International Energy Agency.
• Wood Mackenzie, 2007, Review of UK Oil Refining Capacity for Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, Wood Mackenzie
• EC, 2008c. Europe's current and future energy position demand - resources - investments. Working document accompanying the Second Strategic Energy Review. SEC (2008) 2871
• CRS, 2008 The European Union’s Energy Security Challenges, Congressional Research Service Report for Congress
• DG TREN, 2008 Security of Gas Supply, Presentation made by Jean Vinois, DG Transport and Energy – European Commission to the Baltic Gas Seminar, 15 March 2008  
• EC, 2008, European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030 – update 2007, report produced for the European Commission DG TREN
• EC, 2009 Climate action and renewable energy package (CARE Package).
• Euratom, Annual report 2008
• EEA 2005 Joint EMEP/CORINAIR Atmospheric Emission Inventory Guidebook, 3rd edition. EEA Technical Report No. 30
• EEA, 2008 Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990 - 2006 and inventory report 2008, European Environment Agency
• IEA, 2007, Energy Security and Climate Policy, Assessing Interactions  International Energy Agency
• IPTS, 2006, Global Climate Policy Scenarios for 2030 and beyond Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pathway Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 models, 2007, Report produced by the JRC (Joint Research Centre), European Commission.
• Resources, Production and Demand, Uranium 2007  A Joint Report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, OECD/IAEA, 2008
• Our energy future: An economic, geopolitical and risk perspective Swiss Re, 2007, Our energy future: An economic, geopolitical and risk perspective, Risk Dialogue Series, Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue
• 2007 Survey of Energy Resources WEC, 2007, 2007 Survey of Energy Resources, World Energy Council
• Newly created RationaleReference
• OECD/IAEA, 2008, Uranium 2007: Resources, Production and Demand A Joint Report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency
• EC, 2008b. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council and the Economic and Social Committee Update of the nuclear illustrative programme in the context of the second strategic energy review. COM/2008/0776 final
• Euratom, 2008, Annual report 2008

Indicator definition

Units

Net import of gas is measured in oil equivalent (toe).

Policy context and targets

Context description

Council adopted on 6 April 2009 the climate-energy legislative package containing measures to fight climate change and promote renewable energy. This package is designed to achieve the EU's overall environmental target of a 20 % reduction in greenhouse gases and a 20 % share of renewable energy in the EU's total energy consumption by 2020. The measures adopted are also likely to decrease the import dependency of fossil fuels by promoting domestic renewable sources and increased efficiency of fuel consumption in cars. The climate action and renewable energy (CARE) package includes the following main policy documents

• Directive 2009/29/ec of the European parliament and of the Council amending directive 2003/87/ec so as to improve and extend the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading scheme of the community

• Directive 2009/31/ec of the European parliament and of the Council on the geological storage of carbon dioxide

• Directive 2009/28/ec of the European parliament and of the Council on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources

• Community guidelines on state aid for environmental protection (2008/c 82/01)

• Directive 2008/101/ec of the European parliament and of the Council amending directive 2003/87/ec so as to include aviation activities in the scheme for greenhouse gas Emission allowance trading within the community

• Regulation (ec) no 443/2009 of the European parliament and of the Council setting emission performance standards for new passenger cars as part of the community’s integrated approach to reduce CO₂ emissions from light-duty vehicles

Second Strategic Energy Review; COM(2008) 781 final (EC, 2008c): Strategic review on short, medium and long term targets on EU energy security. It is aimed to build up energy solidarity among Member States. In July 2009 there was a follow-up where new rules were elaborated to improve security of gas supplies in the framework of the internal gas market and to increase transparency of investments in infrastructure.

The EU Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (COM (2006)545 final) aims to boost the cost-effective and efficient use of energy in the EU. It is targeted to reduce energy consumption by 20% by 2020 and to reduce dependency on imported fuels. A revision of the Action Plan is scheduled for 2010 where binding national targets are to be considered.

Targets

No targets have been specified

Related policy documents

• 2008/c 82/01
  Community guidelines on state aid for environmental protection (2008/c 82/01)
• 2009/29/ec
  Directive 2009/29/ec of the European parliament and of the Council amending directive 2003/87/ec so as to improve and extend the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading scheme of the community.
• 2009/31/EC
  Directive 2009/31/ec of the European parliament and of the Council on the geological storage of carbon dioxide.
• COM(2006) 545
  Action Plan for Energy Efficiency
• COM(2008) 776
  Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council and the Economic and Social Committee - Update of the nuclear illustrative programme in the context of the second strategic energy review. COM/2008/776 final
• COM(2008) 781
  COM(2008) 781 final - Second Strategic Energy Review
• DIRECTIVE 2008/101/EC
  DIRECTIVE 2008/101/EC OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 19 November 2008 amending Directive 2003/87/EC so as to include aviation activities in the scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community
• DIRECTIVE 2009/28/EC
  DIRECTIVE 2009/28/EC OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources and amending and subsequently repealing Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC
• REGULATION (EC) No 443/2009 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL 443/2009
  Regulation (ec) no 443/2009 of the European parliament and of the Council setting emission performance standards for new passenger cars as part of the community's integrated approach to reduce CO2 emissions from light-duty vehicles.

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Figure 1 - EU27 net imports by country of origin

The coding (used in the Eurostat New Cronos database) and specific components of the indicator are:

Numerator:
[Imports (by country of origin) - solid fuels - annual data for Hard Coal 2111, Patent Fuels 2112, Hard Coke 2121, Brown Coal (Lignite) 2212, Brown Coal Coke 2220, Brown Coal Briquettes 2230 and Peat 2310] + [Imports (by country of origin) - oil - annual data for Crude Oil & Feedstocks 3100 and All Petroleum Products 3200] + [Imports (by country of origin) - gas - annual data for natural gas 4100] minus Exports (by country of origin, excluding EU-27 countries) for same fuels

To convert to toe (based on Eurostat average conversion values for 2008 for EU27):

Natural gas in TJ (Gross Calorific Value) * 0.9 (GCV to Net Calorific Value) * 23.884 toe/TJ

Denominator:
Gross inland energy consumption (GIEC) 100900 (tonnes of oil equivalent). Composed of 2000 Solid Fuels + 3000 Crude oil and Petroleum Products + 4000 Gas + 5100 Nuclear Energy + 5500 Renewable Energies + 7100 Industrial Wastes + 6000 Electrical Energy (imports) + 5200 Derived For the separate product indicators the numerators/denominators are, respectively: solid fuels, crude oil and petroleum products and gas

For the separate product indicators the numerators/denominators are, respectively: solid fuels, crude oil and petroleum products and gas

 Figure 2 - MS net Extra-EU27 dependence on imports indicator

Numerator:
[ total imports by origin (of the product) from ‘World’ (All Countries of the World) minus the sum of imports by origin (of the same product) from other EU Member States ] MINUS [total exports by origin (of the product) from ‘World’ (All Countries of the World) minus the sum of exports by origin (of the same product) from other EU Member States.]

Denominator:
Gross inland energy consumption

I.e. net imports as a share of primary energy excluding trade with other EU Member States.

Figure 3 -Net imports of all fuels and CO₂ emissions in EU-27 by fuel and origin of the fuel

Left-hand figure
Numerator = 100600 Net imports of 2000 Solid Fuels + 3000 Crude oil and Petroleum Products + 4000 Gas + 6000 Electrical Energy Denominator = 100900, Gross inland consumption

Right-hand figure
Imported emissions = total CO2 emissions for liquid, solid and gaseous fuels from EEA inventory data multiplied by share of net imports (3000 crude oil and petroleum products, 2000 solid fuels, 4000 gas, respectively) in GIEC for that fuel.
Domestic emissions = total emission by fuel minus imported emissions.

Emissions from Fugitives and Other fuels are assumed to be domestic only due to lack of comparable data on leakage rates. In relative terms, fugitive emissions in Russia currently represent about 18% of Russian total greenhouse gas emissions whereas it is less than 2% in the EU.

Methodology for gap filling

No methodology for gap filling has been specified. Probably this info has been added together with indicator calculation.

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Data specifications

EEA data references

• Air Emission data set for Indicators provided by European Environment Agency (EEA)

External data references

• Energy statistics (Eurostat)

Data sources in latest figures

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

The estimate of imported/domestic CO₂ emissions use an average EU-27 Implied Emission Factors (tCO₂/TJ) for solid, liquid and gaseous fuels.

The IPCC believes that the uncertainty in CO₂ emission estimates from fuel use in Europe is likely to be less than ± 5 %. Total GHG emission trends are likely to be more accurate than the absolute emission estimates for individual years. The IPCC suggests that the uncertainty in total GHG emission trends is ± 4 % to 5 %. Uncertainty estimates were calculated for the EU-15 for the first time in EEA (2005). The results suggest that uncertainties at EU-15 level are between ± 4 % and 8 % for total EU-15 greenhouse gas emissions. For energy related greenhouse gas emissions the results suggest uncertainties between ± 1 % (stationary combustion) and ± 11 % (fugitive emissions). For public electricity and heat production specifically, the uncertainty is estimated to be ± 3 %. For the new Member States and some other EEA countries, uncertainties are assumed to be higher than for the EU-15 Member States because of data gaps.

Indicator uncertainty (scenarios)
Scenario analysis always includes many uncertainties and the results should thus be interpreted with care.

• uncertainties related to future socioeconomic and other developments (e.g. GDP);
• uncertainties in the underlying statistical and empirical data (e.g. on future technology costs and performance);
• uncertainties in the representativeness of the indicator;
• uncertainties in the dynamic behaviour of the energy system and its translation into models;
• uncertainties in future fuel costs and the share of low carbon technologies in the future

Data sets uncertainty

Imports/exports represent all entries into/out of the national territory excluding transit quantities (notably via gas and oil pipelines). However, data on imports are generally taken from importers'/exporters’ declarations; accordingly, they may differ from the data collected by the customs authorities and those included in the foreign-trade statistics.

In the case of crude oil and petroleum products, imports represent the quantities delivered to the national territory and, in particular, those quantities:

(i) destined for treatment on behalf of foreign countries;

(ii) only imported on a temporary basis;

(iii) imported and deposited in uncleared bonded warehouses;

(iv) imported and placed in special warehouses on behalf of foreign countries;

(v) imported from regions and/or territories overseas under national sovereignty.

Simlarly, for exports those quantities:

(i) destined for treatment in other countries;

(ii) only exported on a temporary basis;

(iii) exported and deposited in uncleared bonded warehouses;

(iv) exported and placed in special warehouses in foreign countries;

(v) exported to regions and/or territories overseas under national sovereignity;

(vi) re-exported after treatment or transformation;

(vii) supplied to national or foreign troops stationed abroad (in so far as secrecy permits this).

Strengths and weaknesses (at data level)

Data have been traditionally compiled by Eurostat through the annual Joint Questionnaires, shared by Eurostat and the International Energy Agency, following a well established and harmonised methodology. Methodological information on the annual Joint Questionnaires and data compilation can be found in Eurostat's web page for metadata on energy statistics.

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_SDDS/EN/nrg_quant_sm1.htm  See also information related to the Energy Statistics Regulation http://www.europarl.europa.eu/oeil/file.jsp?id=5431232

CO₂ emissions data is officially reported following agreed procedures. e.g. regarding source/sector split under the EU Monitoring Mechanism DECISION No 280/2004/EC.

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified