Assessment versions

Published (reviewed and quality assured)

• No published assessments

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

Climate change is one of our greatest environmental, social and economic threats. The warming of the climate system is unequivocal, says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Observations show increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. It is very likely that most of the warming can be attributed to the emissions of greenhouse gases by human activities. Efforts to reduce or limit the effects of climate change are focused on limiting the emissions of all greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol.

The Kyoto Protocol requires the EC (consisting of the 15 Member States of before May 2004) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 8% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. Most of the 10 new Member States have the same target. The target for Hungary and Poland is -6% while Cyprus and Malta are no Annex-I Parties to the UNFCCC and thus have no target.

In 2007, the EU committed to a unilateral 20% GHG reduction target, which corresponds to a 14% decrease in GHG emissions between 2005 and 2020. The EU Climate and Energy Package adopted in 2009 sets a legislative framework to achieve this objective in a two-fold way: a 21% reduction of emissions covered under the EU ETS compared to 2005 levels, to be achieved across the whole EU, and an effort to reduce emissions not covered by the EU ETS by about 10% compared to 2005 levels, shared between the EU 27 Member States through differentiated national GHG targets under the Effort Sharing Decision.

This indicator supports the EEA's annual report on greenhouse gas emission trends and projections, and the Commission's annual assessment of the actual and projected progress of Member States and the Community towards fulfilling their emission reduction commitments. These assessments also summarize any progress on Community policies and measures resulting from the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP).

The Commission's Progress Report towards achieving the Kyoto objectives in the EU and the individual Member States is required under the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism (Council Decision 280/2004/EC concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community GHG emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol).

Scientific references

• IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Indicator definition

This indicator illustrates the projected trends in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in relation to the EU and Member State targets, using existing policies and measures and/or additional policies and/or use of Kyoto mechanisms. The greenhouse gases are those covered by the Kyoto Protocol (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, SF₆, HFCs and PFCs), weighed by their respective global warming potential, aggregated and presented in CO₂-equivalent units.

Units

Million tonnes in CO₂-equivalent

Policy context and targets

Context description

The indicator is aimed to support the Commission's annual progress assessment of the EU and the Member States reduction of emissions towards achieving the Kyoto Protocol target under the EU Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Mechanism (Council Decision 280/2004/EC)

Targets

For the EU-15 Member States, the targets are those set out in Council Decision 2002/358EC in which Member States agreed that some countries be allowed to increase their emissions, within limits, provided these are offset by reductions in others.

The EU-15 Kyoto Protocol target for 2008-2012 is a reduction of 8 % from 1990 levels for the basket of six greenhouse gases. For the new Member States, the candidate countries and other EEA member countries, the targets are included in the Kyoto Protocol.

Overview of national Kyoto targets (reduction from base year levels):

In 2007, the EU committed to a unilateral 20% GHG reduction target, which corresponds to a 14% decrease in GHG emissions between 2005 and 2020. The EU Climate and Energy Package adopted in 2009 sets a legislative framework to achieve this objective in a two-fold way: a 21% reduction of emissions covered under the EU ETS compared to 2005 levels, to be achieved across the whole EU, and an effort to reduce emissions not covered by the EU ETS by about 10% compared to 2005 levels, shared between the EU 27 Member States through differentiated national GHG targets under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD).

Related policy documents

• Council Decision (2002/358/EC) of 25 April 2002
  Council Decision (2002/358/EC) of 25 April 2002 concerning the approval, on behalf of the European Community, of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the joint fulfilment of commitments thereunder.
• Decision No 406/2009/EC (Effort Sharing Decision)
  Decision No 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Community’s greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020
• Greenhouse gas monitoring mechanism Decision
  Decision No 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 February 2004 concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol
• Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
  Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; adopted at COP3 in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997
• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
  United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Projected progress calculates the gap between emission projections and the Kyoto target. Two types of projections are considered:

1. projections with existing domestic policies and measures
2. projections with existing and additional domestic policies and measures, including projected use of Kyoto Mechanisms and effects of carbon sinks.

Further detail available in the latest EEA report on ‘Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2012-Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets’.

Methodology for gap filling

Further detail available in EEA report on ‘Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe 2012’.

Methodology references

• Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in Europe This EEA report presents an assessment of the current progress of EU Member States, EU candidate countries and other EEA member countries towards their respective targets under the Kyoto Protocol and the Effort Sharing Decision. This is based on their past greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 and the projected greenhouse gas emissions of these countries by 2020, derived from data and related information they provided to the European Commission.

Data specifications

EEA data references

• Climate change mitigation policies and measures (greenhouse gas emissions) provided by European Environment Agency (EEA)

External data references

• Deliveries for Projections and national programmes

Data sources in latest figures

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

The methodology proposed consists in simple additions of data reported by Member States. However, uncertainty arises from the following:

• projections can be subject to updates which might not be reflected in the assessment if these updates were recently made;
• the projections taken into account are fully consistent with MS submissions under the Monitoring Mechanism. However, other sets of projections with different data might have been published by countries (e.g. national allocation plans, national communications to UNFCCC).

Data sets uncertainty

Uncertainties in the projections of GHG emissions can be significant but have not been assessed. Several countries carry out sensitivity anaylses on their projections.

Rationale uncertainty

Not relevant.

Work description

Resource needs

No resource needs have been specified

Status

Deadline