Freight transport demand

Indicator Assessment
Prod-ID: IND-36-en
Also known as: CSI 036 , TERM 013
expired Created 24 Nov 2014 Published 12 Dec 2014 Last modified 07 Mar 2016
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This content has been archived on 07 Mar 2016, reason: Other (New version data-and-maps/indicators/freight-transport-demand-version-2/assessment-5 was published)
Freight transport volumes in the EU‑28 decreased by 2 % between 2011 and 2012, mainly due to a 3 % reduction in road freight transport (with Italy leading the road drop by 13.8 % compared to its 2011 figure). Rail transport also decreased by 4 % between 2011 and 2012, whereas IWW transport increased by 6 %. Maritime and air transport did not vary significantly. Overall, total freight transport volumes in the EU‑28 are now 10 % below the peak volumes experienced in 2007. The modal share remains constant; road transport dominates land freight transport at 75 %, followed by rail (18 %) and IWW (7 %). Switzerland experienced a decrease of 4 % in road and rail transport, whereas Norway and Turkey’s overall land freight transport increased (by 4 % and 6 % respectively), and Iceland’s demand remained roughly constant between 2011 and 2012.

Key messages

Freight transport volumes in the EU‑28 decreased by 2 % between 2011 and 2012, mainly due to a 3 % reduction in road freight transport (with Italy leading the road drop by 13.8 % compared to its 2011 figure). Rail transport also decreased by 4 % between 2011 and 2012, whereas IWW transport increased by 6 %. Maritime and air transport did not vary significantly. Overall, total freight transport volumes in the EU‑28 are now 10 % below the peak volumes experienced in 2007. The modal share remains constant; road transport dominates land freight transport at 75 %, followed by rail (18 %) and IWW (7 %).

Switzerland experienced a decrease of 4 % in road and rail transport, whereas Norway and Turkey’s overall land freight transport increased (by 4 % and 6 % respectively), and Iceland’s demand remained roughly constant between 2011 and 2012.

Is freight transport demand being decoupled from economic growth?

Freight transport volume and modal split within the EU

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Freight transport volumes and GDP

EEA -33 lichtenstein
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Total land freight transport within the EU-28 (road, rail and IWW) increased steadily throughout the 1990s and the early 2000s. Before the start of the recession in 2008, total transport volumes had grown by 22.4 % compared to 2000. Then, between 2007 and 2009, volumes plummeted (by 1.6 % in 2008 compared to 2007, and by 11.5 % in 2009 compared to 2008). In 2009, freight volumes were barely higher than in 2003. In 2010, volumes started growing again, but in 2011 and 2012, they dropped back by 0.2 % and 2.6 % respectively. Compared to 2000, the cumulative growth of freight volumes is still under the 10 %. In the non-EU EEA, cumulative growth between 2000 and 2012 exceeded 15 %, reaching 35 % in Iceland.
Road haulage accounted for 75 % of total inland freight movements within the EU-28 in 2012, slightly lower than in 2011. Total road freight volumes in 2012 were below their levels in 2004, but still 11 % higher than in 2000. In the EU-15, road freight transportation fell by 5.4 % in 2012 compared to 2011, varying from a 13 % drop in Italy to a 3.5 % increase in Denmark. In the EU-13, volumes grew by 4.1 %, varying from a 6.6 % drop in the Czech Republic to a 12.6 % and 14.9 % increase in Romania and Bulgaria, respectively. In the non-EU EEA member countries, road shares range from 54 % in Switzerland to 100 % in Iceland.
The tonne-kilometres transported by rail have stabilised overall. In the EU-28, rail freight volumes were slightly higher in 2012 compared to 2000 (after having reached a peak increase of 11 % in 2007, compared to 2000). In 2012, the fall in rail tonne-kilometres was larger than for road transport (− 3.6 % compared to − 3.0 %). The drop in rail in the EU-13 was larger than in the EU-15, with a 5.7 % decrease in tonne-kilometres between 2011 and 2012. In the non-EU EEA members, rail freight volumes have fallen too, by up to 4 % in Switzerland.
In 2012, 150 billion tkm of goods were transported by IWW in the EU-28, an increase of 6 % compared to 2011. Throughout the years, a slow but steady increase can be observed in the volumes transported by IWW. Compared to 2000, total tonne-kilometres in the EU-28 were up by 12 %. Here also, the EU-28 average masks important national differences. In the EU-15, tonne-kilometres have remained stable compared to 2000, while they have almost tripled in the EU-13.

At EEA-33 level, freight transport demand (by road, rail and IWW) grew at more or less the same rate as GDP in 2006 and 2007, followed by a very sharp decoupling in the first two years of the financial crisis (2008 and 2009). In 2010, this decoupling was reversed, but it picked up again in 2011 and 2012.
If we look at the evolution of freight intensity of GDP with the year 2000 as a benchmark, we see that this intensity was lower from 2001 to 2003, but increased again from 2004 to 2008. Since 2009, the freight intensity of GDP has again been lower than in 2000.
Decoupling has thus only occurred in periods of economic recession or stagnation. This is not surprising, as manufacturing tends to respond more than the service sector does to changes in economic activity (Foster-McGregor et al., 2012).
For the EU-15, the ‘road freight intensity’ of GDP has decreased steadily since 2004, and tonne-kilometres have gone down since 2007 (with a small rebound in 2010). For the EU-13, road tonne-kilometres have more than doubled since 2000. The ‘road freight intensity’ of GDP has increased by 60 % over the same period, with just one small decrease in 2009 and a stabilisation in 2011. In interpreting these data, one should bear in mind that international transport is reported according to the country of registration of the vehicle, and not according to where transport takes place.

Is the share of goods transported by road being reduced relative to other transport modes?

Freight modal split between road and rail

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In the EU-13, the share of rail in the road/rail total decreased, from 43 % in 2000 to 24 % in 2012. Since 2009, this share seems to have stabilised. It still remains higher than in the EU-15 (18 %). Compared to 2000, the share of rail in the EU-15 has increased slightly (up from 16 %).

Indicator specification and metadata

Indicator definition

Freight transport demand is defined as the amount of inland tonne-kilometres travelled every year in the EEA-33. According to the latest metadata, inland freight transport includes transport by road, rail, inland waterway, air and maritime. Transport via rail and inland waterway is based on movements within national territory ('territoriality principle'), regardless of the nationality of the vehicle or vessel; road transport is based on all movements of vehicles registered in the reporting country.

The ratio of annual growth of inland freight transport to GDP, measured in 2010 prices, determines the amount of coupling between GDP and transport. The decoupling indicator is defined as unity minus the coupling ratio, where the data index = 2000.

The modal split of freight transport is defined as the percentage share of modes (road and rail) in total inland transport. It includes transport by road, rail and inland waterway.

Units

The unit used to express freight transport volume is the tonne-kilometre (tkm), which represents the movement of one tonne over a distance of one kilometre.

GDP is Gross Domestic Product expressed in constant euros, indexed to the year 2010.

Freight transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (2000=100). 

The modal split for freight transport is shown as a percentage (%).


Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

The European Union (EU) has set an objective to disconnect mobility from its negative side effects. The transport sector is one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions and also gives rise to significant levels of air pollution, which can seriously damage human health and ecosystems. Reducing the demand for transport would consequently reduce its environmental burden. 

When considering the environmental impact of freight transport, the modal split is relevant because of the differences in environmental performance (resource consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, pollutant and noise emissions, land consumption, accidents etc.) of various transport modes. Additionally, the differences in performance within specific modes can be substantial, e.g. performance of older trains versus that of newer trains. The most accurate environmental effect of a modal shift in transport type can only be determined on a case-by-case basis, where local circumstances and specific local environmental effects can be taken into account (e.g. transport in urban areas or through sensitive areas). Opportunities for a modal shift and/or co-modality depend on, among other things, the type of goods transported (e.g. perishable goods or bulk goods) and the specific transport requirements for these goods.

Scientific references

  • No rationale references available

Policy context and targets

Context description

Minimising the negative impacts of transport is a central theme in EU transport policy:

  • The objective of decoupling freight transport demand from GDP was first mentioned in the Transport and Environment integration strategy that was adopted by the Council of Ministers in Helsinki (European Council, 1999). Here, the expected growth in transport demand was named as an area where urgent action was needed. In the sustainable development strategy that was adopted by the European Council in Gothenburg, the objective of decoupling is set in order to reduce congestion and other negative side-effects of transport (European Commission, 2001): “A sustainable transport policy should tackle rising volumes of traffic and levels of congestion, noise and pollution. Action is needed to bring about a significant decoupling of transport growth and GDP growth, in particular by a shift from road to rail, water and public passenger transport”.
  • Shifting freight from road to water and rail is an important strategic element in the EU transport policy. The objective was first formulated in the Sustainable Development Strategy in 2001 (European Commission, 2001).
  • In the White Paper on the Common Transport Policy - "European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to Decide" (European Commission, 2001) - the Commission outlines concerns for curbing the demand for transport, which included the fact that economic growth will almost automatically generate greater needs for mobility, an increasing demand for goods and services, and more passengers. The objective of breaking the link between economic growth and transport growth was therefore considered as the basis for the White Paper for the next decade. Thus, a number of measures were proposed within the White Paper, aimed at achieving a modal shift and decoupling from GDP.
  • The European Commission's White Paper on transport published in 2011 - "Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area – Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system" - acts as a framework to guide future policy developments in the transport sector over the next decade. The White Paper sets out 10 goals for a competitive and resource-efficient transport system. These goals serve as benchmarks for achieving the target of a 60 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from transport from 1990 levels, by 2050. One of these goals is that "30 % of road freight over 300 km should shift to other modes such as rail or waterborne transport by 2030, and more than 50 % by 2050, facilitated by efficient and green freight corridors"

Targets

  • Decouple transport growth significantly from growth in GDP in order to reduce congestion and other negative side effects of transport;
  • In the EU, a total of 30 % of road freight over 300 km should shift to other modes such as rail or waterborne transport by 2030, and more than 50 % should shift by 2050, facilitated by efficient and green freight corridors

Related policy documents

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

To measure the decoupling of freight transport demand from economic growth, the volume of freight transport relative to GDP (i.e. the intensity) is calculated. Separate trends for its two components are shown for the EEA-33. The annual tkm growth rate is therefore compared with the annual GDP growth rate. Relative decoupling occurs when freight transport demand grows at a rate below that of GDP. Absolute decoupling occurs when freight transport demand falls and GDP continues to rise or remains constant. If demand and GDP both fall, they remain coupled.

Freight transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (for freight transport demand: 2000=100; GDP at 2010 prices). 

A detailed description of the concepts used and data collected in the transport database can be found in Eurostat's concepts and definitions database (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ramon) .

Methodology for gap filling

No gap filling is required for this indicator.

Methodology references

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

not applicable

Data sets uncertainty

not applicable

Rationale uncertainty

not applicable

Data sources

Generic metadata

Topics:

DPSIR: Driving force
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • CSI 036
  • TERM 013
Temporal coverage:

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Diana Vedlugaite

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2014 1.1.2 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

First draft created:
24 Nov 2014, 11:19 AM
Publish date:
12 Dec 2014, 02:06 PM
Last modified:
07 Mar 2016, 03:08 PM

Frequency of updates

Updates are scheduled once per year

Permalinks

Document Actions

For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/freight-transport-demand-version-2/assessment-4 or scan the QR code.

PDF generated on 22 Jul 2017, 08:01 PM

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