Forest growth

Indicator Assessment
Prod-ID: IND-186-en
Also known as: CLIM 034
expired Created 14 Nov 2012 Published 22 Nov 2012 Last modified 20 Dec 2016
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The area covered by forests and other wooded land in Europe (39 EEA countries) has increased for many decades. Forest biomass in the EEA region is also growing, and the average growth rate has increased from 1990 to 2010. In some central and western areas of Europe, forest growth has been reduced in the last 10 years due to storms, pests and diseases. Future climate change and increasing CO 2 concentrations are expected to affect site suitability, productivity, species composition and biodiversity, and thus have an impact on the goods and services that the forests provide. In general, forest growth is projected to increase in northern Europe and to decrease in southern Europe.

Key messages

  • The area covered by forests and other wooded land in Europe (39 EEA countries) has increased for many decades.
  • Forest biomass in the EEA region is also growing, and the average growth rate has increased from 1990 to 2010.
  • In some central and western areas of Europe, forest growth has been reduced in the last 10 years due to storms, pests and diseases.
  • Future climate change and increasing CO2 concentrations are expected to affect site suitability, productivity, species composition and biodiversity, and thus have an impact on the goods and services that the forests provide. In general, forest growth is projected to increase in northern Europe and to decrease in southern Europe.

How is climate change affecting forest growth in Europe?

Impacts and consequences of climate change on forest growth and forest conditions

Impacts and consequences of climate change on forest growth and forest conditions

Note: Table shows the impacts and consequences of climate change on forest growth and forest conditions.

Data source:

Data provenance info is missing.

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Past trends

Since the 20th century, the annual increment of forests in Europe (in terms of area and growing stock) has increased due to advances in forest management practices, genetic improvement and, in central Europe, the cessation of site-degrading practices. Abandoned farmland in high and mid latitudes is reverting to forest, which store much more carbon than the previous cropland.

Forests and other wooded land cover approximately 190 million ha. (1.9 million km2) in the EEA region, and this area has increased over the last decades [i]. Forest biomass has also grown over the past two decades, at an accelerating rate, as a consequence of a number of factors. A time series for 17 EEA countries shows an increase in growing stock from 85 million m3 (5.4 m3 ha-1) in 1990 to 110 million m3 (5.9 m3 ha-1) in 2010 [ii]. This has been explained primarily by the growth of young forests in Europe, which have not reached maturity, and by the increasing carbon concentration in the atmosphere. Furthermore, several studies have already noted longer growing seasons in several species, shifts in tree line and changes in species distribution. However, in some central and western forest areas of Europe, forest growth has been reduced in the last 10 years due to storms, pests and diseases.

Projections

Many aspects of projected climate change will impact forest growth and productivity (see Figure 1) [iii]. Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere might act as a fertiliser for plants and enables them to use water more efficiently, but this effect seems to be strongly dependent on local conditions such as moisture stress and soil nutrient availability and it might be limited to young trees. Nitrogen deposition may enhance forest growth in particular areas where plant-available nitrogen is still the limiting factor depending on soil, climate, vegetation, deposition history and use. However, nitrogen deposition can also enhance the risk of forest decline, if critical loads are exceeded. The concentrations of nitrogen oxides due to fossil fuel combustion are still high in spite of increased use of catalytic convertors. The high concentrations of reduced nitrogen from intensive agriculture, like ammonia are still a matter of concern for forests in the air causing eutrophication [iv]. Increases in ground-level ozone are likely in some regions due to warmer temperatures, which would cause a decrease in forest health and growth, which in turn has critical implications for forest distributions and future rates of carbon sequestration [v].

In general, forest productivity is projected to increase in areas with increased water availability, if appropriate tree species are growing there, while it is projected to decrease where water is scarce and projected to decline further. Wherever droughts increase, forest productivity is expected to decrease. Overall, climate change is projected to have a positive effect on the growing stocks in northern Europe and a negative effect in some regions in southern Europe. However, quantitative projections are not currently available as existing studies on future climate impacts on forests focus on effects on individual species.

[i] Forest Europe, UNECE and FAO, State of Europe’s forests, 2011: status & trends in sustainable forest management in Europe. (Aas, Norway: Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe, Forest Europe, Liaison Unit Oslo, 2011), http://www.twosides.info:8080/content/rsPDF_223.pdf.

[ii] Forest Europe, UNECE and FAO, State of Europe’s forests, 2011.

[iii] Svein Solberg et al., „Analyses of the impact of changes in atmospheric deposition and climate on forest growth in European monitoring plots: A stand growth approach“, Forest Ecology and Management 258, Nr. 8 (September 2009): 1735–1750, doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.09.057.

[iv] M A Sutton, The European Nitrogen Assessment: Sources, Effects, and Policy Perspectives (Cambridge, UK; New York: Cambridge University Press, 2011).

[v] R. Matyssek et al., „Forests under climate change and air pollution: Gaps in understanding and future directions for research“, Environmental Pollution 160 (Januar 2012): 57–65, doi:10.1016/j.envpol.2011.07.007.

Indicator specification and metadata

Indicator definition

  • Forest area
  • Volume of forest biomass

    Units

    • km2
    • m3

    Rationale

    Justification for indicator selection

    Tree growth is controlled by complex interactions between climate and non-climate factors, with forest management having a significant effect. Trees have long been known to respond to changes in climate: variations in tree ring widths from one year to another are recognised as an important source of climatic information although difficult to interpret. Climate change is expected to influence forest composition and productivity. Increases in atmospheric CO2, changes in temperature and the availability of water will affect the relative health and productivity of different species in complex ways. CO2 has a direct impact on tree function and forest productivity. An increased concentration in the atmosphere stimulates photosynthesis and likely results in an increase in growth rates and leaf area, if other factors are not limiting. Increased temperatures generally speed up plant growth, rates of decomposition and nutrient cycling, though other factors like availability of water also influence these processes. Higher temperatures lengthen the growing season by advancing its start in spring and delaying its end in fall.

    Climate change is expected to present several threats to forest growth and productivity such as increased frequency and severity of summer drought with impacts on drought-sensitive tree species, in particular on shallow, freely draining soils. Indirect effects on forest productivity are expected through changes to the frequency and severity of pest and disease outbreaks, increasing populations of damaging insects and mammals, and the impact of existing and new invasive species. Concurrent changes in nitrogen and sulphur deposition and increased levels of ozone pollution are also expected to have an impact. Nitrogen deposition can stimulate forest growth but it can also increase the susceptibility of trees to drought, diseases, pests and frost by causing acidification and nutrient imbalances, thus decreasing forest vitality. Based on the current understanding of these processes, the individual effects of climate and non-climate changes are difficult to disentangle.

    Scientific references

    Policy context and targets

    Context description

    In April 2013 the European Commission presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package (http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation/what/documentation_en.htm). This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change /* COM/2013/0216 final */ and a number of supporting documents. One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which should occur through Bridging the knowledge gap and Further developing Climate-ADAPT as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Further objectives include Promoting action by Member States and Climate-proofing EU action: promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors. Many EU Member States have already taken action, such as by adopting national adaptation strategies, and several have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation.

    The European Commission and the European Environment Agency have developed the European Climate Adaptation Platform (Climate-ADAPT, http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/) to share knowledge on observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health; on relevant research; on EU, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans; and on adaptation case studies.

    Targets

    No targets have been specified.

    Related policy documents

    • Climate-ADAPT: Mainstreaming adaptation in EU sector policies
      Overview of EU sector policies in which mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change is ongoing or explored
    • Climate-ADAPT: National adaptation strategies
      Overview of activities of EEA member countries in preparing, developing and implementing adaptation strategies
    • DG CLIMA: Adaptation to climate change
      Adaptation means anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they can cause, or taking advantage of opportunities that may arise. It has been shown that well planned, early adaptation action saves money and lives in the future. This web portal provides information on all adaptation activities of the European Commission.
    • EU Adaptation Strategy Package
      In April 2013, the European Commission adopted an EU strategy on adaptation to climate change, which has been welcomed by the EU Member States. The strategy aims to make Europe more climate-resilient. By taking a coherent approach and providing for improved coordination, it enhances the preparedness and capacity of all governance levels to respond to the impacts of climate change.

    Methodology

    Methodology for indicator calculation

    Data stems from the report mentioned below.

    Methodology for gap filling

    Not applicable

    Methodology references

    Uncertainties

    Methodology uncertainty

    Not applicable

    Data sets uncertainty

    It is very difficult to separate the impacts of climate change on forests and forestry from non-climate influences (e.g. related to management) in observational data. Therefore, efforts to understand the impacts of climate change on forests and forestry are largely based on controlled experiments in laboratories and on small forest plots, and on model simulations.

    Information on forest fires is collected in the European Fire Database at the JRC. The European forest fire database is an important component of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS). Forest fire data are provided each year by individual EU Member States through several EU regulations, and additional data coming from other European countries have been checked, stored and managed by JRC within EFFIS. The quality of the data is high. A time series on forest fires exists back to 1980 for the five European countries most affected by forest fires. Currently, the database covers data from 22 countries in Europe and contains over 2 million individual fire event records.

    Further information on uncertainties is provided in Section 1.7 of the EEA report on Climate change, impacts, and vulnerability in Europe 2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012/)

    Rationale uncertainty

    No uncertainty has been specified

    Data sources

    Generic metadata

    Topics:

    information.png Tags:
    ,
    DPSIR: Impact
    Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
    Indicator codes
    • CLIM 034
    Temporal coverage:
    information.png Geographic coverage:

    Countries

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    Dates

    First draft created:
    14 Nov 2012, 11:12 AM
    Publish date:
    22 Nov 2012, 11:48 AM
    Last modified:
    20 Dec 2016, 04:17 PM

    Frequency of updates

    Updates are scheduled every 4 years

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