Indicator Assessment
Forest fire danger
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- In a warmer climate, more severe fire weather is expected and, as a consequence, more area burned, more ignitions and longer fire seasons.
- Climate change will increase the fire potential during summer months, especially in southern and central Europe.
- The period during which fire danger exists will become longer as a result of climate change, with a probable increase in the frequency of extreme fire danger days in spring and autumn.
Average annual changes in fire danger level 1958-2006
Note: Based on use of Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR)
Camia, A.; Amatulli G.; San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2008. Past and future trends of forest fire danger in Europe. EUR Technical Report (EUR 23124).
Modelled three-monthly fire danger levels in Europe for 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 and change between these periods
Note: Based on the IPCC SRES high emissions A2 scenario and the HIRAM model
Camia, A.; Amatulli G.; San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2008. Past and future trends of forest fire danger in Europe. EUR Technical Report (EUR 23124).
Past trends
Fire risk depends on many factors of a different nature that change over time (e.g. weather, fuel load, fuel type and condition, forest management practices, socio-economic context). Historic fire series can be used to support statements on trends but, unfortunately, long and consistent time series of fire events are rarely available in Europe. In addition, by looking at the historic fire series alone, it is difficult to get a clear picture and recognize the effect of climate on fire potential. In contrast, meteorological fire danger indices, which are designed to rate the component of fire risk that depends on weather conditions, can be usefully employed to analyse fire trends in a consistent way over longer periods. These indices, normally applied on a daily basis, can be summarised on a seasonal basis to rate the overall fire potential of a given year (seasonal fire severity) due to meteorological conditions. The index of Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR) has been derived from daily values of Van Wagner's Fire Weather Index (FWI), Van Wagner (1987), the fire danger assessment method most widely applied throughout the world (San Miguel-Ayanz et al., 2003). Results of a recent study on SSR development are shown in Figure 1.
The average trend for 1958-2006 was computed for all the grid cells, but it was statistically significant for only 21 % of the cases (15 % positive and 6 % negative), which appear to be concentrated in specific geographical areas.
Projections
Projections were derived for the IPCC SRES scenario A2, processing data from the PRUDENCE data archive, namely the daily-high resolution data (12 km) from the HIRHAM model run by DMI, for the time periods 1960-1990 (control) and 2070-2100 (projections) (see Figure 2). In agreement with a similar assessment performed for North America (Flannigan et al., 2005), the results for Europe confirm a significant increase of fire potential, an enlargement of the fire-prone area and a lengthening of the fire season.
Indicator definition
- Average annual changes in fire danger level 1958-2006
- Modelled three-monthly fire danger levels in Europe for 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 and change between these periods
Units
Policy context and targets
Context description
No context has been specified
Targets
No targets have been specified
Related policy documents
No related policy documents have been specified
Methodology
Methodology for indicator calculation
Methodology for gap filling
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf
Methodology references
No methodology references available.
Uncertainties
Methodology uncertainty
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf
Data sets uncertainty
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf
Rationale uncertainty
No uncertainty has been specified
Data sources
-
EFFIS data
provided by Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Other info
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
- CLIM 035
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- IND-185-en
Geographic coverage
Temporal coverage
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/forest-fire-danger/forest-fire-danger-assessment-published or scan the QR code.
PDF generated on 31 Oct 2020, 03:20 AM
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