Assessment versions

Published (reviewed and quality assured)

• 08 Sep 2008, 12:00 AM
  - Forest fire danger

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

Wildfires are a serious threat to forests and ecosystems in Europe and climate is the most important driving force affecting fire potential changes over time (Flannigan et al., 2000). Although it is generally recognised that the occurrence of forest fires in Europe is due mainly to causes of an anthropogenic nature, the total burned area changes significantly from year to year largely because of weather conditions. Changes in fire regimes may have strong impacts on natural resources and ecosystem stability, with consequent direct and indirect economic losses. On other hand active forest and fire management practices can counteract the impacts of a changing climate to some extent.

Scientific references

• References Camia, A.; Amatulli G.; San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2008. Past and future trends of forest fire danger in Europe. EUR Technical Report (EUR 23124). Cannell, M. G. R.; Thornley, J. H. M.; Mobbs, D. C. and Friend, A. D., 1998. UK conifer forests may be growing faster in response to increased N deposition, atmospheric CO2 and temperature. Forestry 71: 277-296. Flannigan, M. D.; Amiro, B. D.; Logan, K. A.; Stocks, B. J. and Wotton, B. M., 2005. Forest Fires and Climate Change in the 21st Century. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. Springer 11: 847-859. Flannigan, M. D.; Stocks, B. J.; Wotton, B. M., 2000. Climate Change and Forest Fires. The Science of the Total Environment 262 (3): 221-229. San Miguel-Ayanz, J.; Carlson, J. D.; Alexander, M.; Tolhurst, K.; Morgan, G.; Sneeuwjagt, R. and Dudley, M., 2003. Current Methods to Assess Fire Danger Potential. In: Wildland Fire Danger Estimation and Mapping. The Role of Remote Sensing Data (E. Chuvieco, Ed.) World Scientific Publishing. Singapore, pp. 21-61. Van Wagner, C. E., 1987. Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Canadian Forestry Service, Ottawa, Ontario. Forestry Technical Report 35. 37 pp.

Indicator definition

• Average annual changes in fire danger level 1958-2006
• Modelled three-monthly fire danger levels in Europe for 1961-1990 and 2071-2100 and change between these periods
  

Units

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp111-148CC2008_ch5-7to9_Terrestrial_ecosystems_soil_and_agriculture.pdf

Policy context and targets

Context description

No context has been specified

Targets

No targets have been specified

Related policy documents

No related policy documents have been specified

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp111-148CC2008_ch5-7to9_Terrestrial_ecosystems_soil_and_agriculture.pdf

Methodology for gap filling

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Data specifications

EEA data references

• No datasets have been specified here.

External data references

• EFFIS data

Data sources in latest figures

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Data sets uncertainty

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified