Indicator Assessment
Emissions of primary particulates - outlook from WBCSD
In OECD-Europe countries efforts have been underway for decades to reduce particulates (PM-10). Progress in reducing total PM-10 has been slower. Emissions per vehicle kilometer for light-duty vehicles have been substantially reduced. But growth in transport activity and problems in controlling in-use emissions have tended to offset some of the hoped-for improvements.
The situation regarding primary particulates in the countries of Eastern Europe, Caucasus, Central Asia and South Eastern Europe, especially in rapidly-growing urbanized areas, is somewhat different. PM is expected not to be reduced as easily or as quickly. It is expected that total PM emissions will increase certainly for the next few decades and perhaps longer, before eventually declining.
Projections of average emissions (g/km) across vehicle stock, by PM-10
Note: No individual countries are presented
WBCSD (2004), World Business Council for Sustainable Development, (2004), Mobility 2030: Meeting the challenges to sustainability Online available spread sheet
Projections of total emissions of PM Light-duty Vehicles, Freight Trucks, Buses, and 2-3 wheelers (thousand tonnes per year)
Note: No individual countries are presented
WBCSD (2004), World Business Council for Sustainable Development, (2004) Mobility 2030: Meeting the challenges to sustainability Online available spread sheets
In OECD-Europe countries efforts have been underway for decades to reduce particulates (PM-10). Progress in reducing total PM-10 has been slower. Emissions per vehicle kilometer for light-duty vehicles have been substantially reduced. But growth in transport activity and problems in controlling in-use emissions have tended to offset some of the hoped-for improvements.
It now appears that the efforts to curtail the total volume of emissions of PM are bearing fruit. Much tighter vehicle emissions standards have been enacted, and the equipment to support them is being installed on new vehicles. The cleaner fuels required to permit this equipment to operate effectively are being produced and made widely available, at least in the developed world. For these reasons, it reasonable to project sharp reductions in the emissions of these "conventional" pollutants given policies now in place (or about to be implemented) in most OECD-Europe countries.
The situation regarding particulates in the Eastern Europe (especially its rapidly-growing urbanized areas) is somewhat different. PM-10 emissions will not be reduced as easily or as quickly. Transport activity is projected to grow much more rapidly in most Eastern Europe, Caucasus, Central Asia and South Eastern Europe countries and regions than in the OECD Europe. The rate of introduction of vehicle pollution control technology and the necessary related fuels in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, Central Asia and South Eastern Europe countries lags considerably behind that in OECD Europe. In the reference scenario, this lag is projected to continue but not worsen. It is assumed that assuring compliance with pollution control standards may prove more difficult in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, Central Asia and South Eastern Europethan OECD countries.
It is expected that total emissions of PM will increase in many countries of Eastern Europe, Caucasus, Central Asia and South Eastern Europe (FSU on the graph), certainly for the next few decades and perhaps longer, before eventually declining.
The main reason of the decreasing amount of PM emissions appeared from the implementations of the strict standards and controls required by the accessed EU emission sectoral legislation and accordingly to the main policy, which addressed air pollution issues in Europe, the National emission ceilings directive. While temporary increasing of PM in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, Central Asia and South Eastern Europecountries are caused by increasing economical growth and, therefore, transport activity in the region.
Indicator definition
Definition: Generally, the indicator 'Emissions of primary particulates include PM 10 and PM 2,5. "PM10" means particulate matter which passes through a size-selective inlet with a 50 % efficiency cut-off at 10 mm aerodynamic diameter; "PM2,5" means particulate matter which passes through a size-selective inlet with a 50 % efficiency cut-off at 2,5mm aerodynamic diameter.
The outlook from IEA/SMP model provides information about PM-10 from the transport sector.
Model used: IEA/SMP
Ownership: World Business Council for Sustainable Development
Temporal coverage: 1990 - 2050
Geographical coverage: OECD Europe: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom; OECD North America: USA, Canada, Mexico; Former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan
Eastern Europe: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Serbia and Montenegro; India; China
Units
The indicator is measured in thousand tonnes per year and for the form of average numbers gram per kilometer is used.
Policy context and targets
Context description
EU policy context
There are no specific european emission targets set for primary PM10 and PM2,5. However, there are several Directives and Protocols that affect the emissions of primary PM10 and PM2,5, including air quality standards for PM in the First Daughter Directive to the Framework Directive on Ambient Air Quality and emission standards for specific mobile and stationary sources for primary PM precursor emissions.
EECCA policy context
Implement transport strategies for sustainable development in order to ...to improve urban air quality, including through the development of better vehicle technologies that are more environmentally sound, affordable and socially acceptable ( EECCA Strategy)
Targets
There are no specific Pan-European emission targets set for primary PM2,5 and PM10. However, emissions of the precursors NOx, SOx and NH3 are covered by the NECD and the Gothenburg Protocol to the UNECE LRTAP Convention. Both instruments contain emission ceilings (limits) that countries must meet by 2010.
Table 1. Percentage reduction required by 2010 compared to 1990 levels by country, for aggregated emissions of the secondary particulate precursors NOx, SOx and NH3 (individual pollutant emission ceilings weighted by particulate formation potential factors prior to aggregation).
Country group | Country | NECD Targets 1990 -2010 (particulate precursors) | Gothenburg Target 1990 -2010 (particulate precursors) |
EU-15 | Austria | -40% | -40% |
EU-15 | Belgium | -56% | -53% |
EU-15 | Denmark | -56% | -52% |
EU-15 | Finland | -47% | -42% |
EU-15 | France | -51% | -49% |
EU-15 | Germany | -74% | -63% |
EU-15 | Greece | 9% | 5% |
EU-15 | Ireland | -44% | -32% |
EU-15 | Italy | -53% | -42% |
EU-15 | Luxembourg | -34% | -12% |
EU-15 | Netherlands | -54% | -52% |
EU-15 | Portugal | -17% | -4% |
EU-15 | Spain | -45% | -30% |
EU-15 | Sweden | -45% | -42% |
EU-15 | United Kingdom | -68% | -55% |
NewEU-12 | Bulgaria | -34% | 9% |
NewEU-12 | Cyprus | 33% | |
NewEU-12 | Czech Republic | -75% | -53% |
NewEU-12 | Estonia | -45% |
|
NewEU-12 | Hungary | -40% | -23% |
NewEU-12 | Latvia | -5% | 25% |
NewEU-12 | Lithuania | -21% | -14% |
NewEU-12 | Malta | -20% |
|
NewEU-12 | Poland | -43% | -21% |
NewEU-12 | Romania | 3% | 3% |
NewEU-12 | Slovakia | -62% | -31% |
NewEU-12 | Slovenia | -62% | -22% |
EU-27 | -53% | - | |
CC3 | Turkey | - | -83% |
EFTA4 | Iceland | - | - |
EFTA4 | Liechtenstein | - | -20% |
EFTA4 | Norway | - | -28% |
EFTA4 | Switzerland | - | -44% |
Other related targets
- Member States shall take the measures necessary to ensure that concentrations of PM10 in ambient air do not exceed the limit values.
The margins of tolerance laid down in Section I of Annex III shall apply in accordance with Article 8 of Directive 96/62/EC.
- Member States shall ensure that measuring stations to supply data on concentrations of PM2,5 are installed and operated. Each Member State shall choose the number and the siting of the stations at which PM2,5 is to be measured as representative of concentrations of PM2,5 within that Member State. Where possible sampling points for PM2,5 shall be co-located with sampling points for PM10.
- Action plans for PM10 prepared in accordance with Article 8 of Directive 96/62/EC and general strategies for decreasing concentrations of PM10 shall also aim to reduce concentrations of PM2,5.
- Member States may designate zones or agglomerations within which limit values for PM10 are exceeded owing to concentrations of PM10 in ambient air due to the resuspension of particulates following the winter sanding of roads.
EECCA level
- Implement transport strategies for sustainable development in order to ...improve urban air quality, including through the development of better vehicle technologies that are more environmentally sound, affordable and socially acceptable ( EECCA Strategy)
Links to other policy links
Related policy documents
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1999 Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone
Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution 1999 Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone, amended on 4 May 2012.
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UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution
UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution.
Methodology
Methodology for indicator calculation
PM emissions were calculated within the IEA/SMP model for transport sector. PM2,5 are excluded from calculation procedures.
At a world regional average level of aggregation, there is no information in the model about where vehicles are traveling (e.g. urban v. rural) or how various emissions translate into atmospheric concentrations. The emissions trends are included to provide a general directional sense of whether total emissions from road vehicles increasing or decreasing over time. Five types of pollutants are tracked: nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM-10), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC or VOC) and lead (Pb). A pollutant emission tracking has been developed only for road vehicles - no tracking for rail, air or shipping.
The approach used for light-duty vehicles has been to rely primarily on existing tailpipe emissions standards for new vehicles around the world, and the announced plans for phase-in of future, generally tighter, standards. For the developing world, in cases where information on existing or planned future standards was unavailable, simple assumptions were made regarding adoption of standards similar to the EU system (EURO 1 through EURO 5) in the future, at a certain time-lag after these have been implemented in Europe.
For other road vehicles (2/3 wheelers, trucks and buses), since the model does not track new vehicles or stock turnover, but only the existing stock of vehicles, estimates are based on assumed average emissions across the vehicle stock, and evolution of this average.
Several types of data are thus needed to generate estimates: average emissions for new and existing vehicles in the base year (2000), and estimated emissions of new vehicles, or in the case of non-LDVs estimated improvements in the stock average, in the future. While the new LDV emissions estimates are based primarily on current and future emissions standards, other sources were needed for the estimates related to existing vehicles. Few such sources exist that cover non-OECD regions.
The best source found for average in-use emissions in 2000 was a very recent (and as of May 2004, still unpublished) report from an OECD Environment Directorate study, part of their MOVE II project. The IEA has not been involved in that study, but obtained relevant estimates through internal communication. The study is highly relevant since it generates average emissions for all types of road vehicles by region (with a similar but not identical regional classification system as used here), vehicle type, vehicle vintage, and emissions control category (with seven categories, from uncontrolled up through the equivalent of EURO IV control levels). However, the authors warn that estimates are not final and could change. The IEA also relied on input from SMP Workstreams 2 and 3, including both data and review of the estimates and projections contained herein.
An important difference between the projections here and the OECD projections is the assumption here that all world regions will eventually adopt the same emissions standards being implemented in OECD regions. The OECD report restricts improvements to those emissions standards already announced or nearly finalized. This leads to a large difference in the projection - if developing regions do not continue to follow the OECD country lead (with some regions such as Africa and the Middle East assumed not to adopt any standards at all), then total emissions for each of the four pollutants in the developing world rises over time, rather than dropping in the projections are used here, with the assumption of a 10-15 year lag time in adopting OECD emissions standards in the developing world (described in more detail here).
Overview of the SMP Spreadsheet Model
(The flowchart on the page 4 of the IEA/SMP spreadsheet provides an example of the logic behind the model on the basis of light-duty vehicles(e.g. automobiles)).
The model was produced in a framework of the Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) implemented by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development and International Energy Agency.
The IEA/SMP Transport Spreadsheet Model is designed to handle all transport modes and most vehicle types. It produces projections of vehicle stocks, travel, energy use and other indicators through 2050 for a reference case and for various policy cases and scenarios. It is designed to have some technology-oriented detail and to allow fairly detailed bottom-up modeling. The SMP spreadsheet model 1.60 is the most recent version and is available for a more detailed inspection (and use, though no user guide has been prepared and there are no plans, at this time, of providing on-going usersupport for the model. A very basic outline of how to use the model is provided in the first sheet of the model spreadsheet).
The model does not include any representation of economic relationships (e.g., elasticities) nor does it track costs. Rather, it is an "accounting" model, anchored by the "ASIF" identity:
- Activity (passenger and freight travel)
- Structure (travel shares by mode and vehicle type)
- Intensity (fuel efficiency)
- Fuel type = fuel use by fuel type (and CO2 emissions per unit fuel use).
Various indicators are tracked and characterized by coefficients per unit travel, per vehicle or per unit fuel use as appropriate.
The modes, technologies, fuels, regions and basic variables are included in the spreadsheet model. Not all technologies or variables are covered for all modes. Apart from energy use, the model tracks emissions of CO2, and CO2-equivalent GHG emissions (from vehicles as well as upstream), PM, NOx, HC, CO and Pb. Projections of safety (fatalities and injuries) are also incorporated.
The most detailed segment of the model covers light-duty vehicles. The flow chart on the page 4 of the Model Documentation provides an overview of the key linkages in the light-duty vehicle section of the model. For other passenger modes (such as buses, 2-wheelers), the approach is similar, however there is no stock model. Stocks are projected directly; vehicle sales needed to achieve these stocks is not currently tracked.
Overview of the projections, regions and viraibales used by the IEA/SMP transport spreadsheet model is peresented in the table below:
Sectors / Modes | Vehicle | Regions | Variables |
Light-duty | * Internal combustion engine: | * OECD Europe | Passenger kilometres |
Key model assumptions for the reference case
The reference case projects one possible set of future conditions, based on recent trends in various important indicators and other variables. Adjustments are made for expected deviations from recent trends due to factors such as existing policies, population projections, income projections and expected availability of new technologies. Expectations for other future changes in trends, such as saturations in vehicle ownership, are also incorporated.
In general, no major new policies are assumed to be implemented beyond those already implemented in 2003. An exception to this is where there is clear evidence of what might be called "policy trajectories" - future policy actions that are either explicit or implicit in other trends. For example, a clear trend is emerging in the developing world to adopt vehicle emissions standards of a form similar to those already implemented in OECD countries. It is assumed that this "policy trajectory" will continue in the future. In contrast, no such policy trajectory is evident for reduced light-duty vehicle (LDV) fuel consumption; we therefore only incorporate existing fuel consumption programmes through the year they currently end; we assume a return after that date to historical (non-policy-driven) trends in fuel consumption.
In general, the model tried to avoid introducing significant changes in trends after 2030. We run the trends assumed to exist in 2030 out to 2050 in order to see the net effects and directions in that latter year of actions and events that often occurred years earlier.
For more infomation click here.
Calculation of emissions
Pollutant emissions tracking was implemented in the model to allow the Sustainable Mobility Project to better understand the vehicle emissions trends that result from the projection of vehicle sales, stocks and travel. At a world regional average level of aggregation, there is no information in the model about where vehicles are traveling (e.g. urban v. rural) or how various emissions translate into atmospheric concentrations. The emissions trends are included to provide a general directional sense of whether total emissions from road vehicles increasing or decreasing over time. Five types of pollutants are tracked: nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM-10), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC or VOC) and lead (Pb). Note that for lead, a different approach is used which is discussed after the other pollutants. Pollutant emissions tracking have been developed only for road vehicles - no tracking for rail, air or shipping.
The approach used for light-duty vehicles has been to rely primarily on existing tailpipe emissions standards for new vehicles around the world, and the announced plans for phase-in of future, generally tighter, standards. For the developing world, in cases where information on existing or planned future standards was unavailable, simple assumptions were made regarding adoption of standards similar to the EU system (EURO 1 through EURO 5) in the future, at a certain time-lag after these have been implemented in Europe.
For other road vehicles (2/3 wheelers, trucks and buses), since the model does not track new vehicles or stock turnover, but only the existing stock of vehicles, estimates are based on assumed average emissions across the vehicle stock, and evolution of this average.Methodology for gap filling
No methodology for gap filling has been specified. Probably this info has been added together with indicator calculation.
Methodology references
Uncertainties
Methodology uncertainty
Uncertainties related to indicator calculation
All data should be based on movements on national territory, regardless of the nationality of the vehicle. It is unknown what the assumptions are regarding movement of the transport when the assigned regions.
Uncertainties related to IEA/SMP transport model
The model does not include any representation of economic relationships (e.g.,
elasticities) nor does it track costs. The IEA has a cost-optimization model capable of this, the ETP model, but this model was not employed in the SMP's work due to its lack of transparency and its complexity.
Data sets uncertainty
The table below provides a simplified picture of what types of variables and the level of
detail modelled for each major transport mode in the IEA/SMP transport spreadsheet model. As can be seen in the next table, there is a range of coverage by mode, as well as variations in the quality of the data available (indicated by x or i). In general, there is better data available for light-duty vehicles than for other modes, though for non-OECD regions most data is quite poor, except for aggregate estimates of transport energy consumption. New vehicle characteristics are only tracked for light-duty vehicles; existing stock is used as the basic vehicle indicator for all other modes.
The reference case includes the modes and variables identified in the table below:
Modes and Variables Covered in the Reference Case Projection
| Auto | Air | Truck | Frt | Pass | Buss | Mini- | 2-3 | Water |
OECD regions |
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Activity (passenger | * | * | * | * | * | * | i | i |
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New vehicle | * |
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Stock-average | * | * | * | * | * | * | i | i |
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Calculation of | * | * | * | * | * | i | i | i |
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Non-OECD regions |
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Activity (passenger | i | * | i | * | * | i | i | i |
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New vehicle | i |
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Stock-average | i | i | i | i | i | i | i | i |
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Calculation of | i | * | i | * | * | i | i | i | * |
Note: * = have data of fair to good reliability; i = have data but incomplete or of poor reliability; blank = have nothing or have not attempted to project. Note that data of fair reliability is available for energy use across all road vehicles in non-OECD countries, but breaking this out into various road modes (cars, trucks, buses, 2- wheelers) is difficult and relatively unreliable.
For more information click here.
Rationale uncertainty
No uncertainty has been specified
Data sources
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Input data for the IEA/SPM model - secondary data from different sources
provided by -
Input data to EIA/SMP model - GDP (WEO)
provided by World Energy Outlook (WEO) -
Output from IEA/SMP model - emissions of primary particulates
provided by -
Input data to IEA/SMP model - Average Pollutant Emissions for Existing Vehicles in 2000 (g/km) - output from the report OECD Environment Directorate study, (part of the MOVE II project)
provided by
Other info
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
- Outlook 024
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For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/emissions-of-primary-particulates-outlook-1/emissions-of-primary-particulates-outlook or scan the QR code.
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