Distribution of plant species

Indicator Assessment
Prod-ID: IND-184-en
Also known as: CLIM 022
Created 08 Sep 2008 Published 08 Sep 2008 Last modified 28 Jun 2016
Note: new version is available!
Climate change, in particular milder winters, is responsible for the observed northward and uphill distribution shifts of many European plant species. Mountain ecosystems in many parts of Europe are changing as pioneer species expand uphill and cold-adapted species are driven out of their ranges. By the late 21st century, distributions of European plant species are projected to have shifted several hundred kilometres to the north, forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north, and 60 % of mountain plant species may face extinction. The rate of change will exceed the ability of many species to adapt, especially as landscape fragmentation may restrict movement.

Update planned for November 2012

Key messages

  • Climate change, in particular milder winters, is responsible for the observed northward and uphill distribution shifts of many European plant species. Mountain ecosystems in many parts of Europe are changing as pioneer species expand uphill and cold-adapted species are driven out of their ranges.
  • By the late 21st century, distributions of European plant species are projected to have shifted several hundred kilometres to the north, forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north, and 60 % of mountain plant species may face extinction.
  • The rate of change will exceed the ability of many species to adapt, especially as landscape fragmentation may restrict movement.

Increase in species richness on Swiss Alpine mountain summits in 20th century

Increase in species richness on Swiss Alpine mountain summits in 20th century

Note: Endemic, coldadapted species are declining as pioneer species drive them out of their characteristic niches due warming conditions

Data source:

Walther, G-R.; Berger, S. and Sykes, M. T., 2005. An ecological 'footprint'; of climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B Biological Sciences 272: 14271432.

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Projected changes in number of plant species in 2050

Projected changes in number of plant species in 2050

Note: Results for stable area per grid cell, using the EuroMove model with HadCM2 A2 climate scenario.

Data source:

Bakkenes, M.; Eickhout, B. and Alkemade, R., 2006. Impacts of different climate stabilisation scenarios on plants species in Europe. Global Environmental Change 16: 2006.

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Past trends

Warmer temperatures in the past 30 years have significantly influenced seasonal patterns across Europe. As evidenced during glacial and inter-glacial periods, the predominant adaptive response of temperature-sensitive plant species has been to shift distributions, resulting in northward and altitudinal movements. One such climate-limited species is holly (Ilex aquifolium), which has expanded in southern Scandinavia in a manner consistent and synchronous with recorded regional climate changes, linked in particular with increasing winter temperatures (Walther et al., 2005).
Mountain ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change (IPCC, 2007). There has been a general increase in mountain summit species in Europe since the Little Ice Age in the 18th century. In Switzerland, for example, the uphill shift of Alpine plants showed an accelerating trend towards the end of the 20th century that is likely to be linked with the extraordinarily warm conditions of the 1990s (Walther et al., 2005) (Figure 1). Evidence also emerged of declines in cold-adapted species as warming conditions and pioneer species drove these from their characteristic niches. Similar observations are expected from current European monitoring programs (e.g. GLORIA) for which results will be available by the end of 2008. In the Swedish Scandes, the tree line of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) rose by 150-200 metres as warmer winters significantly lowered mortality and increased rates of establishment. Observations from other continents show that uphill tree line migration is a global phenomenon that could become a major threat to biodiversity in high mountains (Kullman, 2006; 2007; Pauli et al., 2007).

Projections

Projections indicate that, by the late 21st century, the potential range of many European plant species may shift several hundred kilometres in a northerly direction. This is several times faster than past rates as estimated from the Quaternary record or from historic data (Huntley, 2007). The distribution of tree species is also likely change significantly, with forests expanding in the north and contracting in the south, and broadleaved species replacing native coniferous species in western and central Europe (IPCC, 2007).
Modelling of late 21st century distributions of 1 350 European plant species under a range of scenarios led to the conclusion that more than half will be at the edge of their geographic and altitudinal ranges and could become threatened by 2080, with high risks of extinction (Thuiller et al., 2005). The greatest changes are projected for endemic plant species in Mediterranean, Euro-Siberian and many mountain regions. Mountain communities may face up to a 60 % loss of plant species under high emission scenarios, reversing the 20th century trend outlined above (Thuiller et al., 2005; IPCC, 2007).
Bakkenes et al. (2006) obtained similar results from modelling stable areas of plant species distribution for this century under different climate change scenarios (Figure 2). This study suggests that 10-50 % of plant species in European countries are likely to disappear by 2100 from their current location in the absence of climate change mitigation. Again, species in southeast and southwest Europe are likely to be worst affected. This number will be higher if migration is restricted due to continuing fragmentation or if there is competition with invasive species.

Indicator specification and metadata

Indicator definition

  • Increase in species richness on Swiss Alpine mountain summits in 20th century
  • Projected changes in number of plant species in 2050

Units

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp111-148CC2008_ch5-7to9_Terrestrial_ecosystems_soil_and_agriculture.pdf


Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

The rate of climate change is likely to exceed the adaptive capacity of some wild plant species (IPCC, 2007), whilst others are expected to benefit from changing environmental conditions (Sobrino Vesperinas et al., 2001). Consequently, the composition of many plant communities is changing to the extent that completely new assemblages are appearing. In addition, there is a parallel change in plant distribution and the increased threat of extinction of species at the edge of their geographical and altitudinal ranges -- particularly poorly-dispersing endemics. The ecological implications of these changes and the effects on the services that these ecosystems provide are not always clear. Together with the emergence of invasive non-native species, these factors will have challenging consequences for long-term biodiversity conservation (Gitay et al., 2002) and the ability of Europe to meet its target to halt biodiversity loss, not least in relation to the favourable status of Natura 2000 sites.
The adaptive capacity of species is linked to genetic diversity and this too might change under climate change; sensitive and valuable relic populations will be particularly affected.

Scientific references

  • References Bakkenes, M.; Eickhout, B. and Alkemade, R., 2006. Impacts of different climate stabilisation scenarios on plants species in Europe. Global Environmental Change 16: 19-28. Gitay, H.; Suarez, A.; Watson, R. T. and Dokken, D. J., 2002. Climate change and biodiversity; IPCC Technical paper 5, April 2002, 77pp. Huntley, B., 2007. Climatic change and the conservation of European biodiversity: Towards the development of adaptation strategies. Bern Convention Standing Committee on Climate Change. Council of Europe, Strasbourg. IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Parry, M. L.; Canziani, O. F.; Palutikof, J. P.; van der Linden, P. J. and Hanson, C. E. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. Kullman, L., 2006. Long-term geobotanical observations of climate change impacts in the Scandes of West-Central Sweden. Nordic Journal of Botany 24: 445-467. Copenhagen. Kullman, L., 2007. Tree line population monitoring of Pinus sylvestris in the Swedish Scandes, 1973-2005: implications for tree line theory and climate change ecology. Journal of Ecology 95: 41-52. Pauli, H.; Gottfried, M.; Reiter, K.; Klettner, C. and Grabherr, G., 2007. Signals of range expansions and contractions of vascular plants in the high Alps: observations (1994-2004) at the GLORIA master site Schrankogel, Tyrol, Austria . Global Change Biology 13, 147-156. Sobrino Vesperinas, E.; González Moreno, A.; Sanz Elorza, M.; Dana Sánchez, E.; Sánchez Mata, D. and Gavilán, R., 2001. The expansion of thermophilic plants in the Iberian Peninsula as a sign of climatic change. 'Fingerprints' of climate change -- adapted behaviour and shifting species ranges (ed. by Walther, G.-R.; Burga, C. A. and Edwards, P. J.), pp. 163-184. Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, New York. Thuiller, W.; Lavorel, S.; Araújo, M. B.; Sykesand, M. T. and Prentice, I. C., 2005. Climate change threatens plant diversity in Europe. The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences US 102: 8245-8250. Walther, G-R.; Berger, S. and Sykes, M. T., 2005. An ecological 'footprint' of climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B -- Biological Sciences 272: 1427-1432.

Policy context and targets

Context description

In April 2009 the European Commission presented a White Paper on the framework for adaptation policies and measures to reduce the European Union's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The aim is to increase the resilience to climate change of health, property and the productive functions of land, inter alia by improving the management of water resources and ecosystems. More knowledge is needed on climate impact and vulnerability but a considerable amount of information and research already exists which can be shared better through a proposed Clearing House Mechanism. The White Paper stresses the need to mainstream adaptation into existing and new EU policies. A number of Member States have already taken action and several have prepared national adaptation plans. The EU is also developing actions to enhance and finance adaptation in developing countries as part of a new post-2012 global climate agreement expected in Copenhagen (Dec. 2009). For more information see: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/index_en.htm

Targets

No targets have been specified

Related policy documents

No related policy documents have been specified

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Data sets uncertainty

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Data sources

Generic metadata

Topics:

DPSIR: Impact
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • CLIM 022
Temporal coverage:
,

Contacts and ownership

EEA Contact Info

Hans-Martin Füssel

Ownership

EEA Management Plan

2008 2.3.1 (note: EEA internal system)

Dates

First draft created:
08 Sep 2008, 12:00 AM
Publish date:
08 Sep 2008, 12:00 AM
Last modified:
28 Jun 2016, 05:51 PM

Permalinks

Document Actions

For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/distribution-of-plant-species/distribution-of-plant-species-assessment or scan the QR code.

PDF generated on 29 May 2017, 07:13 PM

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