Coastal areas

Indicator Assessment
Prod-ID: IND-180-en
Also known as: CLIM 041
expired Created 08 Sep 2008 Published 08 Sep 2008 Last modified 28 Jun 2016
7 min read
This page was archived on 08 May 2015 with reason: No more updates will be done
Coastal flooding can lead to important losses. By 2100, the population in the main coastal European cities exposed to sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems is expected to be about 4 million and the exposed assets more than EUR 2 trillion (without adaptation). Future projections of sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems show potentially large increases in the risk of coastal flooding. These could have significant economic costs (without adaptation), with recent estimates in the range of 12 to 18 billion EUR/year for Europe in 2080 under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. The same estimates indicate that adaptation could significantly reduce this risk to around EUR 1 billion.

This indicator is discontinued because data availability does not fully meet the requirements for EEA indicators.

Updated information on this topic is available in Sections 3.2, 4.4.3 and 5.5.2 of the EEA Report No 12/2012 (http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/climate-impacts-and-vulnerability-2012).

Key messages

  • Coastal flooding can lead to important losses. By 2100, the population in the main coastal European cities exposed to sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems is expected to be about 4 million and the exposed assets more than EUR 2 trillion (without adaptation).
  • Future projections of sea-level rise and associated impacts on coastal systems show potentially large increases in the risk of coastal flooding. These could have significant economic costs (without adaptation), with recent estimates in the range of 12 to 18 billion EUR/year for Europe in 2080 under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. The same estimates indicate that adaptation could significantly reduce this risk to around EUR 1 billion.

Modelled number of people flooded across Europe's coastal areas in 1961-1990 and in the 2080s

Modelled number of people flooded across Europe's coastal areas in 1961-1990 and in the 2080s

Note: The map shows the modelled number of people flooded across Europe's coastal areas

Data source:

JRC PESETA project: http://peseta.jrc.ec.europa.eu/docs/Costalareas.html

Downloads and more info
DINAS-COASTS DG research project results show impacts increasing significantly without adaptation: in the 2080s under the A2 SRES scenario, it is estimated that around 2 000 to 17 000 km2 of land in Europe could be permanently lost, leading to 0.1 to 1.3 million people in Europe experiencing coastal flooding each year, depending on the climate sensitivity. The economic costs of these events are estimated in the range of 12 to 18 billion euro/year for Europe in 2080 (current prices). Large areas of coastal wetlands are also threatened, with the highest relative losses on the Mediterranean and Baltic coasts.
ABI (2006) estimates that a 40 cm rise in sea levels will put an extra 130 000 properties at risk of flooding in the United Kingdom. In total 400 000 properties will be at risk, up nearly 50 % on the current number. Without improvements to existing flood defences, the costs of a major coastal flood could soar by 400 % to as much as GBP 16 billion. Essential services and lives will also be at risk, e.g. 15 % of fire and ambulance stations and 12 % of hospitals and schools are in flood-risk areas. The elderly will be particularly affected as the number living on, or moving to, the coast is well above the national average.
Using the same climate and sea-level projection as above (A2 scenario in the 2080s), with hard adaptation measures (dike building and beach nourishment) included, the DINAS-COAST Consortium and the PESETA project suggest that the land loss falls to less than 1 000 km2 and the economic costs to around 1 billion euro/year. The adaptation costs (mainly coast protection with dikes) are estimated at some 1 billion euro/year, but these achieve considerable reductions in the residual damage.
ABI (2006) also estimates that spending around GBP 6-8.5 billion on improving coastal defences would have a substantial impact on damages, both now and in the future. In other words, they would virtually pay for themselves in a single incident, ignoring the wider social and economic costs that arise from regional damage. But of course sea defences do not simply operate on a single occasion: in reality defences would prevent many less severe storm surges from causing damage. Typically this type of capital investment may deliver benefits over its lifetime worth seven times the cost. The benefits from this investment will be even greater if the frequency of storms increases in line with predictions.
Recent work (OECD, 2008) assessed exposure to a 1 in 100 year flood event, looking at population and asset value exposed now and with sea-level rise in 2100 for the following cities: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Hamburg, London, Copenhagen, Helsinki, Marseille-Aix-en- Provence, Athens, Napoli, Lisbon, Porto, Barcelona, Stockholm, and Glasgow. For these cities, the exposed population increases from 2.3 million to 4.0 million, and the exposed assets from EUR 240 to EUR 1 400 billion (the values are dominated by London, Amsterdam, and Rotterdam).

Indicator specification and metadata

Indicator definition

  • Modelled number of people flooded across Europe's coastal areas in 1961-1990 and in the 2080s

Units

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp161-192CC2008Ch6_7Adaptation_Consequences.pdf


Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

Climate change is an additional pressure and, as shown by the PESETA project on the effects of climate change on European coastal systems, is likely to have significant impacts on coastal zones, particularly through sea-level rise and changes in the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events, such as storms and associated surges. Coastal zones in Europe contain large human populations and significant socio-economic activities. They also support diverse ecosystems that provide important habitats and sources of food. One third of the EU population is estimated to live within 50 km of the coast, and some 140 000 km2 of land is currently within 1 m of sea level. Significantly inhabited coastal areas in countries such as the Netherlands, England, Denmark, Germany and Italy are already below normal high-tide levels, and more extensive areas are prone to flooding from storm surges. There are estimates of the physical impacts and economic costs to coasts in Europe from sea-level rise and flooding storm events. Results using the DIVA database and model produced from the DINAS-COASTS DG research project (DINAS-COAST Consortium) have been developed for Europe in the PESETA project.
However, there are many possible adaptation measures that can minimise the impacts of sea-level rise and would have significant benefits (including soft measures) such as: coastal defences (e.g. physical barriers to flooding and coastal erosion such as dikes and flood barriers); realignment of coastal defences landwards; abandonment (managed or unmanaged); measures to reduce the energy of near-shore waves and currents; coastal morphological management; and resilience-building strategies. Despite some difficulties in estimation, there is an increasing literature reporting the direct costs of adaptation to sea-level rise and estimating optimal levels of protection based on cost-benefit analysis.
Recent work (OECD, 2008) has also looked at threats to current and future major coastal cities from sea-level rise (0.5 metres global average) and storm surges.

Scientific references

  • No rationale references available

Policy context and targets

Context description

In April 2009 the European Commission presented a White Paper on the framework for adaptation policies and measures to reduce the European Union's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The aim is to increase the resilience to climate change of health, property and the productive functions of land, inter alia by improving the management of water resources and ecosystems. More knowledge is needed on climate impact and vulnerability but a considerable amount of information and research already exists which can be shared better through a proposed Clearing House Mechanism. The White Paper stresses the need to mainstream adaptation into existing and new EU policies. A number of Member States have already taken action and several have prepared national adaptation plans. The EU is also developing actions to enhance and finance adaptation in developing countries as part of a new post-2012 global climate agreement expected in Copenhagen (Dec. 2009). For more information see: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/index_en.htm

Targets

No targets have been specified

Related policy documents

No related policy documents have been specified

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp161-192CC2008Ch6_7Adaptation_Consequences.pdf

Methodology for gap filling

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Data sets uncertainty

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/eea_report_2008_4/pp193-207CC2008_ch8_Data_gaps.pdf

Rationale uncertainty

No uncertainty has been specified

Data sources

Metadata

Topics:

information.png Tags:
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DPSIR: Impact
Typology: Descriptive indicator (Type A - What is happening to the environment and to humans?)
Indicator codes
  • CLIM 041
Temporal coverage:
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information.png Geographic coverage:

Countries

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Geographical areas

Dates

First draft created:
08 Sep 2008, 12:00 AM
Publish date:
08 Sep 2008, 12:00 AM
Last modified:
28 Jun 2016, 05:50 PM

EEA Contact Info

Hans-Martin Füssel

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For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/coastal-areas/coastal-areas-assessment-published-sep-2008 or scan the QR code.

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